Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The Treasury has already blown through all the revenue from Tax Day and its cash on hand is down $300 billion from a month ago. Now Treasury will have to issue more debt to pay its bills, unless Yellen purposely runs down this cash account to make the debt look smaller than it… https://t.co/9avTSEZh5p — …
Smart considering how much US #credit there is already, and how much more will need to be created to fund all those wars, politician slush funds, rising interest expenses, roll over of maturing debt, and never mind the great state of the Union, versus physical #gold.#Gold is… — Jaime E. Carrasco (@IJCarrasco) May 16, 2024 …
Stan Druckenmiller on Bidenomics: “If I was a professor, I’d give him an F. Treasury is still spending like we’re in a depression. We have 7% budget deficits at full employment… it’s unheard of.” pic.twitter.com/YTs0EgLkjF — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 12, 2024 Whether it’s a Democrat or Republican in office we overspend. Regardless of whether or …
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is responding to accusations that the US government and more than a dozen financial institutions have teamed up to spy on Americans’ private bank transactions. The House Judiciary Committee recently published a memo accusing the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) of urging banks to surveil their customers’ transactions …
by Striking-Type-4162 The Fed does currency swaps with a country like Japan. Japan gets dollars and the Fed gets yen. Japan takes those dollars we give them through the swap and buys U.S. Treasury bonds. The Fed then reverses the carry trade and gives Japan their yen back… But what happens to those dollars Japan …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1785649506538729654?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Treasury QE, or Treasury Quantitative Easing, refers to a monetary policy tool used by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve in the United States, to stimulate the economy. In Treasury QE, the central bank purchases government securities, typically Treasury bonds or bills, from the market. This influx of cash into the financial system aims …
Series I bonds, an inflation-protected and nearly risk-free asset, will pay 4.28% through October 2024, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced Tuesday. The latest I bond rate is down from the 5.27% yield offered since November. Short-term investors have more competitive options for cash. But the fixed rate could still appeal to long-term investors, …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden could barely eat his dinner at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. And we think he is calling the shots in The White House?? Oh well. Perhaps it is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen or Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum. In any case, Treasury bond issuance in 2024 is expected to hit $1.9 …
by confoundedinterest17 President Obama selected Slow Joe Biden as his Vice President because 1) he was white and 2) an alleged foreign policy wizard in The Senate. Between Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and every other foreign policy disaster under his leadership, I am beginning to doubt Biden’s foreign policy acumen. For example … For the 9th …
Despite expectations of inflation tapering, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge surpasses 8%, highlighting ongoing economic strains. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) records a significant uptick at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023, with Core CPI outperforming forecasts for four consecutive months at 3.8%. Amidst this backdrop, concerns loom over the sustainability of rising power …
via Mike Shedlock Let’s investigate US treasury debt issuance by month and year. Data courtesy of SIFMA, chart by Mish Chart Notes Bills: Treasury bills are short term debt ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks. Bills are sold at a discount or at par (face value). When the bill matures, you are paid its …
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers put out a tweet thread on February 27, 2024 highlighting his participation in a new paper estimating a more accurate Consumer Price Index (CPI) cost of living estimate for the US. What is sure to jolt many is that Summers paper estimates the real cost of living increase peaked in …
The world’s largest, most-important financial market is growing by leaps and bounds. On Wall Street, that is making people nervous. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasurys has exploded, nearly doubling since the pandemic began. The government sold a record $23 trillion worth in 2023. And few think the spree is going to slow soon, given the …
by confoundedinterest17 Constitution Avenue in Washington DC is actually becoming Tobacco Road. No, not the dysfunctional family of Georgia sharecroppers during the Great Depression, but the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC). On Monday, after we got the first part of the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), in which the Treasury unexpectedly announced a big drop in its borrowing …
by confoundedinterest17 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just admitted what the rest of Americans already knew: high prices are here to stay. Example? Food prices (CPI) are up over 20% under Inflation Joe while gasoline prices are up 38% under Clueless Joe. On the housing front, the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is up 33.2% under …
by confoundedinterest17 The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it. Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at …
A trader recently dropped a cool $16.7 million on about 250,000 call contracts tied to the VIX Index, betting on increased stock market volatility. This isn’t your average move – the strike price is 17, expiring on Feb. 14. With the VIX not breaking 17 since November, it’s got everyone buzzing. Seems our trader senses …
Jim Willie is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics, and his career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Jim operates a free website called Golden Jackass.
by confoundedinterest17 It‘s Biden’s Fiscal Inferno! Insane open borders, insane green spending, wars in Ukraine, Gaza and growing restlessness around Taiwan. Inflation. And a demented 81-year old President in charge. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time …
via justthenews “The growth in spending continues to outpace the growth in tax collections. This is why our national debit is heading toward $34 trillion. It cannot go on forever without serious economic consequences,” says the leader of the Tax Foundation. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the …
by confoundedinterest17 We are on a Highway To Hell! Massive Federal Budget deficits and staggering payments to Treasury from The Fed (losses on balance sheet) and $212 TRILLION in unfunded promises to the non-elites. Under Modern Monetary Theory (or print money without consequences), we are seeing trillion dollars budget deficits with no end in sight. Nothing …
US is leading the way on this, unfortunately. If the US refinanced its current debt load ($33.827 trillion) at the yield on 10-year US Treasury bond (4.38%), interest expense would be $1.48 trillion, 50% higher than the top of this skyrocketing chart.https://t.co/MLnYFsU229 — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) November 28, 2023 $2 Trillion is the interest on …
The Fed is losing money, currently $120 billion since 2022. They can't send profits to the US Treasury until they earn those losses back. The last line is hilarious.🤣 "The Fed has stressed that losing money in no way impacts its ability to operate and conduct monetary policy." https://t.co/FlNjxjGBNL — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) November …
US Treasury market debate around hedge fund collateral intensifies “NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) – As U.S. regulators ready rules that would push more trading in Treasuries to a central clearing venue, the industry’s focus is turning on a key question: how much collateral should hedge funds and others put up to trade there. At …
by Tendie_Tube As we know, the prices of existing bonds go up as interest rates fall. Some of us even know that the sensitivity of a bond’s price to changes in interest rates is known as duration. Finally there is convexity – which is the curvature in the rate of change in a bond’s price as interest rates …
In an unprecedented development, the Federal Reserve’s urgent crisis escalates as its decade-long bond-buying spree, valued at $7.7 trillion, reveals a shocking loss, with unrealized losses on the balance sheet surpassing $1.3 trillion for the first time ever. The amortized cost now stands at 20.4% more than the mark-to-market price, presenting an alarming financial discrepancy. …
