Oracle’s reported backlog growth masks serious risk. Much of the revenue depends on fragile assumptions about supply, capital, and infrastructure. Margins are likely to compress sharply, and competitors will feel the impact as revenue is shifted rather than created. The market may be mispricing both risk and sustainability, leaving investors exposed if these expectations fail. The AI-driven optimism in tech could be reaching a peak, and cracks are beginning to show.
If $ORCL saw a +359% jump to 455bn$ for its revenues backlog how come the Deferred Revenues it reported only increased +28.8% to ~12.1bn $USD?
Let me tell you why, because most of the revenue backlog jump $ORCL just reported is from pure garbage agreements without guarantees pic.twitter.com/YVy2oBkMQD
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) September 10, 2025
My contrary view.
The Oracle backlog blowout (with $ORCL future revenues ultimately still dependent on the availability of chips, companies' access to large sums of debt/capital and the need for a very large increase in power capacity), "could" mark the end of the AI trade.
As…— Dougie Kass (@DougKass) September 9, 2025
Less than 8 months after the DeepSeek panic, we have $ORCL forecasting its IaaS revenue will grow 14x from FY25 to FY30. pic.twitter.com/oHjfwT8NpS
— Eric Jhonsa (@EricJhonsa) September 9, 2025
Still amazed there are those who take this chart seriously… lol. Lmao even. https://t.co/JQdbqFuhKw
— Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) September 10, 2025
Apparently Oracle is running the new corporate math. Lay off 1,000 … claim 5-year growth, and hope Wall Street doesn’t ask how.
Layoffs were in the several thousands — more expected as well through October.
For Cloud specifically it sounded like it landed in the 300-700… https://t.co/1Tmvpp1hHo
— Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) September 10, 2025
I fully sold my $ORCL position now.
While the backlog and projections of $ORCL look out of this world, the fact is that most of the demand comes from 5 companies: OAI, xAI, $META, and $NVDA & $AMD doing sale and lease deals. This, for me, is different from if you had 100… https://t.co/YpQAeFgtcy
— Rihard Jarc (@RihardJarc) September 10, 2025
Wall Street in shock after Oracle conference call.
- As Oracle’s stock was soaring following the company’s earnings report on Tuesday, analysts were gushing about the numbers and the company’s prospects in artificial intelligence.
- “I’m sort of blown away,” said John DiFucci, an analyst at Guggenheim.
- Oracle now sees cloud infrastructure revenue climbing to $144 billion over the next four years, up from $18 billion this fiscal year.