In 1929, the world was on the verge of: stock market crash, commodity crash, banking crisis, economic depression and WW2. So stocks melted up 25% in 13 weeks during that summer.

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by mark000

Start of June 1929 DJIA was 300. Start of September 380. That’s a 25% gain in 3 months. A full blown delusional manic meltup. Then the worst crash ever in October and by mid November the DJIA was 50% below the September all time high.

Outlook is as doomish today. Europe and China economies are very weak. US regional banks have cancer. Financial plumbing problems developing in US and China. Commercial real estate and zombie companies all going to die if rates stay this high. Peace in the Middle East still infinity years away. Big war overdue. Etc etc……..

IMO what is happening to stocks right now isn’t good, it’s an extremely bad sign. Stocks are currently up ~15% in the last 8 weeks.
Prediction: January 2024 things clearly start to go to hell.

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