Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought some better news for the UK on the inflation front. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September. So an improvement although a nuanced one if one moves onto the monthly figure. On a monthly basis, CPI …
The stock market is being pushed up by the same small group every single day and you can tell they’re running out of room. It’s getting harder for them to keep the illusion going. The tape looks forced. Every rally looks like someone holding a beach ball underwater and their hands are slipping. Meanwhile regular …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The manufacturing ISM continues to reek of mild stagflation. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® Note: Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries. Please consider the October 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report …
🚨 2026 RECESSION ODDS UP TO 49% pic.twitter.com/sb2XNapYJW — Micah (@micah_erfan) October 28, 2025 So if we layoff everyone to increase margins this year, who will have money left to buy your products next year? https://t.co/1h0rTviPXw pic.twitter.com/2kAtdSgs2B — Boring_Business (@BoringBiz_) October 28, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1983199726452494695 The labor market is clearly weakening. Recent layoffs: 1. UPS: 48,000 …
⚠️This is INSANE: Retail investors' options volume spiked to a RECORD HIGH in October, according to Citadel Securities data. Mom-and-pop investors are now trading options TWICE as FREQUENTLY as they did last year. Also, their activity in 0DTE options hit a record ~60%. pic.twitter.com/cf4T9EIv3P — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 27, 2025 BREAKING: 🇺🇲 Starting …
by confoundedinterest17 Good news! Consumer prices rose only 3% YoY. Lower than the growth in M2 Money of 4.66% YoY and Federal government spending of 7.8% YoY. While consumer prices rose only 3% YoY, housing (shelter) rose 3.65 YoY. The US Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from 2Y-30Y.
by Martin Armstrong Corporations with assets exceeding $100 million are seeing a surge in closures and bankruptcies. Trends in Large Corporate Bankruptcy and Financial Distress—Midyear 2025 Update found that filings began to increase in early 2023 and have continued to rise into 2025. Over the past year, 117 mega corporations filed for bankruptcy. This is unusually high …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought some disappointing news for the UK from the labour market and we can start with what is already grabbing the headlines. The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.8% in June to August 2025. This is up in the latest quarter and …
via notayesmanseconomics It is time for another trip to a land down under and my attention has been piqued by this. Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for October rose to 4.8% from 4.7% prior, marking the highest reading since June. ( Forex Factory) That is from the Melbourne Institute and as you can see things are …
Gold is exploding to new all-time highs. The media is finally paying attention. But ask yourself: is it too late to buy gold? Or are we just seeing the beginning of something far more seismic? Is the new bull market in gold and silver just getting started? In this compelling interview, Jim Puplava sits down …
Here’s what it comes down to. The Murdochs and Trump’s people are moving in to own TikTok. Elon Musk already has Twitter. Zuckerberg does whatever helps him the most, no matter who is in charge. Bari Weiss is lined up to run CBS News. ABC caves the second anyone pushes back. MSNBC looks like it …
It’s the crisis of ages. A full fiat currency collapse. Gold will rise rapidly into a hyper-inflationary catastrophe. pic.twitter.com/HrqKnqSFMn — The Subsequent Fall (@subsequentfall) September 15, 2025 Gold and Silver are at 1979 overbought levels and have been for a solid two weeks, yet are continuing to rip. As clear a sign that the Fed …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Sentiment downturn strong in lower- and middle-income levels. University of Michigan Sentiment Index, chart by Mish Please consider the University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment Results for September 2025. Consumer sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and …
via Tom McClellan Every US president and Treasury secretary claims to favor a strong dollar, although they usually secretly wish for a weaker dollar, to make US exports more attractive. But I am betting none of them have ever been aware of the relationship between taxes and the dollar, shown in this week’s chart. What …
Oracle’s reported backlog growth masks serious risk. Much of the revenue depends on fragile assumptions about supply, capital, and infrastructure. Margins are likely to compress sharply, and competitors will feel the impact as revenue is shifted rather than created. The market may be mispricing both risk and sustainability, leaving investors exposed if these expectations fail. …
