This discrepancy could lead to the underestimation of employment growth, which is why your estimate of a potential bump in the unemployment rate makes sense.
My back of an envelope calculation implies that the US unemployment rate will raise from 4.1 to 4.5-4.6% if the expected birth/death model adjustments are fully implementet into the unemployment rate.
— Simon Says (@Seniorstrategen) February 3, 2025
— Simon Says (@Seniorstrategen) February 3, 2025