Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
People don’t realize what’s about to hit grocery stores this summer. In mid-March 2026 the United States fertilizer supply was at 75 percent of normal levels at the exact moment Corn Belt farmers were preparing their soil for planting. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately one-third of all internationally traded fertilizer, has been effectively …
by Michael Most people out there still seem to believe that the war in the Middle East will rapidly come to a conclusion and economic conditions will return to normal soon. Meanwhile, the price of physical oil is going absolutely nuts, the price of fertilizer is going absolutely nuts, and we are being warned that …
TRUMP IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR GROUND INVASION OF IRAN History laughs at armies who ignore the calendar. Russia’s winter destroyed Napoleon and Hitler. For Iran, it’s the summer that kills. Trump’s narrow window for a ground invasion is slamming shut. The Middle Eastern summer— just as brutal, just as unforgiving— will turn any …
So it has begun. This will jump by summer. — John Ravenda (@JohnRavenda) January 26, 2026 Only 23.1% of people made $100,000+/yr last year https://t.co/w2KnHXdAQj — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) January 26, 2026
via notayesmanseconomics It is time for another trip to a land down under and my attention has been piqued by this. Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for October rose to 4.8% from 4.7% prior, marking the highest reading since June. ( Forex Factory) That is from the Melbourne Institute and as you can see things are …
So, “Liar, liar, pants on fire” to all of Team Trump’s promises that you don’t pay for tariffs. by David Haggith Inflation is lighting the Donald’s backside on fire, whether he sees it or not. Wow! I know I said I was going to hold off on covering the full scope of inflation news until …
by David Haggith The monster arrived as a toothy baby left on the steps of the New York Stock Exchange, exactly as predicted here for early Summer, but wait until you see what it grows into by the end of summer. The TACO trade is the new action on Wall Street where investors are betting …
The 10Y–3M yield curve remains inverted, but the downtrend has been grinding sideways just below neutral (-0.07%) We've seen this movie before — summer 2023 and 2024 both saw similar counter-trend rallies that kept risk-on flows alive… until the uptrend resumed. Remember: it’s… pic.twitter.com/8ztD0Xinmm — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 8, 2025 Japanese 30 …
Heat waves rolled in early in 2025. June is already delivering record highs in many parts of the country. Your HVAC system might be strained, energy bills climbing and comfort slipping away. That’s when smart maintenance and tweaks pay off. Start with your air filter. Many homeowners use high MERV filters to block allergens, but …
Markets hit weekly high right after Israel strike but low summer liquidity could trigger another brutal crash… Oil is pointing to a new global deflation. That I predict will be outside of central bank control aka. a mass deleveraging event. pic.twitter.com/Srkj9RtjbJ — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 24, 2025 Today was the biggest down day for oil …
Every year, as temperatures rise and traders head off to the Hamptons or Europe, something strange happens. The market, no matter how tense the backdrop, often goes quiet. The headlines slow down. The volatility cools. And for all the chaos people expect, the crash never seems to arrive in summer. It is not just superstition …
Send in the A10s https://t.co/o66o60KlIK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 8, 2025 What’s happening in Los Angeles California right now is 100x worse than January 6th — Alec Lace (@AlecLace) June 7, 2025
Once again markets are celebrating a "strong" May jobs report, with 139K jobs beating estimates by 10K, while ignoring the 95K downward revisions to the prior two months. But beneath the surface, the May jobs report, which showed even slower job growth than the prior month, was… — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) June 6, 2025 The …
by Michael This summer, vast numbers of radical leftists that absolutely hate Donald Trump, vast numbers of protesters that are deeply angry about the war in the Middle East, vast numbers of people that are in this country illegally, and vast numbers of ultra-violent predatory criminals will cause chaos in the streets of major cities all …
NEW: 🇷🇺🇺🇦 The Ukraine talks between Trump and Putin have clearly FAILED Russia is preparing for a new massive offensive in Ukraine – multiple US media reports Russia has moved 50,000 troops from Kursk to Belgorod in preparation to capture the second largest city in Ukraine,… pic.twitter.com/VgDJATtFj9 — Megatron (@Megatron_ron) May 25, 2025 Ukraine tried …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says they plan to reduce leverage requirements for banks this summer. Reducing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) would allow banks to hold less capital against low-risk assets like Treasuries and reserves pic.twitter.com/fM0e8S6wmL — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 24, 2025
Summer 2025 calling! 🚗✨🍦 Gas prices are dropping to the lowest in YEARS ($3.08 on Memorial Day, possibly sub-$3 later this summer)! Where are you heading & what's your best road trip hack? 👇 pic.twitter.com/fR2LDX23uY — GasBuddy (@GasBuddy) May 20, 2025
Many Americans are finding this year that they either need to cancel their summer vacation altogether, or they need to modify their plans to a more affordable version of what they previously had in mind. Inflation is taking a larger toll on budgets than people thought and since travel is a discretionary expense people are …
Lower mortgage rates just don’t seem to be in the cards for this summer Sorry, Housing Market! pic.twitter.com/CCbABMbirx — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) May 12, 2025 https://twitter.com/Jedi_ant/status/1921663824295350763 pic.twitter.com/UCl19LyfeK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 12, 2025
by Michael Thousands of products that are made in China will soon start disappearing from store shelves in the United States. If a trade deal is not made with China very soon, the summer of 2025 will be “the summer of empty shelves”. According to the Trump administration, “U.S. goods imports from China in 2024 totaled $438.9 …
BTC/M2 is exhibiting a pattern similar to 2021, indicating the possibility of a rally through August, followed by a significant top. pic.twitter.com/t23WXeJmTv — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 2, 2025 S&P 500 may not have bottomed warns Goldman Sachs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/O2ETYoGk5Z — Barchart (@Barchart) May 2, 2025
⚠️BRACE FOR MORE US JOB MARKET DATA REVISIONS⚠️ Nonfarm payrolls will likely be revised DOWNWARD by another ~300,000 jobs for 2Q 2024. This is according to the QCEW data released by the BLS. If this trend continues, it will turn out that August and October saw JOB LOSSES. pic.twitter.com/rA3cgv6En6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December …
July 2024 was “the hottest July since complete observations began in 1961, and the hottest single month in the history of observation”, state broadcaster CCTV said, citing weather authorities. In August “most parts of China have experienced a hotter summer than in previous years,” the weather service said. The major population centres of Shanghai, Hangzhou …
Manufacturing and retail jobs can ebb and flow based on demand flows. What about finance and insurance? First time all summer, possibly all year, these industries were called out as sources of layoffs. pic.twitter.com/yadNgeURB3 — Neely (@NeelyTamminga) August 1, 2024
https://x.com/ReefInsights/status/1813926775497351608 https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1813927966432460975 Foreign buyers are fleeing the U.S. housing market, with sales at a record low International buyers are scaling back partly due to a strong U.S. dollar, the National Association of Realtors says A previous version of this story misstated the time period during which sales to foreign home buyers were tracked. Foreign buyers …
