The crowd just loaded up at exactly the wrong moment. When everyone rushes in after a panic sell — that is not a buy signal. That is an exit signal.

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Semiconductor ETF flows just hit a record.

March: record OUTFLOWS. Panic selling.
April 15th: record INFLOWS. Biggest in 7 years.

The same investors who sold in panic
are now buying back at higher prices.

This is the most expensive pattern in investing.
Sell the low. Buy the high. Repeat.

And here is the contrarian warning.

Record ETF inflows into a sector that is still in overbought territory on the weekly chart.
A large divergence forming.
A top expected in early May.

The crowd just loaded up at exactly the wrong moment.

When everyone rushes in after a panic sell — that is not a buy signal.
That is an exit signal.

OIL MARKET IS VERY BAD, BUT WE ASSUME IT WILL BE RESOLVED IN 2 WEEKS

Mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months, according to the Pentagon.

The Pentagon told Congress that removing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz may take as long as six months.

This presents a serious problem—a very serious problem.

Most of the world assumes that, at worst, we will recover by late May. However, late May is not within a six-month timeframe. Even if the situation improves by May, we could still face the worst oil shortage in a decade or two. If clearance takes six months, it could become the most severe shortage in a century.

The implication is that we may face restrictions similar to those during COVID-19: no flights, no cars-only bicycles or staying at home. Some companies are already preparing for a shortage of fuel.

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