A hub for independent voices and hard truths
Overseas private investors and central banks now own about 30% of all outstanding U.S. government debt, down from roughly 43% a decade ago Chart of foreign flows of US Treasuries over time: https://i.imgur.com/sPYl8E5.png Foreigners no longer have an insatiable appetite for …
Former US Asst Sec of the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts: “Ukraine was a wave that created problems for Russia. It is fading, Ukraine is devastated. They no longer have any army” pic.twitter.com/KVShMISsmS — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 17, 2023
via naturalnews: The U.S. Treasury market has been awfully shaky for quite a while but it had its worst day in six months on Thursday, November 9, as measured by the performance of the Bloomberg Treasury Index. A disastrous auction of 30-year Treasury bonds …
via thetimes.co.uk: The government is to hand over £170 billion to the Bank of England to cover losses on its bond-buying scheme over the next decade, new analysis by the central bank suggests. Losses on the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) …
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers believes that the current federal budget deficit poses a greater challenge for the economy than it has before in U.S. history. Summers said Tuesday during an event staged by the Center for American Progress, a …
We need a VIX for the treasury market! — BankerG (@BankerG2) October 25, 2023 Remember when Bernanke said the Federal Reserve putting "assets" on its balance sheet wasn't monetizing debt because it was temporary? That was 15 years ago. pic.twitter.com/YLE9vV6JJm …
It seems likes short term bond are being oversold, maybe in favor for longer ones since a recession might trigger Fed rates to drop, causing a consistent increase in value for longer durations. Of course this might not happen or …
by confoundedinterest17 Fire! Yes, Biden and Congress created a fire with it reckless Federal spending leading in 40-year highs inflation, prompting The Fed to counterattack with rapid rate hikes. We now see the 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%. And the REAL …
Fun fact: bank credit is now contracting! Since dollar standard (‘71), that’s only happened once before: 2008. Losses in T bonds will far worse than mortgage losses. Stocks are on the verge of a massive collapse. Fractional banking does’t work …
If these problems in major economies collide, it could spell global financial disaster soon, and it feels like we need some urgent solutions, but we’re not getting them. On top of that, the recent Treasury bond auction didn’t go so …
by confoundedinterest17 Like President Biden enjoying a barbeque at The White House with a live band (probably NOT Justin Moore singing “Small Town USA”) while Hamas declared war on Israel and Americans are being held hostage with the promise of public …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! US Treasury yields are a runaway train. The 30-year Treasury yield is soaring and rose above 5% … again. First time since 2007, just before the financial crisis and The Great Recession. The 30Y-5Y yield curve is steepening. …
The public focuses on the stock market but this bond market is much more important to the economy. There are major consequences for all the banks who hold Treasury Bonds. The level of unrealized losses has probably gone through the …
Student loan payments start again this month, and mortgage rates just hit 8%. My company is usually a little high, even Rocket Mortgage is showing 7.846% with 2.25 points. Not fear mongering, but its gonna be a “winter of death”. …
by StatisticalMan Long bonds are not based solely on the current fed funds rate. They are based on projected short term rates over the duration of the long bond. They have a yield at a premium to short term rates due to …
This is not sustainable. The US added – checks notes – $275 billion in debt in, uh, ONE DAY Total US debt is now $33.442 trillion, hit $33 trillion just 2 weeks ago, and on pace to rise by $1 …
Everyone’s waiting to discover the level at which yields spur financial instability. From @kitjuckes this morning: “For now, the FX market is a bystander, watching Treasuries and waiting for them to break something.” — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 3, 2023 …
by confoundedinterest17 Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate is up to 7.31%, the highest level since December 2000. That means that mortgage rates are up 69% under Biden. That is in spite of $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS being held on The …
“LIKE THE DOT-COM BUBBLE”: Monster stock market rally & short squeeze likely before year end
While China has been offloading US Treasuries for 10+ years, the rate has accelerated. Both Canada and Mexico also now account for a higher % of US imports than China. It seems like the trade war is back. Follow us …
via Mike Shedlock: Hedge funds and asset managers are in opposite camps, with leverage, posing risk of an accident. Hedge Fund Basis Trade ‘Probably’ Back and Posing Risk Bloomberg reports Hedge Fund Basis Trade ‘Probably’ Back and Posing Risk, Fed Says …
That’s why alot of folks are betting on extended duration treasuries. This system doesn’t work if rates trends away from zero h/t InternationalTop2405
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2023-17565.pdf How to comment: www.regulations.gov (use IRS and REG-122793-19 to identify your submission) 60 days is October 28th, 2023 60 days is October 28th, 2023 Press Release: The U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury Department) and the Internal …
by SM1334 I think its fair to say the treasury ain’t getting its money… Sauce : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW
by 2ndSifter For context, the date of the hypothetical FTD short was on or around 07/24/2023 which may correspond with the beginning of the recent decline. If this short was truly a naked FTD short, that position must hypothetically cover …
Treasury Yields Reach Highest Since 2007 Amid Elevated Rate Fears: Rising Real Yields Reflect Firmer Economy and Higher Deficits; 10-Year Yield Surpasses 4.34%, Marking Highest Level Since Financial Crisis The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a …
by Ok_Significance_4008 I asked Bard and that’s what it said: A rising 10-year Treasury yield can have a number of implications for stocks. First, it can make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, which can weigh on their …
by confoundedinterest17 This is very strange. Global Treasury Yields just rose to a 15-year high (2008). This is primarily due to Central Bank moneta And REAL 10-year Treasury yields also the highest since 2009. At the same time, US industrial …
by Chris Black The Treasury’s new buyback program will have a humble beginning, but tremendous potential to become an essential tool with far reaching impact. Treasury first hinted at a buyback progra… Continue reading by subscribing. Username Password Remember Me …
