bls Archives - Citizen Watch Report

If the BLS model adjusts fully, we could see a significant uptick in unemployment.

February 3, 2025 10:01 am

This discrepancy could lead to the underestimation of employment growth, which is why your estimate of a potential bump in the unemployment rate makes sense. My back of an envelope calculation implies that the US unemployment rate will raise from …

Key price increases over 4 years: Auto insurance +59%, fuel oil +44.5%, shelter +24.4%… BLS reports inflation accelerated to 4.8% annualized.

January 15, 2025 7:30 pm

Price Increases over last 4 years…CPI Medical Care: +9.5%CPI Apparel: +12.0%CPI New Cars: +19.0%CPI Used Cars: +19.6%CPI Food at home: +22.7%CPI Shelter: +24.4%CPI Food away from home: +25.1%CPI Electricity: +28.2%CPI Gas Utilities: +31.6%US Home Prices: +38.3%CPI… — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) …

Bulls are misled by GDP, BLS models, and volatile assets like Bitcoin. The real unemployment rate is 7.2%.

December 15, 2024 2:18 pm

This happens in Canada too! — Mothersilverape (@mothersilverape) December 15, 2024 https://twitter.com/j77324/status/1868113104136986809 https://twitter.com/dailyjobcuts/status/1867920697030578185 The labor market continues to weaken, hard to see a rebound in positive momentum at maximum employment. Employment to pop ratio is finally declining, however. pic.twitter.com/jRvCxKqDYI — …