Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Real-time market analysis with charts, signals, and coverage of key financial and geopolitical developments.
JPMorgan and Goldman just cut Hong Kong staff from accessing Claude Corporate world quietly walking back frontier model access OpenAI’s cash furnace keeps raging with no profits showing up SpaceX listing hype drawing Burry’s eye but he skips the expensive short New Fed chair demands real inflation fight instead of more easy money Narrative that …
This is one of the most reliable sell signals in history. Just look at TIME’s latest issue. I’ve been doing this since 1981, and when I see a cover like that, I don’t get excited. Because history has a brutal sense of humor about moments exactly like this one: In 1979, BusinessWeek ran the most …
We lost. It’s that simple. Iran fought against 10 countries by itself and won Incredible — Nostra, House of Gold (@Nostre_damus) June 17, 2026 Main points from the text: Permanent end to war on all fronts (including Lebanon). $300 billion reconstruction money for Iran. Lift all US/UN sanctions + release frozen funds (up to $100B). …
Ukraine send many drones to Moscow area. They hit Moscow Oil Refinery (Kapotnya, big fuel supplier for city) second time this week. Fire and black smoke visible. Russian say they shoot down almost 200 drones near Moscow, total 555 across country. But some get through and damage refinery. This cause air traffic disruption — all …
BMW cut its 2026 profit forecast big time. They now expect automotive operating margin only 1-3% instead of 4-6% before. Main reason is fast drop in demand in China (their biggest market), especially for non-electric cars. Competition from local brands very strong. Also, Iran war cause higher energy costs and bad consumer feeling around world. …
by Michael I cannot understand the people that are dancing around and celebrating the “memorandum of understanding” now that we have the full text of the agreement. After reviewing the document, I am having a difficult time processing how horrifyingly bad it is. JD Vance and the other U.S. negotiators essentially surrendered and gave the Iranians …
Years of speculation, easy money, and allegations of widespread mortgage fraud pushed prices to levels that never made sense. Now the unwind is ugly. A Brampton detached home just sold at a 43% loss. Missed mortgage payments in Ontario are surging. And some are still… https://t.co/vjXrHt8HxP pic.twitter.com/DCWxYxGUIX — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) June 18, 2026 Recent similar …
Markets trying hard to pretend yesterday never happened Dip buyers rushing in like nothing changed Futures clawing back most of the losses pic.twitter.com/5KsTqccQRx — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) June 18, 2026 There’s an old saying: “Don’t fight the Fed” People will though. https://t.co/g9mMkgz7Op — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 18, 2026 Yield curve inversion inbound. Straight from the …
President Trump sign hard copy of draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran during dinner at Palace of Versailles after G7 meetings. This after digital signing few days before by Trump, Vance and Iranian side. Deal aim to end recent war, open Strait of Hormuz (with some conditions), start 60 days talk on nuclear and …
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than many investors expected, underscoring his commitment to restoring price stability and signaling less appetite for easy monetary policy. “He is absolutely telling you that he plans on delivering on price stability. So that means… we’re not going …
US side emphasizes toll-free passage (at least initially) and negotiations on future administration (involving Oman too). Iran emphasizes sovereignty, “services,” and that things won’t go back to exactly how they were before the war. 🚨 BREAKING 🇮🇷 IRAN’S TOP NEGOTIATOR QALIBAF JUST SAID LIVE: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL NOT RETURN TO PRE-WAR CONDITIONS. IRAN …
Interesting realtor take on the current housing market: pic.twitter.com/ylC89h0jp5 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 17, 2026 Homebuilder confidence stuck in prolonged slump not seen since foreclosure crisis (TNND) — Another report pointed to weakness in the housing market, as builder confidence fell two points to a Housing Market Index reading of just 35 in June, …
We’re learning more about this peace deal between the United States and Iran. In February, former Israeli intelligence officer Ari Ben-Menashe said Benjamin Netanyahu is about to release the real Epstein files in an effort to sabotage the peace deal if the US and Iran put something together.
