Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The U.S. Treasury is set to auction 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes this week, drawing close attention from investors. Recent auctions have produced mixed results, with some maturities struggling to attract strong demand. This round of debt sales will signal whether investor confidence is holding steady or showing signs of strain. The previous 7-year auction …
The House has narrowly passed a sweeping Republican-backed spending bill, marking one of the most significant fiscal moves in recent history. The legislation, championed by President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, extends the 2017 tax cuts, injects billions into defense and border security, and slashes funding for Medicaid and clean energy programs. The bill’s passage …
These hard data weeks are always one of the best since it gives a broad read on the economy – giving our most timely read on demand, production, housing, and employment. Instead of focusing on the wiggles (which can be jerked around by SA), more useful to look at y/y & levels. — Bob Elliott …
Big day for the dollar. Tonight is war:– PPI YoY (core inflation proxy)– Retail Sales (real economy pulse)– Powell speaks (narrative control) This isn’t just data — it’s positioning fuel. Liquidity will chase whatever breaks the illusion first. Be sharp. Stay liquid. Kill… pic.twitter.com/b56pN794al — Ananta (@AnantaSumantera) May 15, 2025 ⚠️Friendly reminder: Economic data will …
Tesla’s Cybertruck inventory has skyrocketed to a new record high of more than 10,000 units. The vehicle program is in crisis. We reported at the beginning of April that Tesla ended the first quarter of 2025 with at least 2,400 Cybertrucks in new inventory available in the US. There’s no exact way to track Tesla’s …
Exactly!!! Last week, the narrative focused on (X-M), gold adjustments… pure noise compared to the real story! GDP sales were negative, a rare event outside a recession. pic.twitter.com/TPj0Rrhm0i — XC Macro 🧭 (@XavierComelli) May 4, 2025 A picture of the typical American pic.twitter.com/xaHUa4Dme6 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 5, 2025
They say it is the future. They say it will change everything. But here we are, staring at a company trading at eighty times its sales with no path in sight to justify it. This is not a minor exaggeration. It is a full-blown hallucination on a national stage. Palantir is not solving world hunger. …
pic.twitter.com/NUzf0I3VGX — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 3, 2025 Florida housing market always the canary in the coal mine https://t.co/G5gtaf0CbQ pic.twitter.com/MxB4PFuxpl — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 4, 2025
Tesla sales dropping -63% in China Chinese are quietly realizing that it doesn’t make sense to buy essentially a Chinese car (made all in Shanghai) to enrich an owner who supports a hostile US policy Slowly all American brands sales will drop unless a reverse in US policy https://t.co/WRaEVLT1FC — Marco Castelli (@macastel3) May 2, …
Gov. Tate Reeves signed a bill into law Thursday to limit kratom purchases to people 21 and older and outlaw more potent forms of the herbal substance in Mississippi. The law will take effect July 1. House Bill 1077, authored by Rep. Lee Yancey, a Republican from Brandon, institutes fines for people under 21 who …
by Michael This is a very difficult time for real estate agents and homeowners that are trying to sell their homes. As I have documented below, sales of previously-owned homes in the United States just fell to the lowest level that we have seen during the month of March since 2009. Needless to say, in …
https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1915538856834715854 The housing market had its worst March since the global financial crisis, weighed down by high borrowing costs and falling consumer confidence in the economy. Home sales fell to their lowest annual level for March since 2009, dashing hopes for a rebound this year. Sales of previously owned homes plunged 5.9 percent from February …
by Martin Armstrong https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PublicSectorEmployee.Homelessness.mp4 California’s homeless crisis presents the public sector with a valuable political opportunity to expand its resources. The state and cities continually increase spending to combat the homeless epidemic without producing any results. Funding vanishes into the coffers of the public sector, with the number of people on the streets continuing to …
TESLA DIDN’T JUST WIN Q1—IT WIPED THE FLOOR WITH THE COMPETITION – 128,100 EVs sold—more than the next 10 brands combined. That’s not a lead, that’s a flex. – Model Y and Model 3 still sitting comfortably at the top. Everyone else? Still trying to figure it out. -Nearly 300K… https://t.co/qXmca9eQJj pic.twitter.com/6oVT6NA8Lo — Mario Nawfal …
Breaking March retail sales +1.4% vs +1.2% Ex autos +.5% vs +.3% exp. Strong numbers. With tariffs coming the market isn’t really reacting. Are consumers front running the tariffs juicing this months number? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 16, 2025 NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. shoppers increased their shopping last month, fueled by a spending …
