Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Real-time market analysis with charts, signals, and coverage of key financial and geopolitical developments.
After the U.S. reached a deal with Iran, the focus may now be moving to another nuclear problem. South Korea’s president said Trump told him: The time has come to focus on North Korea’s nuclear program. The comment came during their meeting at the G7 summit in France. South Korea also raised another issue. The …
Awesome rant: Bravo! pic.twitter.com/QUwXg7uYJz — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 19, 2026
The U.S. Labor Department just sent letters to all 50 states and territories telling them to do more to stop unemployment fraud, waste, and abuse. The warning? If states do not improve their systems, they could lose federal funding used to run unemployment programs. According to the announcement, this is the first time in U.S. …
This is one of those numbers where the context matters. Cushing, Oklahoma oil storage is down to around 20 million barrels. That is the lowest level since 2014 and close to the point where the physical oil market can start getting much tighter and more expensive to operate. Over the past few weeks, inventories have …
SpaceX just went public on June 12. Now, only days later, bankers are preparing to talk with investors about a new bond sale worth at least $20 billion. The reason? SpaceX wants to refinance a $20 billion bridge loan it used earlier for the xAI deal. The loan does not mature until September 2027, so …
This number is what caught my attention. China’s government debt to GDP ratio jumped from 90.4% to 99.2% in one year. Almost a 10 percentage point increase. That means debt grew much faster than the economy. China’s official GDP growth in 2025 was about 5.0%, but government borrowing increased at a much faster pace. And …
The statistic that surprised me wasn’t the number of young adults living with their parents. It was this: 70% of them already have jobs. We’re talking about 25.2 million Americans between 18 and 34 years old living at home. About one-third of that entire age group. The easy explanation is that they’re unemployed. Except most …
Ukraine has joined Israel in trying to spike global oil prices. This is what they’re doing to Russia’s oil refineries. pic.twitter.com/kYVgTrZ6pP — ADAM (@adamemedia1) June 18, 2026
The SpaceX hype right now is all about one idea. SpaceX has a market value of roughly $2.5 trillion, so when it gets added to the Nasdaq 100, people think index funds will be forced to buy an enormous amount of stock. Sounds simple. But there is one detail a lot of people seem to …
Democrat Senator Chris Van Hollen is backing a proposal that could allow many lower and middle income workers to pay little or no federal income tax on part of their earnings. The thresholds are roughly $46,000 for single filers and $92,000 for married couples. And according to estimates, the plan could affect roughly half of …
There is one thing about this market that keeps showing up. The biggest warning signs are not coming from people saying AI is fake. They are coming from people saying the AI story might be real… but the money going into it could be getting ahead of reality. Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is warning that …
Still much lower than normal, but at least improving pic.twitter.com/NLvo8N7BcD — Rawat (@RawatD2030) June 19, 2026 BREAKING: Iran has declared that ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, setting the stage for future tolling arrangements by saying it could introduce “insurance fees," per Bloomberg. Details include: 1. All vessels that transit the …
This is the part where the numbers start looking a little strange. The top 10 U.S. companies are now worth more than $25 trillion combined. That is bigger than China’s entire GDP. And Nvidia alone is now worth more than the size of some major economies. The crazy part is not just one company. The …
This is the part that caught my attention. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. That sounds boring. But the message behind it was not. The new dot plot showed a big change. The market was looking for future cuts, but now the Fed is sending a much more cautious signal. No rate …
by Michael Why is there so much excitement about an agreement with Iran that literally resolves none of the key issues that the two sides were fighting about? The long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz is not resolved. The war between Israel and Hezbollah is not resolved. Nobody seems to have any idea where …
