A hub for independent voices and hard truths
UK. Pound collapses. Bond yields soar. No one resigns. Britain's Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis.https://t.co/VUYnXhYiNB pic.twitter.com/eVCX6gaoXq — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 9, 2025 Britain’s Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis Soaring yields prompt some comparisons …
The dollar is close to causing a black swan. 🧐 pic.twitter.com/fyqAXbgCLV — Don Durrett – goldstockdata.com (@DonDurrett) January 5, 2025 ⁉️WILL THE FED STOP SHRINKING ITS BALANCE SHEET SOON⁉️ Bank reserves at the Fed fell by $326 billion, the 2nd …
Inflation 2.0 reignited. Breaks 77 and holds yields explode. pic.twitter.com/M5wyYmdqP0 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 5, 2025 The US 30Yr minus the 3-month Spread is on the verge of a big move higher if it can clear 55 bps. …
China’s $11 trillion government bond market has moved into uncharted territory. As their government rolls out widespread stimulus, yields are hitting record lows. The gap between yields in Japan and China are now at a record low of just ~70 …
$7.6 trillion of 🇺🇸 U.S. treasury debt must be rolled over in 2025. People are calling this the "U.S. debt wall."pic.twitter.com/IpJPt5usXj https://t.co/NW8w8gndX9 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 27, 2024 h/t TonyLiberty
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have …
Global yields to explode in 2025. pic.twitter.com/n1ycL1tXOD — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 23, 2024 The U.S. federal debt is projected to reach over $50 trillion by the middle of the next decade. This includes the need to roll over …
In the week ending December 18th, on Wednesday when the Fed cut rates, panic selling returned. Large-cap funds saw $20.9 billion of outflows, ending a 6-week streak of inflows. Outflows in small-cap, multi-cap and mid-cap funds were $5.4 billion, $3.9 …
For reference, Chinese yields are already lower than during the peak of the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic meltdown. Something huge is happening in China – and we should pay attention. 2/ pic.twitter.com/zwWT9y7jsQ — Alf (@MacroAlf) December 20, 2024 …
The December Philly Fed Manufacturing survey was another disaster, collapsing from -5.5 to -16.4, versus an expected rise to +2.8. This is the weakest level of the year. More problematic, prices paid jumped while prices received fell. All signs point …
Steepest drop since September 2008. pic.twitter.com/8lMdk43vdb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 16, 2024 China’s retail sales rose by 3% in November from a year ago, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Monday, missing the forecast of 4.6% in a …
2/7The FT continues: "Beijing has long fought against the “Japanification” of its economy, and has made huge investments in its high-tech, green and electric vehicle sectors with the goal of boosting long-term growth." What isn't said is that this was …
Global investment bank UBS published a report Monday highlighting the enduring value of gold as a hedge, despite a recent pivot among speculators toward equities following the U.S. presidential election. While the market appears optimistic, UBS cautions that policy uncertainty …
Bond yields surge despite Fed cuts, exposing weakening control over markets. The 10 year note yield is just causally up another +13 basis points today. That's +85 basis points since the Fed started CUTTING interest rates. And, no one seems …
Hate to rain on the bull parade in crypto land and equity futures, but this melt up in bond yields can’t end well… pic.twitter.com/nhPM6vZf8n — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) November 6, 2024 Mortgage rates are set to skyrocket. Few understand this. …
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such …
Watch yields across the board carefully. 📈📊 About to explode. 💥🌋 pic.twitter.com/oWAjFEftn4 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 27, 2024 Sweet Jesus, Mother Mary of God. It's happening. pic.twitter.com/XzZEdMJyWR — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 27, 2024 Analysts assess contributors …
The trajectory. pic.twitter.com/7x59bmBk5k — Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) October 23, 2024 Why in the hell are we cutting interest rates? Honestly it’s complete insanity. The bond market hates the idea as you can see by the rising 10 year yield. Inflation …
Japan's 40-Year Government Bond Yield rises to highest level since 2008 🚨 pic.twitter.com/sYaX3jeQT2 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 23, 2024 When intervention BOJ? The first big CB to lost control is the Bank of Japan pic.twitter.com/3N7zkMf9HW — The Macro …
“Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up almost 40% in the past year, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields or inflation expectations.” Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up …
U.S. Treasury yields jumped Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher more than 9 basis points at 3.946%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was 14 basis points higher at 3.85%. …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ …
10-year Treasury yields being the highest relative to 2-year yields since 2022 indicates a widening gap. This is typically seen as a signal of improving economic conditions or inflationary pressures in the long term, as investors demand higher returns for …
2/ Aug 2000 to April 2001: Market dropped by about 25% and yields were falling Creating a "stocks-down-yields-down" environment This is typical during economic recessions pic.twitter.com/0Do52BsCXC — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 16, 2024 4/ Fast forward to 2008: Initial downturn …
BREAKING 🚨: China Chinese Stocks fall to lowest prices since January 2019 pic.twitter.com/It0LO0kZkC — Barchart (@Barchart) September 12, 2024 China 3-Year Yields Close Near Record Lows pic.twitter.com/r7Pu9jg8lr — Sunchartist (@sunchartist) September 12, 2024 2/8The article goes on to note that …
Money is pouring into Chinese government bonds. The buying has bid up prices and forced yields down to near record lows. The move has upset the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), which has expressed considerable concern over what will happen …
UK yields are rising after Prime Minister Starmer warned that his government’s October budget statement will be “painful” and asked the nation to accept “short-term pain for long-term good” in his first major speech in office. https://t.co/T90KgMhLN0 pic.twitter.com/VDRyTM20VN — Lisa …
The yield curves on the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury briefly normalized Monday morning, with the spreads turning positive, before re-inverting. Yields briefly rebounded on Monday before inching lower again, after fresh economic data showed the U.S. services sector grew …
