Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
President Donald Trump said Venezuela will turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil, which will be sold at market prices. But those 50 million barrels are only the first tranche and shipments will continue indefinitely, sources close to the White House told CNBC. U.S. sanctions will be selectively rolled back as …
PLTR is the Only Stock Worth >$400B, without Achieving $4B in Annual Sales byu/hazxrrd inwallstreetbets
The $16 billion company is pushing more into the transaction side of the real estate industry, which Jeremy Wacksman calls ‘a better business to be in.’ On his Zillow account, Jeremy Wacksman has “favorited” every home he’s ever lived in, just to keep tabs. Among them: a two-story, 2,500-square-foot house with four bedrooms, 2½ bathrooms …
One of Kentucky’s largest bourbon producers apparently is pausing whiskey production at the end of the year. Jim Beam, which is one of the largest makers of American whiskey in the world, is planning to shut down production in Happy Hollow in Clermont on Jan. 1 through 2026. The visitors center on site will remain …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought an update for my main economic theme for China. New home prices fell 0.4 per cent month on month on average across 70 cities, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The decline eased slightly from a 0.5 per cent fall in October, but …
by confoundedinterest17 According to Bill McBride at Calculated Risk, In October, sales in these markets were up 2.4% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were up 2.9% YoY NSA, so this sample is close. Miami FL and central Florida lead the nation …
BREAKING: New Jersey Democrat Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill is reportedly pushing a SALES TAX hike to 7% BEFORE she takes office, so she doesn’t take the political fall for it. YOU WERE WARNED NEW JERSEY Sherrill said on no raising taxes: “I’m not going to commit to anything.” Per NJ Assemblywoman @DawnFantasia_NJ , Sherrill is “tussling …
Stocks move lower. Microsoft is down -2% in premarket trading Stocks have taken a turn to the downside after a report from The Information that Microsoft has lowered its AI sales quotas. The NASDAQ index is now trading down -83 points. The S&P futures are implying a decline of -7 points. Shares of Microsoft are …
“25% of Buy Now, Pay Later users are now relying on it to finance groceries.” https://t.co/Yls4z8hHWS pic.twitter.com/wCSsyPEZK1 — Andrew Lokenauth | TheFinanceNewsletter.com (@FluentInFinance) December 1, 2025 BREAKING: "Buy Now Pay Later" sales are now expected to hit a record $20 billion between November 1st and December 31st, per Adobe Analytics. This would mark a +$2 …
42 % drop in home sales is enormous. The Chinese consumer has stopped spending. China is the # 2 largest economy in the world. It’s housing market is the largest asset class in the world. US is already in an undeclared recession. Watch 1st 3 to 5 minutes for main details. AC
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported slowing growth in monthly revenue, highlighting uncertainty over the sustainability of the AI boom even as industry behemoths including Nvidia Corp. chase more chip supplies. The company posted a 16.9% rise in sales for October, the slowest pace since February 2024. Analysts on average are expecting sales to increase 16% …
New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world’s largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to …
Elon Musk’s polarizing political actions since acquiring Twitter, later rebranded X, in 2022 dramatically hurt the automaker’s U.S. sales, underscoring how deeply its fortunes are intertwined with the billionaire’s persona. The findings quantify for the first time how the political actions of the world’s wealthiest person – including his role in U.S. President Donald Trump’s …
by confoundedinterest17 September US home sales printed at 4.06 million units. The US still hasn’t recovered from the Covid 19 outbreak of 2020 and the Fed’s response to Covid. On the commercial real estate side, CRE prices remain below Covid 19 outbreak levels.