Reason is Israel attack in south Lebanon. Iran claim this breach clause 1 of the new MOU that sign less than 24 hour before. MOU include full ceasefire on all front include Lebanon. Iran say the agreement become useless if only Iran follow the rule. US Israel side say they still committed but situation on …
$DXY is now at its highest level since May 2025. More pain ahead for risk-on assets. pic.twitter.com/FRazq262mD — Ted (@TedPillows) June 18, 2026 Dollar making a new 52 week high today. $DXY After the New Fed chairman has first FOMC meeting. pic.twitter.com/nAY7uBwpkH — Edward Dowd (@DowdEdward) June 18, 2026 FRED real time 10Y2Y data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y …
German auto crisis just deepened byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts BMW issue profit warning for 2026. They cut expected automotive EBIT margin to only 1 to 3 percent instead of 4 to 6 percent. This mean profit drop over 60 percent in some measures. Main reasons are sharp fall in demand in China and extra costs from Iran …
I’m so glad I wasn’t young and stupid when the electric car boom hit the market. I may have ended up like this. AC
by Michael Those that believe that the global energy crisis is going to be magically solved by a “memorandum of understanding” that is already being violated by both sides are going to be in for a very rude awakening. As you will see below, the Iranians have continued to launch drones at commercial vessels in …
Guy meant to short some random ticker but nuked the PowerPoint consultant giant right before earnings. Accenture stock craters and the accidental weekly puts print like crazy. Bought ACN puts instead of ACM, got 3000% byu/Jacker247 inwallstreetbets
This is up 10.5 percent from 717 dollars same period last year. NEADA report say this is record high because electricity prices rise and summer very hot. Since 2020 cooling costs up almost 40 percent even after inflation. One in six households already behind on utility bills. Many low income families under 50k dollars struggle …
The 30% rule says rent + utilities should not be more than 30% of gross monthly income. This old guideline from 1960s-1980s. In 2024-2026 data, 49% of US renter households (22.7 million) spend over 30% on rent and utilities. This is record high. About 26% (12.1 million) spend over 50%. Rents rose faster than renter …
Concentration and risk both maxed out at the same time. Passive equity funds are taking over the market: The three largest S&P 500 ETFs now have a record $2.6 trillion in assets under management (AUM). This represents 17.4% of AUM in all US ETFs and 11.9% of AUM in global ETFs. The S&P 500 ETF, …
by Martin Armstrong After spending years defending him, campaigning for him, endorsing him, and standing beside him while anyone who questioned his fitness was attacked as a conspiracy theorist, Hillary Clinton now says Biden made a “terrible mistake” by running again. That is convenient, but the problem is that Biden did not act alone. The …
May 19, 2025 …He had been quite bullish on China, owning large Chinese stocks like Alibaba, Baidu, JD.Com, and PDD Holdings. But after selling these stocks, he also purchased put options on these names. Put options are similar to call options but in the opposite direction, essentially betting that a stock price will decline. Burry …
via schiffsovereign On April 3, 1973, a Motorola engineer named Martin Cooper stood on a sidewalk in Manhattan, raised a two-and-a-half-pound prototype to his ear, and placed the world’s first handheld cellular phone call. The man he dialed was his chief rival at Bell Labs. Cooper wanted him to hear the news firsthand: that Motorola …
President Trump confirmed Apple will partner with Intel for chip design and production. This is a massive strategic pivot to onshore Apple’s massive silicon demand. Intel shares surged 6.5% premarket on the news. Apple has been leaning heavily on TSMC, but the supply chain risk is too high. If this works, it changes the entire …
Accenture locked a massive $4.18 billion contract for cybersecurity services. Yet, the stock is dipping after they lowered their forward guidance. The market is punishing them for the cost of maintaining that growth. Cybersecurity demand is infinite, but margin pressure is real. They are struggling to bridge the gap between AI hype and actual bottom-line …
Banks syndicating massive European bond sales at unprecedented pace H1 2026 already beats full pandemic emergency borrowing Italy alone raised $81 billion while Germany UK and others set records US debt service headed toward $17,000 per household by 2036 Politicians treating record borrowing as the new normal U.S. DEBT CRISIS DEEPENS: INTEREST COSTS COULD HIT …