If the BLS model adjusts fully, we could see a significant uptick in unemployment.
This discrepancy could lead to the underestimation of employment growth, which is why your estimate of a potential bump in the unemployment rate makes sense. My back of an envelope calculation implies that the US unemployment rate will raise from 4.1 to 4.5-4.6% if the expected birth/death model adjustments are fully implementet into the unemployment …