Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Fear and Greed in Extreme Fear. Historically signals we're getting close to a short-term bounce. pic.twitter.com/tN4YpIHB0E — Tobias Carlisle (@Greenbackd) March 13, 2026 Tom Lee says the market will bottom this month. He also believes higher oil prices could actually be bullish for U.S. equities. If investors start worrying about slowing global growth, they may …
This isn’t some random commodities pop. This is what happens when governments fund deficits with short-term paper and quietly drain liquidity from the system. Money tightens, stress shows up first in hard assets, and suddenly everyone remembers what real collateral looks like. The market is front-running central banks because it knows the squeeze always breaks …
They were willing to drag the country to the brink for the timing of one vote. BREAKING: A deal to end the government shutdown is within reach. At least 10 Democrats are expected to back a vote on a funding package and short-term CR, Axios reports. pic.twitter.com/HdV1KpPU0q — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) November 9, 2025 …
by confoundedinterest17 Like tuna surprise (bleech!!), Fed Chair Powell announced a move towards reinvesting maturing MBS into ST Treasury bill decreasing the duration of The Fed’s balance sheet. Fed’s QT Surprise: Powell announced that maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) will be reinvested into short-term Treasury bills instead of longer-duration Treasuries, signaling a shift toward a shorter-duration balance sheet. 🧭 …
Beneath the noise of campaign slogans and media distractions, a serious shift is underway, one that shakes the heartbeat of corporate reporting and forces space for long-term thinking. Donald Trump did not float a suggestion. He issued a command. He bypassed regulators, skipped committees, and posted the demand directly on Truth Social. He told the …
It's very likely that the S&P 500 has just reached a short-term TOP. The Put/Call ratio is very contracted, and yesterday's market breadth was very poor. pic.twitter.com/B9ednkA6JU — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 15, 2025 ALERT: Bitcoin has just triggered the EXACT signal that preceded the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets Is history about to …
🚨BREAKING: Short-Term Yield 📈: Financial Stress? A sharp 📈 in 3& 6-month yields signal financial strains, similar to the 2019 repo crisis causes: •Liquidity Strains: Banks/hedge funds may face overnight funding pressures •Hedge Fund Stress: Losses or margin calls driving pic.twitter.com/HvkMtQ7zzE — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) April 1, 2025 Why are the 3 and 6 …
US: Bank prime loans & NFIB short-term loan rates Soon to fall? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/SLE8afYmoM — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 9, 2024 “The most recent surveys by the NFIB show that business conditions are deteriorating quickly for smaller companies that create about 65% of the jobs in the US. I could show you a dozen …
The House Rules Committee on Monday opted against voting on a short-term spending bill that would avert a government shutdown, setting the stage for a scenario in which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will need to rely on Democrats to pass the contentious measure. Johnson’s three month continuing resolution, which would keep the government funded …
from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network Host Kerry and guest Ed Siddell engaged in a discussion regarding the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, expressing surprise and skepticism about its implications. They examined how this rate cut might influence the upcoming election and noted the contrasting trends in job growth between the …
UK yields are rising after Prime Minister Starmer warned that his government’s October budget statement will be “painful” and asked the nation to accept “short-term pain for long-term good” in his first major speech in office. https://t.co/T90KgMhLN0 pic.twitter.com/VDRyTM20VN — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 27, 2024
The Treasury Department is being accused of trying to juice the economy, per Axios. "Short-term debt is becoming a rising share of all outstanding debt, while the share of long-term debt, like 10-year or 30-year bonds, stays flat." — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 13, 2024 We spent 33% more on servicing the federal debt than on …
by confoundedinterest17 Goodbye cruel world! Thursday, when the CPI report was released with a month-to-month reading of -0.056% (rounded to -0.1%), the six-month Treasury yield dropped by 8 basis points, and on Friday by another 2 basis points, to 5.23%. That combined 10-basis-point drop was a significant and visible 2-day move. It brought the 6-month yield just a …
Barcelona has taken significant steps to address the impact of short-term rentals on housing affordability. By November 2028, the city plans to revoke the licenses of 10,101 apartments currently approved for short-term rentals, including those listed on platforms like Airbnb and Homeaway. The decision comes in response to soaring housing costs in Barcelona, which has become Spain’s …
It's hard to understate just how unprecedented the scale of US fiscal stimulus is at the moment. Not only is the deficit massive for a non-crisis period, but its financing is almost entirely via very short-term issuance, which has never been the case before in a non-crisis time. pic.twitter.com/3mQWWPb7ds — Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) May 30, …
SHANGHAI, April 26 (Reuters) – China’s sliding yuan has been hitting the weak end of the band in so-called cash settlement transactions this week, making it challenging for banks and businesses on the mainland to transact, traders say. Under unrelenting pressure from rising U.S. yields and outflows from China, the yuan is at five-month lows …
Congress on Thursday passed legislation to keep the federal government open into March, approving the third stopgap spending bill in four months as lawmakers struggle to agree on long-term government funding plans. The bill extends deadlines to March 1 and March 8. Money for roughly 20 percent of the government — including the Transportation Department, …
🌍 Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rising. “Two continental shipping passages, the Suez and Panama canals, are suffering from obstructions to trade traffic.” Not good for short-term goods #inflation. H/t: @FinancialTimes pic.twitter.com/FBwiN1DIF1 — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) December 21, 2023 🇨🇳 China Bans Exports of Some Rare-Earth Processing Technologies China accounted for more than two thirds …
On Friday, Hawaii Governor Josh Green threatened out-of-state home owners in Maui who resist helping the victims from the recent devastating wildfires with a vacation rental moratorium. Hawaii Gov. Josh Green on Friday said he wants 3,000 condos and homes that are normally rented to Maui tourists converted to long-term housing for displaced wildfire survivors …
by Virtual_Crow The RRP facility is used to take excess liquidity out of the system. Banks have a ton of extra deposits that they would loan out, and if there’s too little demand for loans they’d loan it at less than 5% (for short term loans). The Fed doesn’t want that because loaned deposits multiply …
As the U.S. Treasury continues to issue trillions of dollars in new debt with relatively short maturities, there is a growing sense of unease. The strategy relies on the hope that interest rates will come down when this debt is ready to be rolled over, but if rates go up instead, it could lead to …
Small Businesses are now paying 10% on short-term loans, the highest level in more than 22 years pic.twitter.com/CFsSysV9zD — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 24, 2023
The Airbnb Apocalypse, as some are calling it, is no longer confined to major cities like New York City; it’s spreading to places like Kansas City as well. But let’s clarify something first: the bust and the apocalypse are two distinct concepts. Cities are reacting to an oversupply of Airbnb listings, and their response is …
2/ Recent market dynamics show a consensus for the "soft landing" narrative, spurred by a strong consumer base and a resilient labor market But, a deeper dive reveals emerging consumer weaknesses & the pivotal role H2 2023 should play in the unemployment landscape — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 28, 2023 4/ Indeed, compared to the …
