Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
On any given morning, the fate of the global economy floats through a narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman. The Strait of Hormuz may look unremarkable on a map, but it carries the economic lifeblood of nations nearly 20 million barrels of oil daily, representing one-fifth of global production. This waterway is more …
BREAKING: China’s total export volumes of rare-earth magnets fell -74% year-over-year in May, the biggest monthly decline on record. This comes after a -45% drop seen in April. Total rare-earth magnet exports reached 1.2 million kilograms last month, the least since February… pic.twitter.com/AuqJRTrVkB — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 23, 2025 🚨US economic activity is …
"We are going to discover just like we did from the 2005-2008 time period, that this perception that there is an incredible shortage of housing is simply wrong." pic.twitter.com/BGlNAraweK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 19, 2025 we know what's going on pic.twitter.com/3qd615gfqm — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 20, 2025 There are roughly 14.9 million vacant …
"The principle is so simple that a child can understand." Rep. Thomas Massie breaks down the true cause of inflation. "When you print five trillion dollars and you put it into the economy, you have diluted the value of the money." "We can say, well, eggs went up because feed… pic.twitter.com/ykE6syNSrk — Wide Awake Media …
by Michael Those that are cheering attacks deep inside the borders of our enemies should realize that the other side can play that game too. We are a nation that is absolutely teeming with soft targets, and I have no doubt that our enemies brought in all sorts of unconventional weapons during the decades when …
Global gold production is essentially flat from seven years ago. Then add: ▪️Mining capex remains historically depressed. ▪️Very few significant gold discoveries in recent years. ▪️Almost no major projects expected to come online over the next 5-7 years. Keep in mind that central banks still hold less than 20% of their balance sheets in gold …
The April 2025 breakout in US M2 supply is a macro inflection point.After a multi-year plateau and contraction, renewed expansion suggests:•Reflation bias returning•Market liquidity tailwinds•Potential policy pivot beneath the surfaceTactical exposure to real assets and… — Bladimir Ruiz (@BladimirWealth) May 27, 2025
Japan just blinked. Late last night, Japan’s Ministry of Finance said they are considering cutting back on how many super long bonds they sell. On the surface, this may sound like a dry technical tweak, but make no mistake, it sent waves through global bond markets. Here is why this matters. Fewer bonds issued means …
The biggest money supply in the world!#China pic.twitter.com/Ey5rr8DYPV — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) May 24, 2025
One of the oddest things in the House budget bill was cutting the private market incentives in energy markets. 81% of incremental power generation will be crippled by that single stroke of the pen. How do we compete in AI and compete against China? They have an abundance of… pic.twitter.com/QOALsBwLum — Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) May …
by EconomySoltani The global broad money supply-to-GDP ratio fell to 118% in 2024, down from a peak of 139% in 2020, returning to pre-pandemic levels. This normalization reflects tighter monetary conditions, which may help ease inflationary pressures but could also dampen economic growth if credit availability declines.