TESLA OUTSOLD THE NEXT 10 EV BRANDS COMBINED IN Q1 2025 Tesla remained far ahead of the competition in Q1 2025, selling 128,100 EVs — more than the next 10 brands combined. The Model Y and Model 3 continued to lead the charts, showing Tesla’s strong grip on the U.S. electric… https://t.co/xLVmjpt4hn pic.twitter.com/Pzsvkf8bkq — Mario …
AT WHAT COST Millions of shoppers forced to pay new fee on groceries and goods under April 1 law and they’re not happy about reason Two cities in Southern California now have the highest sales tax in the country after the law went into effect The increase also means that two cities in northern Los …
Used vehicles sold in the United States rose 16 percent from January to February “…this year’s 16% increase is the largest jump seen in recent years.” -Scott Vanner, Economic Analyst “A total of 1.57 million used vehicles were sold at retail—from both franchised and independent dealers—during February, up 6 percent year-over-year. February sales up 6% …
Jeep is owned by a company that reports their earnings in euros. pic.twitter.com/jOFuVdUhTx — James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) March 12, 2025 Ya people are saying Elon is using taxpayer money to host Tesla show at WH… pic.twitter.com/zls8WkICsX — TeslaFUDKer 🍁⚡️ 𝕏𝕏𝕏 (@technoking_420) March 12, 2025
Mortgage payments now make up 40% of the average household income – the highest levels in over 30 years By the classic rule of keeping payments under a third of income, about 70% of Americans today can’t afford a mortgage Housing affordability is at a breaking point pic.twitter.com/qwn079KFPb — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) February 27, 2025 …
(Bloomberg) — Tesla Inc.’s sales plunged 45% last month across Europe, where rival carmakers saw a surge in electric-vehicle demand. The Elon Musk-led company registered only 9,945 cars in January, down from 18,161 a year ago, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. EV sales soared 37% for the overall industry, with carmakers posting big …
by confoundedinterest17 Did Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve push markets too hard? Sales of existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops that closed in January dropped by 4.9% from December, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 4.08 million sales, according to the National Association of Realtors today. This rate of sales was up just 2.0% …
Anyone buying this dip? It's only trading at 97x sales. I think it's a steal if you can get it under 100x sales. pic.twitter.com/qOojVBSxwq — Joseph Carlson (@joecarlsonshow) February 19, 2025 Palantir taking a hit after everyone finally realized no one knows what the fuck this company does pic.twitter.com/A0zZJl6W5b — Not Jerome Powell (@alifarhat79) February …
by Mike Shedlock The GDPnow Nowcast for the first quarter took a dive on February 14. Weather-related utility production lessened the blow. GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish There were three significant reports on February 14: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Import-Export Prices. Import-Export Prices did not seem to matter. Contributions to …
January saw a sharp pullback in consumer spending, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth, according to a Commerce Department report released Friday. Retail sales dropped 0.9% for the month, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December.. Much worse than the expected 0.2% dip. These figures are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, which …
by betsharks0 They need to ~10x sales to ever grow into their valuation. But at the current dilution that’s not enough, as share count doubles every 10ys at current pace. Palantir needs to 20x sales over 10ys for an IRR of 0. also think I’m very kind with 8.7x sales as a steady state valuation. …
Early car sales data for January is starting to arrive from countries across the pond, and they paint an alarming picture for Tesla. Sales are crashing in France, Germany, and the UK—all affluent countries that are key markets for Tesla’s electric vehicles. Coming on the heels of a large financial miss, it’s just one more …
Heavy truck sales – a leading indicator of past times – weakest since August 2021 pic.twitter.com/1E4fNfox5A — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 5, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 We are now seeing the aftermath of Biden’s failed, top-down, Soviet-style economic policies (or follicies). And it is grim. Bidenomics is now fully exposed like The Fully Month. Except this is The Full Joe! The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 …
Existing-home sales rose 2.2% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million, the strongest pace since February 2024 (4.38 million). Sales grew 9.3% from one year ago, the largest year-over-year gain since June 2021 (+23.0%). The median existing-home sales price progressed 6.0% from December 2023 to $404,400, the 18th consecutive month of …