This 10-day squeeze is among the biggest of the last few years. Recession risk highest in five years.

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Tell me again how this is fine.

During inflationary paradigms, midterm election years tend to be a time for the admin in charge to shift focus from keeping their donors bellies full to pretending to care about poor people’s concerns…that usually translates to putting the breaks on equities for a few quarters

https://twitter.com/SoccerMomTrades/status/1996813188864839999

U.S. layoffs totaled 71,321 in November and reached 1.17 million this year.

It’s the most since 2020, and a 44% increase from 2024.

Recent Layoff Announcements:

UPS: 48,000 employees
Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
Intel: 24,000 employees
Microsoft: 15,000 employees

2026 will be the year of mass unemployment.

Wall Street’s major indices closed nearly flat on Thursday, as a surprisingly strong labor-market report raised fresh doubts about the pace of future Fed rate cuts. The dollar and Treasury yields climbed in response to the data.

Small-caps continue to rally, supported by strength in financials such as JPM and GS. The VIX closed below 16, reinforcing the backdrop of a liquidity-driven market that appears to be front-running expectations of a dovish FOMC on December 10th. If SPY pushes toward 690 before the meeting, a classic ‘sell-the-news’ reaction becomes increasingly likely.

With the Fed officially halting QT yesterday, the current setup looks like an aggressive attempt to squeeze whatever liquidity remains. However, our recession-risk score is trending higher and has now closed at its highest level in five years, implying a 55% probability of a recession within the next six months. The last time the model printed a similar reading—August 2019—the market slid roughly 5%. Seasonal strength, combined with the Fed’s dovish tilt, is largely what’s keeping the market afloat for now.