Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Something big has changed in the financial system. A market most people barely paid attention to has exploded. Private credit grew from roughly $500 billion in 2020 to around $2 trillion today. Some estimates are even higher depending on what counts. The industry expects it could reach around $4 trillion by 2030. The appeal was …
Trump family’s crypto firm World Liberty Financial to receive approval for a national trust bank license from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The OCC expects to advance the banking charter for USD1 on and off-ramps despite ethics concerns and political scrutiny. Trump Family’s World Liberty Financial Nears Securing Bank License from …
by Martin Armstrong For decades, Switzerland sold one thing better than perhaps any country on earth: privacy. That became its true export. People think of watches, chocolate, pharmaceuticals, or skiing resorts, but Switzerland’s real business was protecting capital from governments. That was the foundation of modern offshore banking. Switzerland has destroyed the very industry that …
A $2 billion injection of federal funding is giving the quantum computing sector a much-needed shot of adrenaline. But beneath the enthusiasm lies a far more sobering reality. That’s according to Moody’s, which designated quantum technology as the next major cyber threat facing financial institutions in a sector report this week. The credit rating agency …
Private credit market hits $2 trillion with banks insurers and pensions dangerously tangled in. FSB warns the sector has never faced a real downturn and data is too patchy to track dangers. Bailey just admitted the shadow banking bomb is wired up and ticking. FSB warns in a new report that traditional banks, insurers and …
On Tuesday, April 14, at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, CEO Georges Elhedery said something on live Bloomberg television that should have detonated every energy desk on earth. It did not. Because nobody is reading what it actually means. “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, …
Cracks in the US private credit market are widening: Investors requested a record -$14.0 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is up +146% from -$5.7 billion in Q4 2025 and +278% higher than the -$3.7 billion in the full year 2024. Meanwhile, just… pic.twitter.com/wBJ3bUSW1X — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April …
When the fortress starts building a moat against $120 oil, the narrative has flipped. Iran War Risks Oil Price Shocks: Dimon JPMorgan CEO warns of sticky inflation, higher interest rates amid geopolitical tensions. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that the war in Iran poses a significant risk of oil and commodity price shocks, potentially …
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) has introduced the Know Your American Customer Act, a bill designed to restrict illegal migrants from accessing the American banking system. The legislation mandates that U.S. financial institutions verify the legal status of new customers to ensure compliance with immigration laws. A statement from the Treasury to The National Pulse appears …
HSBC layoffs soon? Wall Street giant may slash 20,000 roles amid AI-led overhaul, says reporthttps://t.co/5gTwVV9Vdz — Mint (@livemint) March 19, 2026 Fears of an AI-driven jobs cull on Wall Street are intensifying after banking giant HSBC revealed it is weighing sweeping layoffs that could hit up to 20,000 workers. The London-based lender is considering cutting …
Lender of last resort The 2023 banking crisis was three times worse than 2008. The upcoming one, in my opinion, will be six times worse than 2023. pic.twitter.com/cGLkWGDf7P — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 14, 2026 Why does @jimcramer always pick March to crash the stock market? March 11th, 2008: “Bear Stearns is FINE”… Cramer …
Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the financial system actually is right now. And it started cracking TODAY. Step 1 → JPMorgan just marked down its private credit loans and RESTRICTED lending to private credit funds. Step 2 → Morgan Stanley is now BLOCKING redemptions at its private credit fund after withdrawals surged. Step 3 …
WASHINGTON, March 3 (Reuters) – The U.S. financial services industry is on heightened alert for potential cyberattacks amid the unfolding U.S. war in Iran, with firms stepping up monitoring for threats that often rise during periods of geopolitical conflict, said executives and analysts. The killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last weekend in an …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, How much private credit has been put in place but isn’t in the official credit total is unknown and very likely unknowable. That means total systemic risk is also unknowable. Everyone wants to lend us money now, even though they’re not banks: the insurance company Progressive offered us a loan, …
How long before $250 trillion of hidden risk explodes in the financial system? World ‘blind’ to risks in booming $250tn shadow bank market The world’s top financial regulators have admitted they are blind to dangers lurking in the shadow banking sector. On Tuesday, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), a network of global watchdogs, said “severe …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1998841788585365948 Fed Chair Powell: Total PCE rises rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects… pic.twitter.com/q8MPm5lCA6 — FactPost (@factpostnews) December 10, 2025 …
JUST IN 🚨: Nasdaq $QQQ posts first red month since March 📉 It was a hell of a run 🫡 pic.twitter.com/SDBAZ4AMoN — Barchart (@Barchart) November 28, 2025 **NVIDIA** A concerning day for Nvidia: trading red amid a broad-based rally in equities, commodities, and precious metals. The broadening pattern is like a black hole…nothing escapes once …
The collapsing collateral pyramid: When MBS replaces Treasuries in repo, the system is running out of AAA ammunition. This is exactly how the shadow collateral system breaks: •Treasuries = pristine •MBS = haircut-heavy, riskier •Agencies = dead middle •Everything below = nuclear waste If the Fed is now vacuuming up MBS to keep funding markets …
Every company would be affected if the AI bubble were to burst, the head of Google’s parent firm Alphabet has told the BBC. Speaking exclusively to BBC News, Sundar Pichai said while the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) investment had been an “extraordinary moment”, there was some “irrationality” in the current AI boom. In comments …
Private credit has turned into the blind spot of American banking. It started small, just a niche corner for high-yield loans, and now it’s a $1.7 trillion machine that barely anyone can see inside. Banks keep pouring money into these private lenders, hundreds of billions at a time, but almost none of it shows up …
Wall Street’s most powerful bank is walking a tightrope between innovation and instability.By the end of 2025, JPMorgan plans to let institutional clients use Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans—a radical integration of crypto assets into the traditional credit system that comes at a moment when the financial foundation beneath that system is starting …
Sam Altman warns AI could outsmart banks and steal your money OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is warning banks and financial institutions about AI-driven fraud. He highlights how voice clones and deepfakes are already bypassing current security systems, posing a serious threat to people’s money. AI is becoming smarter and is helping humans in all possible …
The regional banking crisis 2.0 Soon. pic.twitter.com/ofFj6Qlpw7 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 30, 2025 Fun fact: US Banks’ reserves are very close to the same level where the 2023 US regional banks crisis began – the bubble standing upon these reserves is also much larger today than it was 2 years ago https://t.co/4RJlfMcjrK pic.twitter.com/mYEUwnfQ5p …
There are growing concerns – and a growing pile of evidence and reports – indicating the shadow banking system is suppressing potential losses for no legitimate reason. Here we examine where they are coming from and what the latest data shows.
In July 2025, 71 large US companies filed for bankruptcy. That is the highest monthly total since the pandemic lockdown peak in 2020. June saw 66 filings, and May had 64. Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1955262243320541630 The year-to-date total now stands at 446 bankruptcies, already surpassing full-year totals for 2021, which had 405, and 2022 with 373. This …
It looks like tough times could be on the horizon. ADP just posted its first negative print since March 2023: private payrolls dropped 33,000 in June. The labor market is contracting. pic.twitter.com/0YlIHDNwSz — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 6, 2025 Something is happening in the banking system. The Fed's Primary Credit Facility is about …
This is where we are RIGHT NOW and the banking crisis hasn’t even started yet – think about it, just think… @kshaughnessy2 https://t.co/Nf7XyLhn4P pic.twitter.com/J7A7OnKvXE — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 2, 2025 “Horrible” is a euphemism at this point https://t.co/OFL7LHgPPs — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 2, 2025 The delinquency trends for Core CRE (excludes multifamily, construction, …
