This number is what caught my attention.
China’s government debt to GDP ratio jumped from 90.4% to 99.2% in one year.
Almost a 10 percentage point increase.
That means debt grew much faster than the economy.
China’s official GDP growth in 2025 was about 5.0%, but government borrowing increased at a much faster pace.
And remember, this is only government debt.
When you include companies and households, China’s total debt load is estimated to be over 300% of GDP.
The biggest pressure points are not just Beijing’s balance sheet.
They are local government borrowing and the unfinished problems from the property market.
The important difference is China is not facing an immediate crisis because most of its debt is in its own currency and controlled inside its financial system.
But the math is getting harder.
When debt grows faster than the economy, every slowdown makes the burden heavier.
The question is no longer just:
“How much debt does China have?”
The bigger question is:
“Can growth keep up with the debt?”
Because if growth slows further, that is when a big debt number starts becoming a bigger problem.