Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Put it where you want it. Trump that is! The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y CMT) went negative on April 1, 2024. And remains positive. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y CMT (constant maturity Treasury) peaked locally on March 29, 2024 and then fell, eventually turning negative on April 1, 2024. And remained negative until August …
Treasury yields surged Wednesday as Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a Republican sweep in Congress possibly also in the cards. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points to trade at 4.461%, hitting its highest level since July as investors bet a Trump presidency would increase economic …
They believe that the prices of these bonds will drop, which typically happens when interest rates rise. By shorting these bonds, they’re hoping to profit if their predictions about the market come true. Largest 2-Year Treasury Short Position in History 🚨 Hedge Funds have now built the largest 2-Year Treasury short position in history pic.twitter.com/mhzOmhCWWf …
#recession … #Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition https://t.co/33Ts5hbVHb pic.twitter.com/pc9KFHqddF — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 31, 2024 It's end of month and we should be seeing more cash piling up on the sidelines (sometimes referred to as window dressing) but instead RRPs have plunged this week, down $50 billion to just $201 – why is no …
As Secretary Janet Yellen is asked about her concerns over the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency… The Treasury Department sign falls off. The universe always finds a way to make us laugh. pic.twitter.com/9XLeFNv4Na — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 27, 2024 Reporter: How concerned are you about the long term status of …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is crumbing down under Biden/Harris. No, the economy doesn’t hurt so good. The Citi Economic Surprise Index just rose to its highest level since April. The 10Y Treasury yield just rose to its highest level since August.
Druckenmiller recently announced at a conference that he is shorting U.S. Treasury bonds, and these bets now account for 15% to 20% of his portfolio. https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/20/does-stanley-druckenmiller-know-something-wall-str/ ✅Market optimism on inflation is ‘misleading’ byu/Fun_Balance_1809 inu_Fun_Balance_1809 Inflation is not dead, it’s just resting LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Over the past three years inflation has gone …
“At 2pm EST on the 8th business day of every month the Federal Government is supposed to release their “Monthly Treasury Statement.” This report details how much money the government is taking in via taxes and how much is going out via spending…” “Which begs the questions: what are they trying to hide?” You have …
U.S. Treasury yields jumped Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher more than 9 basis points at 3.946%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was 14 basis points higher at 3.85%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%. Nonfarm payrolls grew …
via theinstitutionalriskanalyst: October 1, 2024 | As we completed the revisions to “Inflated: Money, Debt & the American Dream” last week, we had an opportunity to speak with a number of close observers of the dollar and the Treasury market about what has changed in the political-economy over the past 15 years. Answer, a lot. We …
This is an excellent video on the massive fiat debasement that is waiting for us around the corner. — Marius Kjærstad (marius.eth) 🐬🦇🔊 (@MKjrstad) September 19, 2024
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ & Returns 📉 📈 pic.twitter.com/x4wS2qdlNp — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 19, 2024
30-Year Treasury Yield fell below 4% for the first time this year 🚨 pic.twitter.com/giQ4QczZtV — Barchart (@Barchart) September 11, 2024 Risk appetite has deteriorated sharply in September to its lowest for nearly two-and-a-half years pic.twitter.com/mdIHyhEb5t — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 11, 2024 BREAKING 🚨: Crude Oil Hedge Funds are now the least bullish on …
2/ US government bonds have broken below a 40-year uptrend After experiencing one of the most aggressive bear market since the 1980s pic.twitter.com/FTPZvQuipe — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 28, 2024 4/ Since March 2020, gold has outperformed Treasury bonds by +100% coinciding with rising government spending Government expenditures have gone from $3.4 trillion to nearly …
The Treasury Department is being accused of trying to juice the economy, per Axios. "Short-term debt is becoming a rising share of all outstanding debt, while the share of long-term debt, like 10-year or 30-year bonds, stays flat." — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 13, 2024 We spent 33% more on servicing the federal debt than on …
The yield curves on the 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury briefly normalized Monday morning, with the spreads turning positive, before re-inverting. Yields briefly rebounded on Monday before inching lower again, after fresh economic data showed the U.S. services sector grew at a faster-than-expected pace in July. The ISM services index recorded a 51.4% reading for …
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is about to surpass the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, reversing the previous condition where the 2-year yield was higher than the 10-year yield. Implications: Economic Sentiment Shift: An inverted yield curve (where short-term yields are higher than long-term yields) often signals a lack of confidence in …
by confoundedinterest17 Here is Biden/Harrisnomics in one chart! Treasury (interest) payments are growing faster than other government outlays and a larger than the entire Defense outlays. Leading outlays include Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security. Here is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen symbolically gorging on a foot-long sub. No one spends like unelected government bureaucrats!
