Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
🚨 WARNING: OIL IS PRICING A BIGGER CRISIS THAN STOCKS Deutsche Bank just released the WHOLE crisis setup. Across previous oil-related geopolitical shocks, oil rose 26.9% on average, while equities fell 6.0% over 14 trading days. Now, oil pumped 46.6%, while the S&P dumped… pic.twitter.com/Dy0aOjmfyF — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) March 15, 2026 Jeff Currie from Goldman …
$SPX Alt | One more push. Marginal new high to 7025 to complete the structure — then it's over.$NDX already confirmed its top. $SPX and $DJI are next. Invalidation: 6760 pic.twitter.com/ye7AfySPNj — TRIGGER TRADES (@TriggerTrades) February 8, 2026 Expect more volatility in Equities next week! Nasdaq could likely move down to Daily 200SMA. And the …
The Trump Administration needs much weaker macro data then it is getting right now (if it wants more cuts) – especially on Friday for NFP… https://t.co/ieRTtttGSf pic.twitter.com/BqRpsp1VS3 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 8, 2026 THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have.– Consumer spending makes up …
Crazy to think that money supply is expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting. We’ve seen a $10T increase in global money supply in just the past 12 months. Now imagine what happens once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again — which, in my view, …
Most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can extend. It’s simple. If the business cycle extends, the crypto cycle extends. Bitcoin is a macro asset… pic.twitter.com/JrtWAqPJpT — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 20, 2025 Global freight shipments are literally as low as they were during the peak of the COVID pandemic …
Is this still “pure noise” or is the bond market reacting to macro news? pic.twitter.com/iXKsb48s9q — Steve Hou (@stevehou) September 8, 2025 THE ECONOMY IS WEAKENING – JAMIE DIMON — Kang (@thuhkang) September 9, 2025 Like the cuts before it, the 3-month is leading the way. A 0.25 cut is within the range of the …
Understanding cycles lets you rotate before the herd… Why is Macro important? Because you will beat the market by 700% If you understand Business Cycles – and allocate your Funds so that you are invested in Risk Assets when Business Cycles are bottoming, strengthening or strong – and in TLT when Business Cycles roll over …
Positioning for a market downturn in 2025 has become more tactical than ever especially after June’s macro fireworks and the July 11 CPI print looming ahead. Equities hover near record highs while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to about 4.42 %. Some traders now split their risk between long duration bond ETFs and targeted inverse …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1935035951115587783
Systematic macro funds sitting on cash Retail investors Fully loaded at the highs When the next shakeout comes and it’s coming guess who’s buying their bag at a discount pic.twitter.com/MlPNkecrnz — Miad (@ZFXtrading) April 26, 2025 https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1916193347380654356
I’ve never seen anything like this before. The current economy is so unpredictable that United is providing guidance under two different economic scenarios: One if the economy enters a recession, and one if it doesn’t. Investor Update1 Issue Date: April 15, 2025 This Investor Update provides guidance and certain other forward-looking statements about United Airlines …
Gold — the ultimate haven asset, backed by a multitude of macro drivers that I believe are fueling the onset of another secular cycle. pic.twitter.com/RBPe57F9dU — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 13, 2025 This is your irregular reminder that you don't hold enough gold in your portfolio. pic.twitter.com/GKrFjZsmky — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) March 14, 2025 …
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have never lived through hard times or a recession thus their understanding of “risk” is completely …
(Bloomberg) — The world’s banks are on track to report the lowest revenue from foreign-exchange and rates trading since the pandemic, hit by tighter margins and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Over 250 firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc. (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are forecast to make …
Macro was ugly – really ugly – today: Personal Consumption ugly (Q1 downgraded on 3rd look), continuing jobless claims ugly (highest since Nov 2021), core capital goods new orders and shipments ugly (not a great signals for Q2 GDP), pending home sales ugly (puke to record lows SAAR), and finally, Kansas City Fed manufacturing ugly (21st month in a row without expansion)… This smashed the …
“Courtesy of our friends at Incrementum AG, the following chart gives us an insightful historical perspective. Since the 1900s, we have had four notable commodity cycles. Three of them occurred during inflationary periods: the 1910s, 1940s, and 1970s. The fourth cycle took place in the early 2000s, coinciding with China’s entry into the World Trade …
by BoatSurfer600 As these countries have negative foreign assets, their currencies continue to collapse Source: Sagar Singh