Gold is piercing a level that has held for 45 years. Moves of this size never happen in calm markets. Confidence in the current monetary system is fraying. The rally is powered by record central bank buying, ballooning U.S. debt, Fed credibility under question, and geopolitical fractures. The mainstream media has no idea why gold …
https://imgur.com/1NFuOyV Blood-sucking ‘kissing bugs’ have now carried a deadly parasite across 32 US states, the CDC warns, with hundreds of thousands of people likely already infected with the parasitic disease Chagas without realizing it. Only 29 confirmed infections were reported in the US between 2000 and 2018. The CDC is urging authorities to reclassify the …
Confirmation of source: https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2025-03-22 This is the latest edition of The Economist magazine. They are showing you what is coming. This is all leading to the mark of the beast. pic.twitter.com/d4FYaQGK7A — Truth Seeker (@_TruthZone_) March 20, 2025 Seems to be a theme…. View post on imgur.com View post on imgur.com View post on imgur.com …
Japan’s own fiscal house, buried under the weight of the largest debt load on earth, could unravel, forcing a liquidity crisis that spreads to Europe and the United States. Central banks that copied Japan’s easy money policies will face the same reckoning, only without the cushion of a domestic savings pool to absorb the shock. …
Fed’s Common Inflation Expectations Index just got updated and makes JPOW’s JH speech look even more awkward, if at all possible pic.twitter.com/xh36qnP5nW — KKGB (@INArteCarloDoss) August 27, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1960748123900252638 “No consumer price inflation” Is this a comedy act? Show me the CPI in 6 months🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/tGtulWJ71S — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 27, 2025 Fixed 30-year …
It is pretty incredible that the rise of male virginity coincides perfectly with the invention of Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/wIF0dvz1St — Boring_Business (@BoringBiz_) August 16, 2025 Bitcoin Bulls, look away . Bears, a pulchritudinous Rising wedge . She's beautiful. pic.twitter.com/Jb78YFI7Ma — The Great Martis (@great_martis) August 15, 2025
I’ve got bad news. The AI cycle is over—for now. I’ve been an unapologetic AI maximalist since the first time I tricked GPT-4 into writing a working Python back-test for a volatility strategy back in early 2023. I’m still convinced it will take the wider economy years—maybe decades—to fully digest the productivity shock we’ve already …
Are you tired of paying more and getting less every time you go shopping? Shrinkflation has gone TOO FAR, and companies are secretly ripping us all off with sneaky product downsizing and hidden price hikes. In this video, we expose the truth about shrinkflation and how major brands are quietly shrinking package sizes while charging …
The Kids Online Safety Act closely follows the Anti-Defamation League’s bill targeting anti-Semitism, which often means anti-Zionism in practice. Critics say Western governments, after backing Israel’s actions in Gaza, now push this law to silence dissent online. The timing looks suspicious. The law claims to protect children but mainly punishes social media companies with heavy …
Apple delivered $94 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, up nearly 10 percent year‑on‑year, and posted earnings per share of $1.57, above expectations. “Apple shares fell after the company trimmed its stock buyback program … ‘The $100 billion buyback announced is below the $110 billion announced a year ago, which we found as a bit of a head‑scratcher,’” said …
More than 630,000 graduates are claiming benefits amid fears over the rise of ‘Mickey Mouse’ degrees, official figures have revealed. According to the first data of its kind released to Parliament, a total of 639,000 people with an honours degree or similar level qualification are claiming Universal Credit. This means that more than one in …
Echoes of 2008 stir on Wall Street… Just as in 2000 & 2007, when weekly unemployment claims start nearing 300K you can kiss the bull market goodbye. Mark it down. 💯 Chart from @profplum99. pic.twitter.com/bJffcNyvN5 — John (@market_sleuth) June 19, 2025 CRASH WARNING🛑 Dow Jones 2008 vs 2025 Likely or Unlikely? Study carefully; carefully study. …
Housing Vacancy has increased 28% since the second quarter of 2022. Despite the claims regarding shortages. Now at 8.2% combined vacancy rate and no sign of slowing. pic.twitter.com/G7vaInermG — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) May 29, 2025 https://t.co/Fc03RBIPF7 pic.twitter.com/gQGpYEv08k — Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) May 29, 2025 The U.S. housing market is facing a dramatic shift, …
The U.S. economy has officially entered a downturn, with the latest Q1 2025 GDP estimate confirming a 0.2 percent contraction. While this revision is slightly better than the initial 0.3 percent decline, it still marks the first economic shrinkage since 2022. This signals growing instability, with businesses and investors bracing for further turbulence. The primary …