Canada, the Euro Area, and Mexico account for over 15% each of 2024 imports, while China’s at 7.5%, leaving the U.S. heavily reliant on a handful of partners. If a trade war sparks, these concentrated trade ties could snap, disrupting everything from goods to prices, and the U.S. might be caught flat-footed with few alternatives …
by Martin Armstrong Businesses cannot properly determine how much or when to buy due to ever-changing tariffs. Tariffs will certainly not halt trade, but they have caused a kink in the supply chain. The Port of Seattle reported a temporarily lack of any container ships last week. “I can see it right over my shoulder …
Powell asked about the tools the Fed has to address supply-chain disruptions. “We don’t have that at all,” he says. That's odd: in 2021 the Fed vowed rates would be at 0 until 2024 because of covid supply chain disruptions. — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 7, 2025 On the contrary. In 2015 and 2022, SPX found …
Global money supply is exploding higher, led by the #PBOC. Next stop for #Bitcoin is 120k. Mark my words boys mark them well. pic.twitter.com/pPlk2eaapR — James Choi (@JC_Investment) May 7, 2025 Boom. Breaking news: China to cut a series of rates: Reserve ratio requirement by 0.5ppt7-day reverse repo to 1.4% (from 1.5%)Structural tools rate by …
by Michael Are you ready for store shelves to start emptying all over America? When I first started writing about the coming shortages last month, I received quite a bit of criticism. But now expert after expert is warning that we really are facing a crisis of historic proportions. Most major retailers still have several weeks …
Millions of Americans depend on daily medication to function, to work, to stay alive. Blood pressure pills. Antidepressants. Insulin. Thyroid tablets. Inhalers. Medications for epilepsy, anxiety, heart conditions, diabetes. Take a guess how many people in the U.S. are prescribed drugs long-term. Over 131 million. That’s more than half the population. And in a crisis, …
The Civil War wasn’t won with rifles. It was won with railroads, factories, iron foundries, and textile mills. The Union didn’t just outfight the Confederacy. It outproduced it. By the time the South realized the war wouldn’t be over in six months, it was already too late. The North had the iron, the arms, the …
Port update This is crazy. pic.twitter.com/BRyEEES67z — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 30, 2025 CHINA EXPORTS PLUNGE IMPENDING SHORTAGES WEST COAST PORTS BRACE
You cannot fix a supply shock with either fiscal or monetary stimulus. Real consumption is set by the quantity of goods and services available, and tariffs pull those real goods and services out of the economy. Lowering interest rates won’t make more stuff. It will just make more… https://t.co/gkkkGOZeXz — Megan McArdle (@asymmetricinfo) April 28, …
With tariffs sweeping the planet, global shipping being cut off and knowing that 40% of fruits and vegetables are imported into the USA its time to protect yourself. We do not know how long this will last or what else in the agribusiness sector will not be delivered for food production. Marjory and I discuss …
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days. In the past 30 …
CALIFORNIA’S GAS PLAN: LESS FUEL, MORE PAIN AT THE PUMP California is about to lose 20% of its fuel-making power, and drivers are bracing for impact. Valero’s Benicia refinery will shut down in 2026, cutting over 400 jobs and slashing supply in a state already paying $4.83 a gallon—$1.68 above the national average. So, lawmakers …
Taiwan’s state-backed drone industry alliance has grown from 50 members at its September 2024 inception to more than 200 today and is expeditiously decoupling from China-based supply chains, Chairman Hu Kai-Hung tells Aviation Week. Hu, who also serves as the chairman of Taiwan’s Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC), says that the drone alliance is laser-focused …
TRUMP AND XI ARE PLAYING A GLOBAL GAME OF ECONOMIC JENGA… AND IT’S GETTING WOBBLY This isn’t just a trade war anymore. It’s economic Jenga, and both sides are pulling the same crucial piece: global supply chains. Spoiler alert — the tower’s wobbling. Trump hit China with 145% tariffs. That’s not a slap, it’s a …
Amazon is royally screwed without goods from China. This doesn’t just mean 71% of goods on Amazon come from China. The actual figure is likely much bigger as many goods from other countries also have Chinese input/origins. Cutting out China from US trade is like asking your… pic.twitter.com/lMlx3KHreA — Brian Tycangco 鄭彥渊 (@BrianTycangco) April 17, …
Global trade is falling fast 👀 pic.twitter.com/gsWsErePhm — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 17, 2025 let me repeat again, inflation won’t hit US because of #tariffs charged on import but because of supply chain disruptions similar to Covid – as soon as shelves will start to be empty again people will understand the meaning of …
The M2 money supply (basically all deposits in all banks) has surged since 2008. From $7.7 T to $21.7 T – In other words, $65 out of every $100 dollars in circulation today were created in the past 17 years. To put it in another context, FDIC insurance is still $250,000 per… pic.twitter.com/9nE4Z6lXqa — Brian …
FDA warns about fake Ozempic in U.S. supply chain. “Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and the weight loss drug Wegovy, told the FDA on April 3 that counterfeit 1-milligram injections were being distributed outside its authorized supply chain in the U.S., the agency said in a news release. That means it likely entered the market …