Trump family’s crypto firm World Liberty Financial to receive approval for a national trust bank license from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The OCC expects to advance the banking charter for USD1 on and off-ramps despite ethics concerns and political scrutiny. Trump Family’s World Liberty Financial Nears Securing Bank License from …
There was a time when major companies were launching NFTs. Mainstream media coverage. Sold by top auction houses. All kinds of contrived “use cases”. Now it’s an irrelevant asset with bagholders who are not getting their money back. I think it’s a microcosm of how BTC is going to fail. The critical mass of gamblers …
The $12 poverty tax byu/gashtal_man inFluentInFinance You can avoid fee if keep $1,500 minimum daily balance OR get $250+ direct deposit each month OR join their rewards program. Many poor people who can’t meet this pay the $12. Post call it “$12 poverty tax” because being low money cost you extra. Comments many angry, say …
Americans are increasingly raiding their retirement savings just to stay afloat (housing + medical costs). Even with strong stock market gains (which boosted average 401k balances to record highs), many people are still struggling. Passive investing (automatic 401k contributions going into index funds like VOO/SPY) has been one of the biggest drivers of the bull …
SpaceX IPO’d around $1.75–1.8T valuation (priced at $135/share), raised record ~$75B. Stock jumped fast, pushing market cap over $2T+ quickly. 2025 revenue: ~$18.7B (mostly Starlink). Reported net loss in 2025 (around $5B range in filings, partly due to heavy capex on Starship, xAI integration, etc.). Starlink itself is profitable/growing fast. Valuation is extremely high vs …
by ragingbull10 I’m genuinely trying to understand the math. Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion today. Current numbers are approximately: Revenue: ~$100B/year Net income: ~$4B/year Revenue growth: roughly flat over the past year P/E: ~300x Let’s assume Tesla achieves enormous success. By 2035: FSD works. Robotaxis are widely deployed. Optimus becomes a real business. Energy …
Rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Unanimous 12-0 vote (no dissents). Fed says inflation remains elevated. Dot plot (their rate projections) turned more hawkish: 9 members see at least 1 rate hike this year. 5 see 2 hikes. 1 even sees 3 hikes. Only 8 see rates staying flat. Just 1 sees a cut. Market reaction right …
First he put $2.7 million on Netherlands to beat Japan. Game end 2-2 draw, he lose all. Next day he put $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt. Game end 1-1 draw, he lose again. Total loss about $4.2 million in less than 24 hours. https://www.inc.com/georgia-fearn/single-polymarket-trader-lost-four-million-on-world-cup-in-less-than-24-hours/91361322
via Graham Summers, MBA It’s getting harder and harder to bet against Trump. Time and again the President appears to be blustering his way through another delicate geopolitical/ economic situation. Time and again numerous pundits or political figures with allegedly better qualifications and more nuanced insights on the issue tell the media that the President …
Congress (House and Senate) agree on big housing bill called 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. Main point: Large institutional investors (hedge funds, big companies) who already own 350 or more single-family homes cannot buy more existing ones. They still can build new homes for rent (build-to-rent). This part come from Trump push earlier in …
Spending is exploding (CapEx records, big acquisitions like Cursor). Pricing power is cracking (token costs falling, Microsoft looking at cheaper Chinese models). Competition is heating up fast from open-source and lower-cost models. Big players (Microsoft, SpaceX/Elon) are making aggressive moves because the economics of frontier AI are getting tough. ⚠️Is the AI pricing bubble starting …
Stocks now trade at higher valuations than just before 1929 crash. Main measure is Shiller CAPE ratio (or P/E10). It looks at current price vs average earnings of last 10 years (adjusted for inflation). In September 1929, CAPE reach about 32.5. Today in June 2026, CAPE sit at 40 to 41+. This is second highest …
Iranian crude production currently sits at 3.5 million barrels per day. Sanctions relief could trigger an immediate 15 percent drop in global energy prices. US lifting oil sanctions could hand Iran $100 billion within two years The US is effectively lifting sanctions on Iranian oil exports, despite its statements that funds will be transferred to …
Japan’s rate hike to 1 percent has shattered the yen carry trade. Hedge funds are being forced to sell dollar assets to cover losses. This is forcing a “forced liquidation” cycle that hurts the dollar. The Nikkei hit 70,000, but the euphoria is hiding the underlying panic. When Japanese investors bring their money home, the …
Companies are pouring $725 billion into data centers and chips this year. That is a 77% jump over 2025 and it is starting to break balance sheets. Free cash flow for the biggest tech giants is plummeting as a result. Investors are looking at the math and calling it a bubble. Retail investors are still …
by Martin Armstrong The financial press is celebrating reports that traders are betting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could begin returning to normal by August. Oil prices have fallen sharply on hopes of a U.S.-Iran agreement, and prediction markets are assigning better-than-even odds that vessel traffic will recover during the second half of this …
