- Existing-home sales rose 2.2% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.24 million, the strongest pace since February 2024 (4.38 million). Sales grew 9.3% from one year ago, the largest year-over-year gain since June 2021 (+23.0%). The median existing-home sales price progressed 6.0% from December 2023 to $404,400, the 18th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and biggest year-over-year growth since October 2022 (+6.5%).
- Even with the solid upturn in the fourth quarter, on an annual basis, existing-home sales (4.06 million) fell to the lowest level in nearly 30 years, while the median price reached a record high of $407,500 in 2024.
- The inventory of unsold existing homes dropped 13.5% from the previous month to 1.15 million at the end of December, or the equivalent of 3.3 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-ascended-2-2-in-december
It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak.
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $436,000 today adjusted for inflation (45% increase). That is why the second graph below is important – this shows “real” prices.
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-11
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 25.1% above year-ago levels.
For the 63rd consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared to the same time last year. However, the week’s growth was near levels seen throughout the winter, showing a narrower gap between current and previous year listings compared to last summer.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–increased 17.9%.
New listing activity can be bumpy around the holidays as homeowners turn their attention to the season’s festivities. This week brought the highest number of new listings to the market since October suggesting that sellers are ready to get into the market this year. The past two weeks have brought the most new listings so far this winter, getting the year started with a jolt of housing activity.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/realtorcom-reports-active-inventory-up.html?m=1
“The US largely avoided exuberance in the price-to-income ratio, but not in the price-to-rent ratio. Hence, it faced persistent inflationary pressures as rents started to catch up, leading to more aggressive monetary policy. ”
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) remained unchanged last week at 7.02%
Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 7% for the week and were 5% higher than the same week one year ago.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 0.4% from one week earlier and were 7% lower than the same week one year ago.
One week demand lag that was projected to start 8 months ago happening any day now.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/29/mortgage-demand-drops-further-even-as-interest-rates-settle.html