Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Once again, the disconnect between what the stock market is hoping and what the consumer is telling us, is striking. Retail inventories are climbing month after month, and revisions are upward. The consumer is spending less and less and retail inventory levels are climbing… https://t.co/bBT0uZf6Ym — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 27, 2024 That’s just …
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have never lived through hard times or a recession thus their understanding of “risk” is completely …
My take is that 30yr mortgage is in a pause before heading higher. — Alistair (@kiwiangloameric) December 21, 2024 BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024 $500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024 Extremely …
The December Philly Fed Manufacturing survey was another disaster, collapsing from -5.5 to -16.4, versus an expected rise to +2.8. This is the weakest level of the year. More problematic, prices paid jumped while prices received fell. All signs point to #stagflation. Sorry, Fed. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 19, 2024 The markets still don't …
Enjoy your rate cut this week. There might not be another one for a long time. pic.twitter.com/Z04lWsu2Tn — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 16, 2024 This is what “sticky” inflation looks like. pic.twitter.com/zcKIeq34a2 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 16, 2024 Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose about a quarter of a percentage point last week, the biggest …
Yields pre-warning that history is about to repeat. 1972 national debts 400million2024 national debt 35 trillion. How does a 10 to 15% mortgage rate look like today? pic.twitter.com/9Ki8eewmJb — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 15, 2024 If gold repeats 1970s parabola move. The largest bull market in history will be in gold. 200 $ up …
BREAKING: Total US public debt hits a record $36.17 TRILLION, up $1 trillion over the last 105 days. US federal debt has risen by an average of $9.5 billion per day over the last 105 days. At the current pace, total US debt would hit $40 trillion for the first time in history by February …
What the elites eventually seem to forget is that if they don’t accept peaceful losses by democratic means, eventually, they may lose in some much worse way. A Coup Against Right Wing Movements Is Underway In Europe. In Germany the establishment is attempting to ban the increasingly successful AfD Party on the grounds that they …
Japan’s 🇯🇵 base salaries are rising at the fastest pace on record, pic.twitter.com/84KDHu8Sji — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 6, 2024
This is deeply alarming. Police officers are speaking out about the rise in violent crimes and home invasions, sounding the alarm on what's happening in our communities. How long until action is taken to protect 🇨🇦? Watch this video and created it by @carswithsonduren on IG. pic.twitter.com/tz9lURPkOj — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 6, 2024 Police officers …
EAGLE PASS, Texas — Human smugglers in Mexico raised their rates to cross migrants across the border into the United States as the task of even reaching the southwest border becomes more difficult. Among the number of reasons for that and the causes cited for the rise in smuggling fees is the outcome of the …
by confoundedinterest17 Its a slow down in the housing market. Existing Home Sales were expected to rebound modestly in October (+2.9% MoM) after dropping for 6 of the last 7 months to the lowest levels since 2010, and they did. Sales rose 3.4% MoM (a beat) but thanks to a downward revision for September from -1.0% …
#DEC With its resources the US will be OK. But I doubt Europe will be able to dodge this bullet again. Full blown depression there by end February 2025. — Wizard of Windsor (@WizardofWindsor) November 20, 2024 Lumber prices are now 19.8% higher than they were one year ago The framing lumber composite price increased …
These buyers made a huge financial mistake and eventually they face a choice: Either suck it up and keep paying the mortgage for 30 years, get foreclosed on, or just decide to walk away from the house. People bought houses they couldn’t afford. This is how we got here. https://t.co/7xxM0rEPPp — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November …
For the first time in 22 years, the 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded the S&P 500's earnings yield. The S&P 500 equity risk premium has also fallen to -0.44%, well below its long-term average. Over the last 5 years, the difference in yield has fallen by 5 percentage points… pic.twitter.com/hR5gSb35HH — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) …
Breaking: October PPI +.2% as expected but hotter than recent trends +.3% ex food and energy. Hotter than expected Annualized 3.1%. Also hotter than expected 🔥 Jobless claims down to 217k. Hot as well Bond yields up. Futures pretty flat — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 14, 2024