Southern California home sales fell to their lowest level for an August on record as stubbornly elevated prices and mortgage rates – plus economic uncertainty – scared off house hunters. The six-county region had 14,476 sales in the month, according to Attom’s tracking of closed transactions involving houses and condos, both existing and newly constructed. …
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index has moved down to 55, a reading below 99% of historical data points going back to 1952. But at the same time, US Retail Sales grew 4.8% over the last year, outpacing inflation by 1.8%. We’ve never seen a disconnect this wide between what the US consumer is …
This is going to be worse than ’08. Foreclosures are ticking up. Some real carnage under the surface of this market Fast food and QSRs, home builders and home improvement, car sellers and lenders, payroll software, payment processors, private equity all quietly breaking down Probably nothing — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) September 30, 2025 The market …
President Donald Trump is holding talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House and indicating the U.S. might soon lift its hold on advanced fighter jet sales to the NATO ally.
Alcohol consumption is down and the market is taking notice. Stocks tied to beer, wine, and spirits are falling as headlines highlight the drop in drinking. Analysts and media offer explanations everywhere. People are choosing healthier lifestyles. Prices have risen. Younger generations are less interested in alcohol. All of that may be true, but there …
For those who have followed me long enough, you know that vendor financing has been Nvidia’s practice since the introduction of ChatGPT. They have consistently invested in startups and hyperscalers so that these companies could buy their GPUs. Now, with the massive numbers coming in – an estimated $55B in revenue next quarter, over $60B …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
Retail might be strong today, but underlying generational debt pressures and stagnant wages signal that this trend cannot sustain for more than a few quarters without breaking. "Gen Z and millennials are delaying traditional milestones like marriage, homeownership, and parenthood due to high housing costs and stagnant wages," per FORTUNE — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 16, …
🚨 BREAKING! 🇨🇳 China's August Economic Data MISSES Across the Board: 📉 Retail Sales YoY 3.4% (est. 3.9%, prev. 3.7%)📉 Industrial Production YoY 5.2% (est. 5.7%, prev. 5.7%)📈 Unemployment Rate 5.3% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%)Jan-Aug 📉 Fixed Asset Investment YoY 0.5% (est.… pic.twitter.com/totPuytZVq — MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) September 15, 2025 China’s economic slowdown deepened in August …
It’s their fastest-growing, most concentrated segment. If one pulls back, everything suffers, including margins, hiring, and priorities. What happens when one or both of these customers stop buying due to e.g.recession fears. The stock is 5 – 10% of major indices.https://t.co/rrXevbQqYm — Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) September 15, 2025 It is not only a Bubble, it …
The collapse isn’t whispered. It’s marching through neighborhoods, through MLS listings, through every open house where the buyers hesitate, the agents hedge, and the price tags crumble under scrutiny. The illusion of stability has evaporated while 56% of homes now sell below asking, exposing a market that once promised security and now delivers panic and …
CHINA'S BYD OUTSELLS $TSLA IN EUROPE FOR 2ND TIME THIS YEAR BYD crushed Tesla again in July with European 🇪🇺 sales more than tripling to 13,503 vehicles versus Tesla's 6,600 registrations that dropped over 42% from last year. This marks the second time BYD has outsold Tesla in… pic.twitter.com/PwvTJrpD3W — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Let’s discuss the latest e-commerce sales numbers. Please consider the E-Commerce Retail Sales Report for the second quarter of 2025. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, …
Rate cuts: like putting a band-aid on a sinking ship. For those begging for rate cuts, look back at 2001 and 2008. The Fed started cutting right before unemployment spiked. The pivot wasn’t a win, it was the signal that the real damage was about to hit. If the economy was healthy and booming, there …
Home prices are about to turn negative again. I illustrated the last several year of home prices to show what's under way. pic.twitter.com/OZGqCtMypQ — Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) August 16, 2025 Transfer of power to the buyers. 🤙🙌 pic.twitter.com/mTIec4zllk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 17, 2025
Good chips, bad quarter, everyone panics anyway. One of the biggest indicators of the need for non AI based chips…. “Net Sales- Corporate and Other: $12 million versus $14.87 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -47.8% change.” Toasted and people are freaking… — Financial Spiderplant …