Our supply chain is falling apart

The Strait of Hormuz is locked down and that means the cheap-goods party is officially over… Shipping costs are through the roof and they aren’t coming down anytime soon… The shelves at the big stores are already looking a little …

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Forget Picking the AI Winner. Buy the Shovels.

via gainspainscapital The geopolitical world has entered a kind of “Groundhog Day.” A cease-fire was technically declared between the U.S. and Iran in early April. However, since that time, little if any progress has been made in peace proceedings. Instead, the world …

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The market is living in a fantasy land

Everyone is betting on a ceasefire deal that hasn’t even been signed yet … Bond yields are looking ugly and nobody believes that inflation is going away … Smart money is dumping everything Middle East-related and piling into gold as …

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The Cleveland Fed’s CPI nowcast has reached the highest level in three years. Fed futes now believe by next July there is a 75% chance of one or more rate hikes. Gas prices remain ATH’s despite falling oil prices

We are trapped in a cycle where the cost of living keeps climbing while the central bank pretends they have the situation under control. They keep talking about “transitory” issues while the grocery bill and the gas pump tell us …

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