By Martin Armstrong Clinton’s Gimmick Shifting to Short-term Funding to Reduce Interest Expenditures. I wrote as a guest columnist for the Wall Street Journal back on April 19, 1995, dealing with an issue that seemed to go over everyone’s head. At the time, President Clinton (1993-2001) was able to balance the budget, and nobody seemed …
Harris-Biden Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen says their "transition to a lower carbon global economy" will "require no less than $3 trillion" each year pic.twitter.com/Ho5AoT3e9e — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 28, 2024 This idiot wants $78 Trillion to fight the weather. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said during a speech in Belem, Brazil, on Saturday that …
Trump was joking in an interview. The media can't understand any nuance/joking in a Trump interview. — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) July 23, 2024
WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) – Donald Trump will not try ousting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the central banker’s term ends and would consider JPMorgan (JPM.N), opens new tab CEO Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary if he won the Nov. 5 election, the former president told Bloomberg in an interview published on Tuesday. JPMorgan …
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1813191213136150805
by confoundedinterest17 Goodbye cruel world! Thursday, when the CPI report was released with a month-to-month reading of -0.056% (rounded to -0.1%), the six-month Treasury yield dropped by 8 basis points, and on Friday by another 2 basis points, to 5.23%. That combined 10-basis-point drop was a significant and visible 2-day move. It brought the 6-month yield just a …
5-year correlation of USD/JPY v. 10y UST yield suggests 10y yield could head back toward 5%. Problem is US can't afford Interest, Entitlements, & Cold War 2.0 at a 5% 10y w/o more USD liquidity. Translation: Weak JPY is as much the Fed's & Treasury's problem as it is the BOJ's. pic.twitter.com/1LKDLWP1WV — Luke Gromen …
Synchronised . Does the tail wag the dog ?or dog the tail ? What say you ? pic.twitter.com/bIjuq7Jn1Q — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 1, 2024 10-Yr ~4.5% At what level do yields begin to impact stock performance? Since 2022, it has not been a specific level. Rather, when yields move to the 80th %tile …
Yellen should be focusing on the economy and other treasury related stuff. If we keep bankrolling countries around the world – our debt will grow unbounded. — Erick (@Erickschultz11) June 21, 2024
It appears there’s growing concern over the management of federal debt and deficit amidst the backdrop of recent financial maneuvers. Janet Yellen’s decision to draw down $5.7 billion from the Treasury cash account raises eyebrows, seen by some as an attempt to obscure the true scale of the deficit ahead of upcoming elections. This move, …
https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/179485642045175428 Starting on Wednesday, and for the first time since the early 2000s, the Treasury Department will launch a series of buybacks targeting seasoned and harder-to-trade debt. Then in June, the US central bank is set to begin tapering the pace of its balance-sheet unwind, known as quantitative tightening, or QT. The Fed’s first-line inflation …
WASHINGTON (AP) — A senior U.S. Treasury official is in Kyiv this week to talk with government officials about U.S. financial support for Ukraine, efforts to tighten sanctions on Russia and plans to use immobilized Russian sovereign assets for the benefit of Ukraine as it fends off Russian forces. Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo’s trip comes …