A recent survey by BadCredit.org reveals that 37% of Americans are neglecting their friendships due to the rising costs of maintaining social ties. 10% of respondents have even ended a friendship because of the financial strain, while 21% feel they spend more on their friends than their friends spend on them, causing resentment. The survey …
by confoundedinterest17 Put it where you want it. Trump that is! The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y CMT) went negative on April 1, 2024. And remains positive. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y CMT (constant maturity Treasury) peaked locally on March 29, 2024 and then fell, eventually turning negative on April 1, 2024. And remained negative until August …
TL;DR Food banks in swing states face record demand due to rising living costs. Families struggle with high rent and grocery prices, leading to increased food assistance needs. Michigan food banks, like Feeding America West Michigan, see first-time users and increased frequency of visits. Grocery staple prices have skyrocketed: 28% for bread, 43% for ground …
Yield erosion accelerates. Dow jones breaches 3 months trend line Nasdaq Double top . Semiconductors Down 13% from A/T high. Gold forewarning. Cattle misdirected with hope and bullish narrative. DXY up 5% from low. The $VIX forewarning. God bless and Godspeed. Yield erosion accelerates.Dow jones breaches 3 months trend lineNasdaq Double top .Semiconductors Down 13% …
People need to start realizing that the ways things were with borrowing from 2010-2021 were an anomaly. Zero rates are gone. Never coming back. Inflation is a beast. It’s hard to stomp out. You need to crush it and the Fed refuses to do it. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 31, 2024 It’s hard to …
The United States is facing worsening conditions in the housing market due to a shortage of affordable housing. However, a new study blamed billionaire investors for playing a key role in driving up the cost of renting and homeownership and increasing homelessness in the country. A report published Monday by the Institute for Policy Studies …
— Adam Hamilton 'Gold Stocks’ Secular Breakout' Gold stocks just achieved a major secular breakout to four-plus-year highs. A little more rallying will lift GDX to its best levels in nearly a dozen years.https://t.co/jqdO3DIjNV — Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek (@goldseek) October 26, 2024 BREAKING: Central banks now hold 12.1% of global gold reserves, the …
The trajectory. pic.twitter.com/7x59bmBk5k — Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) October 23, 2024 Why in the hell are we cutting interest rates? Honestly it’s complete insanity. The bond market hates the idea as you can see by the rising 10 year yield. Inflation is still a major problem and is not under control. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October …
TLDR: Tesla’s Q3 revenue hit $25.18B, below expectations, but beat EPS at $0.72 vs. $0.60. Gross margin rose to 19.8%, above the expected 16.8%. Tesla’s stock jumped 11% after hours due to the earnings beat and positive outlook. Tesla confirmed its cheaper EV production on track for 2025 and expects 20-30% growth in volume next …
“Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up almost 40% in the past year, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields or inflation expectations.” Gold has quietly outperformed all year. The precious metal is up almost 40% in the past year, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields …
⚠️US FOOD INFLATION IS BACK⚠️ Food prices rose by 0.4% in Sep, the biggest jump since February 2023. 5 out of the 6 major grocery store food group prices increased with eggs jumping as much as 8.4%. Over the last 4 years, food prices SKYROCKETED 22.5%👇https://t.co/OAcZin2MlG — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 15, 2024 Rising …
The bond market does not believe the Fed. Bonds signal inflationary and economic weakness risk is rising. via Bloomberg Stagflation… — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) October 12, 2024 Gold beats the S&P 500 this year as investors discount more currency destruction Graph via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/kf7nV9VhvZ — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) October 11, 2024
“Inflation driven price increases aren’t letting up, and neither are inflationary budget deficits that are likely going to keep going higher, regardless of which candidate begins a new Administration in January. Source: CBO” Inflation driven price increases aren't letting up, and neither are inflationary budget deficits that are likely going to keep going higher, regardless …
“While September CPI inflation is at 2.4%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 16.3% 2. Transportation Inflation: 8.5% 3. Homeowner Inflation: 4.9% 4. Car Repair Inflation: 4.9% 5. Rent Inflation: 4.8% 6. Hospital Services Inflation: 4.5% 7. Food Away From Home Inflation: 3.9% 8. Electricity Inflation: 3.7% Core CPI …