treasury

Treasury: Dealer of Second to Last Resort

by Chris Black The Treasury’s new buyback program will have a humble beginning, but tremendous potential to become an essential tool with far reaching impact. Treasury first hinted at a buyback program (https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/) last August amidst concerns over poor Treasury market liquidity and finally decided to launch it next year. The most recent details (https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TreasurySupplementalQRQ32023.pdf) …

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10-year Treasury yield rises due to stronger economic data, causing significant headwind for equities. De-risking signals across leading industries and sectors.

The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising aggressively on the back of stronger-than-expected economic data This is a major headwind for equities pic.twitter.com/C0Xc2ZAf8x — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 14, 2023 https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1691087531813515264 #Bonds are starting to look bad… US Treasury term premia (black) are breaking higher and pushing 10y yields up (orange). This isn't good for …

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Recent intra-day reversals are due to institutional dumping of tech stocks, selling to retails. The weak 30 year treasury auction + Fed’s BTFP emergency lending window at a new all time high = We are in the final countdown.

These massive intra-day reversals we've been seeing lately are a result of institutions dumping Tech stocks en masse. A process known as "distribution" i.e. selling to retail late money. Here we see (Chaikin) money flow has collapsed. Note the difference from the last top: pic.twitter.com/IrPaM0TglA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 This chart sums it …

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“Pain Trade” Points To A Steeper US Yield Curve As Fed Remittances To US Treasury Soar (The Cost Of Bidenomics’s BIG Policies)

by confoundedinterest17 Yes, Bidenomics is an FDR-type massive expansion of government into the private sectors requiring massive Federal spending … and inflation. Except that it beenfits anything BIG and powerful to the detriment of the small and weak. (Bloomberg) Friday’s jobs data sparked a relief rally in bonds and a flatter yield curve, but the pain …

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Peter Schiff: 30-year Treasury yield rises, inflation expectations unanchored; Fed must act.

https://t.co/L7Cj8NMaIm — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 3, 2023 Good Morning Everyone! Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is making a bold move! He's shorting 30-year Treasury bills using options, and he predicts yields could skyrocket to 5.5% 'soon'. His strategy is a hedge against the impact of long-term rates on stocks in “a world… …

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Treasury Alert! $1.859 trillion is what Treasury expects to borrow the rest of the year. For the 3rd quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt. For the 4th quarter Treasury expects to borrow $852 billion in privately-held net marketable debt.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1662 The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1]for the July – September 2023 and October – December 2023 quarters. During the July – September 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion.[2]  …

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The US national debt has increased by $1.8 trillion since the “debt ceiling crisis”. They did it in less than 2 months. At this rate, in 3 months, the debt will be 4 trillion. US Treasury is issuing $102B of long-duration bonds in the upcoming weeks.

by RedditIsOwendByTheWS The government now lives from month to month. soon it will be from week to week. Then from day to day. and finally from hour to hour. Source : Traders Brace for $102 Billion Wave of Treasury Bond Sales – Bloomberg

Six banks submitted 170 suspicious activity reports to Treasury Department, alleging Biden family involvement in money laundering, human trafficking, and tax fraud.

“BREAKING Rep. James Comer says six banks, including JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo, submitted over 170 suspicious activity reports to the Treasury Department regarding the Biden family, alleging their involvement in money laundering, human trafficking, and tax fraud. The American banks also raised concerns about wire transfers received by the Bidens from foreign …

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Bidenomics? Since January 2021, Regular Gasoline Prices Up 57% Under Biden, CRB Foodstuffs Up 55% As Strategic Petroleum Reserves DOWN -46% (10Y-2Y Treasury Curve Inverts To -102.45)

by confoundedinterest17 Jared Bernstein was VP Joe Biden’s former Chief Economist and is now chair of the United States Council of Economic Advisers. Pretty impressive! Except that Bernstein is not really an economist. He has a PhD in social welfare from Columbia University. In other words, Bernstein is a Progressive Marxist cheerleader, not a real …

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Bidenomics, Born Under A Bad Sign! US Treasury Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) Inverts To Under -100 BPS Again (Nickel UP 1.78%, Dogecoin UP 5.58%)

by confoundedinterest17 I have never seen anything like this. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is deep in inversion and has had a negative slope for 265 straight days. Bidenomics is born under a bad sign! On the commodities front, heating oil is up almost 2% this morning and nickel (an important element in Biden’s green …

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Best-case Treasury Refill

by Chris Black Use of the Fed’s liquidity-neutral  reverse repo facility has hit above $2trn+ for most of H1 this year and, with the facility offering over 5% risk-free, options to drain it have been limited. On June 1, one day after the debt ceiling was resolved  and the Treasury was given the all-clear to …

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USD closes lowest weekly candle since April 2022, Fed’s influence less significant.US 3-month Treasury 18-month Foward suggests soft landing unlikely.

