Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Japan just blinked. Late last night, Japan’s Ministry of Finance said they are considering cutting back on how many super long bonds they sell. On the surface, this may sound like a dry technical tweak, but make no mistake, it sent waves through global bond markets. Here is why this matters. Fewer bonds issued means …
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. Q1 GDP FALLS -0.3%, EST. 0.2%; PREV. 2.4% 🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/mahT0YOWbX — Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 30, 2025 Breaking Q1 GDP first look. -.3% vs -.2% exp. Recession? Pricing index 3.7% vs 3.2% expectations Stagflation? Oof 🤦♂️ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 30, 2025 Yields up. Stocks getting REKT pic.twitter.com/ZVvzwrx8hX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April …
Reported #cognitive challenges among US 18-yo since 1990. What happened around 2010 that caused the sharp rise in reports? 🤔#SocialMedia pic.twitter.com/P7rndLi6oT — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) April 21, 2025
“When you think a recession is coming, it generally pays to sell first and ask questions later. Waiting for confirmation that the economy is declining is just too costly.” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/1FJyXAYRLE — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 18, 2025 WallStreetBets Calling For A Recession pic.twitter.com/R6yPWMOEN9 — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) April 18, 2025 Interesting https://t.co/IvAGawYORb …
I love this graphic. It took 38 years for gold to rise from $35/oz to $1,000/oz. Then it took 12 years to rise from $1,000/oz to $2,000/oz in 2020. It only took 4 years to go from $2,000 ~~~> $3,000 pic.twitter.com/jcabgwvYOM — CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) April 15, 2025 GOLD – Remember what I said…'it will …
Expectations for Personal Finances drop to most bearish level in history 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/w7G2j4cmUP — Barchart (@Barchart) April 14, 2025 The % of borrowers at least 60 days late on their car payments has reached an all-time high 🚨 pic.twitter.com/Nl1sM8jVQg — Barchart (@Barchart) April 14, 2025 60% of general admission ticket buyers at Coachella used Buy-Now-Pay-Later …
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures fall nearly -100 points as the selloff from today’s session continues. pic.twitter.com/iz4auNYI5O — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 11, 2025 BREAKING: Gold surges to a new all time high of $3,210/oz, now up over +90% since October 2022. pic.twitter.com/Hzcb2mch3B — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 10, 2025 This is not a …
President Trump is completely SILENT: It has now been over 36 hours since the last tariff headline from President Trump. No mention of any potential tariff deals, phone calls, or delays in tariffs. “Reciprocal tariffs” will officially go live at 12:01 AM ET. President Trump… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 6, 2025 Talk of …
Actually Steve Davis, who works with Musk at DOGE, corrected it in the interview saying that the online survey was part of an $830 million contract by the Department of the Interior that DOGE stopped. We saw the internal emails and contract that was stopped to back that up. https://t.co/RGtcefP2hE — Bret Baier (@BretBaier) April …
🚨BREAKING: Short-Term Yield 📈: Financial Stress? A sharp 📈 in 3& 6-month yields signal financial strains, similar to the 2019 repo crisis causes: •Liquidity Strains: Banks/hedge funds may face overnight funding pressures •Hedge Fund Stress: Losses or margin calls driving pic.twitter.com/HvkMtQ7zzE — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) April 1, 2025 Why are the 3 and 6 …
by Michael Have you ever not been able to sleep at night because you are stressed out about your finances? If so, you are certainly not alone. When there is simply not enough money coming in to pay all the bills, the pressure can be excruciating. The cost of food, housing and other essentials has been …
🇺🇸 GOLD CLIMBS AS STAGFLATION FEARS RETURN US consumer confidence just hit a four-year low, and markets are starting to panic. With inflation expectations rising and real yields falling, investors are rushing into gold—pushing it above $3,018. Fed officials admit goods… https://t.co/B4ffcDfY7p pic.twitter.com/TJR1XlmXAj — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 26, 2025
by Martin Armstrong https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Maher-on-Kamala.mp4 A new NBC News poll shows that the Democratic Party’s popularity has dropped to a record low. Only 27% of registered voters said they held positive views of the party — the lowest figure in the network’s polling dating to 1990. Former President Joe Biden continue to delude himself that he could …
