The war began in March. And now EVERYONE knows it will escalate in April. We aren’t fighting a war with WW2 weapons. If Houthis announce the closing of the Bab-El-Maneb Strait, US stocks will need a parachute.

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do you understand what the stock market just did..

oil is at $112.. Trump has a 2-3 week countdown running.. the only diplomat working on a backchannel ceasefire was bombed this morning and his wife is dead.. and the S&P 500 turned green..

here’s the thing nobody’s explaining..

stocks and oil are pricing two completely different realities right now.. the stock market prices what investors BELIEVE will happen.. Wall Street looked at today and decided this gets resolved.. de-escalation.. a deal.. a soft landing.. that’s why it went green..

oil prices what the physical world actually knows..

and this is exactly what happened in September 2008.. the market was bouncing while Lehman Brothers was already collapsing behind closed doors.. investors kept buying the recovery that never came.. it took complete systemic failure before the stock price caught up to what was already true..

the gap between what stocks are pricing and what oil is pricing is the gap between what Wall Street wants to believe and what’s actually happening on the ground..

trader in New York bought the dip today because he believes this ends with a deal.. the only man who was actively building that deal is in hospital in Tehran right now, after his home was bombed this morning and his wife was killed.. one of them knows something the other doesn’t..