Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The latest tariff changes on small purchases, hit shipping like an iceberg, yet the Titanic Treasury market will be at risk if the Supreme Court Reverses Trump’s tariffs. by David Haggith A lot more news streamed in since my Deeper Dive on the labor market, affirming the major recessionary downturn I reported in my analysis. …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday called for a review of the Federal Reserve, arguing that it has strayed from its original core missions by taking on banking regulation. The Federal Reserve was created as the United States’ central banking system in 1913, after a series of financial panics prompted government intervention. It consists of …
When investors flee currency for a tangible asset, it signals fear of fiscal collapse and unchecked debt. It's really unusual for 30-year Treasury yield to rise in a Fed easing cycle. It's even more unusual for 30-year yield to rise with all the world's major central banks in an easing cycle. This tells you monetary …
Trump’s legacy will be defined by America’s downfall, and everything he is doing right now makes that almost certain. Ray Dalio says it happens within 3 years max 💀 👀 👀 pic.twitter.com/A3zcUHg3lY — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 2, 2025 Link:https://t.co/mtTG5lOBrc — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 3, 2025 Ray Dalio warned the U.S. faces a “debt-induced …
The collapse is not coming. It has already begun. What we call markets are stage props. What we call policy is theater. And the audience has already been robbed while the show goes on. A few months back, the mask slipped. The tremor was small, but the meaning was enormous. Trump-linked assets spiked in suspicious …
A staggering $6.4 trillion in U.S. debt comes due by the end of 2025. As foreign central banks flee treasuries and inflation surges, the Fed’s last resort could quietly destroy your purchasing power. Who will bail out America this time?
If Bitcoin needs lies to rise, what does that make it worth? BREAKING: Michael Saylor violates promise to shareholders, dilutes MicroStrategy $MSTR with 875,301 new shares https://t.co/aOmYIOWpdn pic.twitter.com/jXqtw9ZDeR — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 25, 2025 As #Bitcoin demand dries up fast and the price tanks, watch the maximalists scramble to invent new fake narratives and rumors …
He gets in to DJTs role at the 23:00 timestamp
Interest payments on the national debt hit $1.049 trillion in the first 10 months of FY2025, up 30% from the same period last year. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/interest-payments-on-the-national-debt-top-1-trillion-as-deficit-swells.html The Treasury confirms the government is on track to spend $1.2 trillion on interest payments for the full fiscal year ending October 2025. https://www.investopedia.com/why-interest-payments-are-blowing-up-the-federal-budget-8712197 The U.S. Treasury’s own fiscal dashboard …
Strategic bitcoin reserve turns out to be more like a digital paperweight. TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT SAYS THE U.S. WILL **NOT** BE BUYING ANY BITCOIN THEY WILL HOLD THE $15-$20 BILLION IN BITCOIN THEY ALREADY HAVE AND CONFISCATE MORE WEIRD, BECAUSE I WAS PROMISED A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE MAKES SENSE WHY BO HINES RESIGNED NOW, …
The U.S. Treasury just issued General License No. 125 temporarily lifting narrow sanctions on Russia to allow financial transactions necessary for Putin’s visit to Alaska for his summit with Trump. The Office of Foreign Assets Control authorization permits “transactions prohibited by the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations” that are “ordinarily incident and necessary to …
This is, without exaggerating, one of the most extraordinary things a US Treasury Secretary ever said. It should be mandatory viewing for all citizens of US “allies”, Europeans first and foremost. What Bessent is saying is that the US will now treat US allies’ wealth as an American “sovereign wealth fund” (his words), “directing” them, …
Treasury volatility just hit rock bottom, the lowest since January 2022. The MOVE Index cratered. Fear? Gone. Hedging? Forget it. Market signals? Silent. Only a quiet calm that should scare you. “Volatility in the Treasuries market has dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling to its lowest level since January 2022.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasuries-volatility-gauge-falls-092845181.html Rates …
The U.S. Treasury just tried to borrow $42 billion in a 10-year auction. The auction tailed. Demand was soft. Foreign banks didn’t show. The bonds cleared at 4.255%, nearly 0.01% above trader expectations. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-06-2025/card/treasury-yields-extend-rise-after-lackluster-10-year-note-auction-HTBkouvfXmDCyCkNft6O 🚨The U.S. just tried to borrow $42B in a 10-year auction. The auction tailed, demand tanked, and even foreign banks stepped …
The Treasury quietly redesigned its bond strategy in plain sight. Scott Bessent said the Treasury has “a big toolkit” to stabilize markets if the Fed refuses to act.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-14/bessent-says-treasury-has-big-toolkit-if-needed-for-bond-market He also warned that yields have become too high: “It wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer‑term securities given where yields are …
The whole global financial system leans on a promise backed by math that doesn’t add up. Pretending these bonds are safe while ignoring the ballooning off-balance-sheet debts is the biggest confidence trick ever sold. Eventually, reality crashes the party. $1.4B Fartcoin is what you get when the "risk free" asset underpinning the entire banking & …
The US federal debt just hit 36.66 trillion dollars. That’s an all-time high. But the real story is velocity. In just two weeks, public debt jumped 441 billion dollars. That’s not seasonal. That’s a panic refill. The Treasury General Account, the government’s checking account, was nearly drained during the debt ceiling standoff. Now it’s being …
Wall Street is gearing up for a massive surge in Treasury bill issuance in the third quarter, that is more than half a trillion dollars. That means the government is borrowing heavily to cover spending, which puts pressure on interest rates and could crowd out private investment. “Net issuance of Treasury bills in the third …
The Treasury just lit a fuse under the Fed. On July 21, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on CNBC and did not hold back. He called for a sweeping review of the entire Federal Reserve system. Not just interest rates. Not just monetary policy. The entire institution. His words were blunt. “All these PhDs over …
What’s going on here is likely a sign of rising global stress. The sharp drop in the 10 year Treasury yield alongside a spike in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) points to a flight to safety and a scramble for dollar liquidity. Normally, falling yields would weaken the dollar but when both move in opposite …
Each American family could face $425k in federal debt load. In 10 years, the US government will be $55-60 trillion in debt (which will be 7-7.5 times government revenue) because there will be $25-30 trillion of additional borrowing. That amounts to about $425,000 of debt per American family. When I calculate the supply and demand …
Markets flash crisis signs… Current situation: 1. Bitcoin is up +60% in 3 months like the USD is broken 2. The USD is falling in its worst start to a year since 1973 3. Gold prices are rising toward $3,400/oz like inflation is back 4. Treasury yields are rising like deficit spending is worsening 5.… …
The fiscal alarm bells aren’t hypothetical anymore. Financial markets are now operating under a base case scenario that expects the United States to add another $10 trillion in debt by 2028. That would put total federal debt at $46 trillion, up 100% from 2020. On July 9, the debt increased $366 billion in a single …
Investors channel 2021’s reckless mania again… WSJ article over the weekend saying that profitless junk stocks have been fueling this entire rally since April:https://t.co/SdspyMwcve"Shares of unprofitable companies have outperformed since early April, and investors are now speculating like it’s 2021" One of the stocks… pic.twitter.com/KXAtpep8IN — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 7, 2025 Carvana has pulled off …
Treasury Secretary Bessent says he's ready to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell if President Trump wants him to. pic.twitter.com/jHxpZ34RuB — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 5, 2025
Gold is no longer tethered to the dollar index. It’s been moving sideways from currency markets for months. The break became visible in April when the dollar index fell 6.4% off its March high, but gold kept climbing. It hit $3,288 per ounce on July 1. That is not noise. That is decoupling. The technicals …