Despite a nearly 3% rise and a big green candle, sellers dominated, as shown by the delta. This is an oversold rally & not a data driven one – one of the worst UMich reports on record – stagflationista galore. Technicals were at COVID crash bad and now resetting. pic.twitter.com/5NNqBljqSs — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) March …
Bitcoin is nothing more than a derivative of the major bourses, and once the broader market recognizes this truth, it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin faces an inevitable correction. The cattle, as they say, need to wake up. The impending slaughter for those who believe Bitcoin will remain untouchable is fast approaching. Once …
The drama unfolding is nothing short of entertaining. Bitcoin enthusiasts, once so sure of their “digital gold” narrative, are now spiraling as reality hits. The dream of a Bitcoin-backed reserve falls apart, and they scramble to find someone to blame. It’s honestly hilarious watching Bitcoin maxis lose their minds and have nose bleeds because Trump …
Yikes. So how can Japan keep their 10 year bond yield at 1.1% with their 30 year bond ripping higher? Their 2 year bond yield is .6% None of this seems sustainable Their currency will get trashed. https://t.co/zRpxIojQl6 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 15, 2025 And yet isn’t enough… JGB 30Y yield now rising to …
by confoundedinterest17 The latest jobs report was like the Cornell Hurd song, “It’s just the whiskey talking.” Except that this time it’s just the Biden Administration talking … and their jobs reports have been corrected/revised repeatedly. The latest jobs report saw Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 256k and mortgage rates (conforming) rose above 7%. But what happens when …
Inflation 2.0 reignited. Breaks 77 and holds yields explode. pic.twitter.com/M5wyYmdqP0 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 5, 2025 The US 30Yr minus the 3-month Spread is on the verge of a big move higher if it can clear 55 bps. pic.twitter.com/6jFk08m6yi — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 6, 2025 Strong U.S. Data Could Propel 10- …
Isn't it odd that the US Census released this data right after the US elections? Around a 4.6 MILLION immigrant increase since 2020 compared to the previous lies Total increase since Biden flooded the border, 7.2 MILLION. Do the math, each immigrant costs US taxpayers $68,000… pic.twitter.com/dc5AL4HLSw — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 30, 2024 Biden …
The Woke Mind Virus in our Universities. Frequency of Terms Denoting Prejudice in 175 million Scholarly Abstracts … it has increased dramatically over time. This is being driven by the far left in academia. Woke is communism rebranded and repackaged. Remember when the woke professor admitted it in a campus speech titled, “How to use …
Serious implications for the world. It’s not just people who are financially stretched or broke who are adopting this attitude. Now the rallying cry is “I will buy less (buy nothing) and I will be happy”. Maybe this is where the PTB wants us to go and be on UBI in our 15 minute cities. …
Australia is unleashing gene-editing technology like CRISPR across agriculture, medicine, and biology, revolutionising everything, from horses to humans. It works like molecular scissors, cutting DNA at specific locations and enabling modifications to correct genetic errors or enhance desired traits. A recent study on editing the NCF1 gene has raised serious concerns that should make everyone …
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, amid strong support from American voters and lawmakers, even though the move will drive up U.S. energy prices. “We’re banning all imports of Russian oil and gas energy,” Biden …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI pic.twitter.com/kPNU1t3OTz — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 21, 2024 This is concerning: Non-farm payroll employment in …
What have we learned from the market this Fall? There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful: 1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down 2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 20, …
This is interesting: The Walmart Recession Signal has jumped to the highest level since the 2020 pandemic. This is a recession indicator measured by Walmart’s stock price, $WMT, divided by the S&P Global Luxury Index of luxury goods stocks. The gauge has almost doubled this year, as $WMT has risen 83%, while the S&P Global …
TLDR: Bitcoin’s rise diverts investment from commodities. This suppresses commodity prices and inflation. Money goes into crypto instead of real economy goods. Without Bitcoin, investment would boost commodities and economic growth. Crypto mainly benefits the wealthy, not the real economy. Trump’s blessing on bitcoin could back-fire big time. Many are hoping China “stimulus” helps hard …
by confoundedinterest17 CMBS delinquencies are on the rise. The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, …