USD has just closed its lowest weekly candle since April 2022 With the break of key support and a bearish MACD cross, downward momentum looks dominant pic.twitter.com/Y7OhawkHjX — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 18, 2023 2-year Treasury yield and USD have significantly diverged Signaling that the Fed has mattered less to the Dollar in 2023 pic.twitter.com/CFsDKmAvYv …

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US Treasury 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Stumbles To -91.166 BPS As 30Y Mortgage Rates Climb To 7.37% (30Y Mortgage Rate UP 156% Under Bidenomics) Since November 3, 2022, US Dollar Index DOWN -9.68%, Gold UP 18.55%, Bitcoin UP 51.11%!

by confoundedinterest17 I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y …

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Printin’ The Night Away! US Treasury Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) Still Inverted, But Less So At -86.616 Basis Points (Return Of Liquidity)

by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve is printin’ the night away! Yes, as The Fed printin’ the night away, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) is still inverted, but at -86.616 basis points. The 2 year US Treasury yield is down -8.2 BPS, the largest decline in the world … after Greece! Greece? The fiscal wreck …

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Fed’s cumulative losses exceed Treasury remittances, totaling -76.292 billion

by Dismal-Jellyfish Liabilities and Capital Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury -76.292 billion as of 7/5/2023. Let’s talk about the Fed’s cumulative losses, in fewer than 9 months, are GREATER (-76.292 billion, so far vs $76 billion) than what was remitted to the U.S. Treasury for ALL of 2022… https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW Remember, the Fed …

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Treasury yield hits 16-year high due to ADP job data. Over 75% of homes unaffordable for middle-income buyers.

2-year Treasury yield hits 16-year high after ADP jobs data shatters expectations The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a level not seen in 16 years on Thursday as investors absorbed strong jobs data that could mean further tightening from the Federal Reserve. The 2-year Treasury was last up by more than 11 basis points at …

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This research paper from Kansas City Fed is causing the huge sell-off in Treasury bonds.

by DesmondMilesDant Caption: Fed paper https://www.kansascityfed.org/researc… – Caption: Link to article : http://archive.today/HRKGd   The Fed’s decision to keep rates low for longer than markets are currently pricing in could have major implications for stocks. If inflation does not begin to pick up until 2026, as the new paper suggests, it could mean that the …

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Treasury yield curve flashes warning signal not seen in 42 years.

(Reuters) – A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion on Monday since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, reflecting financial markets’ concerns that an extended Federal Reserve rate hiking cycle will tip the United States into recession. The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year …

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Biden Meal! Treasury Bill Barrage Is Just a Prelude to Longer-Term Debt Deluge (Ticking Time Bomb Of Debt With Interest Payments Skyrocketing!)

by confoundedinterest17 Jay Leno once quipped about the Obama meal. “Order anything you want and hand the bill to the person standing behind you.” Biden, like his boss Obama, is praciticing a similar strategy. Spend like a drunken sailor and just keep borrowing until the whole thing breaks. The barrage of fresh Treasury bills poised …

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Fed’s cumulative losses equal -71.875 billion remitted to Treasury in 9 months.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Earnings Remittances Due to the U.S. Treasury -71.875 billion as of 6/21/2023. Let’s talk about the Fed’s cumulative losses in 9 months that equal almost as much (-71.875 billion vs $76 billion) that they remitted to the U.S. Treasury for ALL of 2022… ​ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW Remember, the Fed is …

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Michael Hudson Master Class on Dollar Hegemony: “US Treasury doesn’t have to borrow from US investors – it doesn’t have to create money itself…”

“The larger the US balance of payments deficit is, the more it spends militarily and politically around the world, the more foreign central banks end up financing the domestic budget deficit so that the US Treasury doesn’t have to borrow from US investors – it doesn’t have to create money itself… Well, that means that …

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Treasury Curve Points to Renewed Worries on Fed-Driven Recession (Yield Curve Approaching Recent Inversion Peak Reached In March)

by confoundedinterest17 61% of Bloomberg terminal respondents (including me, by the way) see Fed hikes leading to recession. Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession. Policy-sensitive front-end Treasuries led a selloff Thursday, while longer-date bonds lagged, a day after Fed officials indicated that they’re prepared to …

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Unsustainable debt: Interest on the debt was $61 billion in May, more than the combined spending on veterans benefits, education, and transportation

Interest costs are a quarter of the deficit, leading to unsustainable debt. Latest US Treasury data show we're on unsustainable path: interest on the debt was a whopping $61 billion in May, more than was spent on veterans benefits and services, education, and transportation COMBINED; interest costs were a quarter of the deficit last month: …

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says to expect a gradual decline in the dollar’s share of global reserves, but greenback remains dominant (“Gradual decline” is a whopper right up there with “inflation is transitory”)

via businessinsider: The US should expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to slowly decline, but no alternatives exist that could completely displace the greenback, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday. Her comments came during a Housing Financial Services Committee in response questions about the risk of de-dollarization. Asked by Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, …

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‘Treasury issuance is heating up next week, with a whopping $296B of US debt on auction!’

Wild liquidity week indeed. This chart might change significantlyhttps://t.co/5EOEAFVbLM — Daniel Baeza (@dbaeza13) June 9, 2023 Next week should be fun! We have CPI, Fednesday, retail sales, UoM consumer sentiment, quarterly OpEx, and Treasury issuance starts to really pick up. Are you ready for what could be a wild ride? pic.twitter.com/4khfgcH81L — Markets & Mayhem …

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