I’ve never seen anything like this before. The current economy is so unpredictable that United is providing guidance under two different economic scenarios: One if the economy enters a recession, and one if it doesn’t.
Investor Update1 Issue Date: April 15, 2025
This Investor Update provides guidance and certain other forward-looking statements about United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”
or “UAL”). The information in this Investor Update contains the preliminary financial and operational outlook for the Company for second-
quarter and full-year 2025, among other items.
The Company’s outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the Company believes is impossible to predict this year with any
degree of confidence. Accordingly, two guidance benchmarks are provided below. We undertake no obligation to update this guidance as
circumstances evolve.
Stable Environment Scenario: While the Company is closely monitoring bookings, as of the date of this Investor Update, booking trends
have been stable. Therefore, if demand remains consistent with the weaker, but stabilized demand trends from the six weeks prior to this
Investor Update, along with the current forward fuel curve, the Company continues to expect to be within the initial guidance range of
$11.50 to $13.50 in adjusted diluted earnings per share.
Recessionary Environment Scenario: If the U.S. economy enters a recession, we are modeling an incremental 5 point reduction in our total
operating revenue in 2Q 2025 through 4Q 2025 compared to the stable environment scenario above. With that decrease in expected
revenue, along with further capacity reductions from United but assuming no further cost relief from fuel, the Company expects adjusted
diluted earnings per share of $7.00 to $9.00. For modeling purposes, each incremental 5 point reduction in revenue for the rest of the year
would equal approximately $4.50 in adjusted diluted earnings per share if there were no further fuel or capacity offsets.
https://ir.united.com/static-files/31e96da0-b3ce-48c5-960a-93556721eac0
We are truly rudderless in uncharted waters.
AC