Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
UK. Pound collapses. Bond yields soar. No one resigns. Britain's Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis.https://t.co/VUYnXhYiNB pic.twitter.com/eVCX6gaoXq — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 9, 2025 Britain’s Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis Soaring yields prompt some comparisons with Truss debacle But the economy’s woes may be more similar to IMF bailout era …
The dollar is close to causing a black swan. 🧐 pic.twitter.com/fyqAXbgCLV — Don Durrett – goldstockdata.com (@DonDurrett) January 5, 2025 ⁉️WILL THE FED STOP SHRINKING ITS BALANCE SHEET SOON⁉️ Bank reserves at the Fed fell by $326 billion, the 2nd biggest drop on record to $2.89TN, the lowest since Nov 2020. This should jump in …
Inflation 2.0 reignited. Breaks 77 and holds yields explode. pic.twitter.com/M5wyYmdqP0 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 5, 2025 The US 30Yr minus the 3-month Spread is on the verge of a big move higher if it can clear 55 bps. pic.twitter.com/6jFk08m6yi — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 6, 2025 Strong U.S. Data Could Propel 10- …
China’s $11 trillion government bond market has moved into uncharted territory. As their government rolls out widespread stimulus, yields are hitting record lows. The gap between yields in Japan and China are now at a record low of just ~70 basis points. China is in trouble. pic.twitter.com/j1vrmW6Hxe — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 28, 2024 …
$7.6 trillion of 🇺🇸 U.S. treasury debt must be rolled over in 2025. People are calling this the "U.S. debt wall."pic.twitter.com/IpJPt5usXj https://t.co/NW8w8gndX9 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 27, 2024 h/t TonyLiberty
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have never lived through hard times or a recession thus their understanding of “risk” is completely …
Global yields to explode in 2025. pic.twitter.com/n1ycL1tXOD — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 23, 2024 The U.S. federal debt is projected to reach over $50 trillion by the middle of the next decade. This includes the need to roll over existing debt, which means refinancing or issuing new debt to pay off maturing obligations. The …
In the week ending December 18th, on Wednesday when the Fed cut rates, panic selling returned. Large-cap funds saw $20.9 billion of outflows, ending a 6-week streak of inflows. Outflows in small-cap, multi-cap and mid-cap funds were $5.4 billion, $3.9 billion and $2.9 billion. pic.twitter.com/q0etlJoGlq — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 21, 2024 Many were …
For reference, Chinese yields are already lower than during the peak of the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic meltdown. Something huge is happening in China – and we should pay attention. 2/ pic.twitter.com/zwWT9y7jsQ — Alf (@MacroAlf) December 20, 2024 The Chinese private sector debt as a % of GDP has exploded north of 200%, …
The December Philly Fed Manufacturing survey was another disaster, collapsing from -5.5 to -16.4, versus an expected rise to +2.8. This is the weakest level of the year. More problematic, prices paid jumped while prices received fell. All signs point to #stagflation. Sorry, Fed. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 19, 2024 The markets still don't …
Steepest drop since September 2008. pic.twitter.com/8lMdk43vdb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 16, 2024 China’s retail sales rose by 3% in November from a year ago, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Monday, missing the forecast of 4.6% in a Reuters poll. That marked a sharp slowdown from 4.8% growth in the previous month. Retail sales in October …
2/7The FT continues: "Beijing has long fought against the “Japanification” of its economy, and has made huge investments in its high-tech, green and electric vehicle sectors with the goal of boosting long-term growth." What isn't said is that this was also Japan's strategy. — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) November 29, 2024 4/7At the time Japan dominated …
Global investment bank UBS published a report Monday highlighting the enduring value of gold as a hedge, despite a recent pivot among speculators toward equities following the U.S. presidential election. While the market appears optimistic, UBS cautions that policy uncertainty under the new administration remains high. Noting that a downtrend in the U.S. dollar and …
Bond yields surge despite Fed cuts, exposing weakening control over markets. The 10 year note yield is just causally up another +13 basis points today. That's +85 basis points since the Fed started CUTTING interest rates. And, no one seems to care. Why has this become normal? pic.twitter.com/zoV9TshYmG — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 12, …
Hate to rain on the bull parade in crypto land and equity futures, but this melt up in bond yields can’t end well… pic.twitter.com/nhPM6vZf8n — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) November 6, 2024 Mortgage rates are set to skyrocket. Few understand this. Its savior is a deleveraging event that no one wants but is ever so necessary. …
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it …
Watch yields across the board carefully. 📈📊 About to explode. 💥🌋 pic.twitter.com/oWAjFEftn4 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 27, 2024 Sweet Jesus, Mother Mary of God. It's happening. pic.twitter.com/XzZEdMJyWR — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 27, 2024 Analysts assess contributors to the unusual 60 basis point rise in 10-year UST yields. With so much on …
The trajectory. pic.twitter.com/7x59bmBk5k — Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) October 23, 2024 Why in the hell are we cutting interest rates? Honestly it’s complete insanity. The bond market hates the idea as you can see by the rising 10 year yield. Inflation is still a major problem and is not under control. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October …
Japan's 40-Year Government Bond Yield rises to highest level since 2008 🚨 pic.twitter.com/sYaX3jeQT2 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 23, 2024 When intervention BOJ? The first big CB to lost control is the Bank of Japan pic.twitter.com/3N7zkMf9HW — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) October 23, 2024 USDJPY climbs above 152 level Here it goes again #MacroEdge …
“Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up almost 40% in the past year, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields or inflation expectations.” Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up almost 40% in the past year, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields …
U.S. Treasury yields jumped Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher more than 9 basis points at 3.946%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was 14 basis points higher at 3.85%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%. Nonfarm payrolls grew …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ & Returns 📉 📈 pic.twitter.com/x4wS2qdlNp — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 19, 2024
10-year Treasury yields being the highest relative to 2-year yields since 2022 indicates a widening gap. This is typically seen as a signal of improving economic conditions or inflationary pressures in the long term, as investors demand higher returns for holding longer-term bonds. Conversely, it can also suggest that the market expects economic challenges ahead, …
2/ Aug 2000 to April 2001: Market dropped by about 25% and yields were falling Creating a "stocks-down-yields-down" environment This is typical during economic recessions pic.twitter.com/0Do52BsCXC — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 16, 2024 4/ Fast forward to 2008: Initial downturn in stocks coincided with declining bond yields Again, the same recessionary behavior led straight to …
BREAKING 🚨: China Chinese Stocks fall to lowest prices since January 2019 pic.twitter.com/It0LO0kZkC — Barchart (@Barchart) September 12, 2024 China 3-Year Yields Close Near Record Lows pic.twitter.com/r7Pu9jg8lr — Sunchartist (@sunchartist) September 12, 2024 2/8The article goes on to note that "in 2018, at the height of VC investment, 51,302 start-ups were founded in China, according …
Money is pouring into Chinese government bonds. The buying has bid up prices and forced yields down to near record lows. The move has upset the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), which has expressed considerable concern over what will happen to China’s financial stability when the rally reverses and people, especially banks, suffer losses. Behind …
UK yields are rising after Prime Minister Starmer warned that his government’s October budget statement will be “painful” and asked the nation to accept “short-term pain for long-term good” in his first major speech in office. https://t.co/T90KgMhLN0 pic.twitter.com/VDRyTM20VN — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 27, 2024
The yield curves on the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury briefly normalized Monday morning, with the spreads turning positive, before re-inverting. Yields briefly rebounded on Monday before inching lower again, after fresh economic data showed the U.S. services sector grew at a faster-than-expected pace in July. The ISM services index recorded a 51.4% reading for …
