Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Mike Shedlock The strange jobs reports continue as the divergence between jobs and employment widens again. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish Please consider the BLS Employment Report for November. Jobs vs Employment From September 2020 through early 2022, nonfarm payroll job gains and full time employment changes tracked together. Starting around March of 2022, …
by Martin Armstrong I have warned that there will be an exodus of migrants fleeing the United States for Canada in the wake of Trump’s presidency. The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada said that the sheer volume of asylum seekers has spiked to the highest on record, with the number of cases rising from …
By Egon von Greyerz THE CASE FOR GOLD IS INCONTROVERTIBLE As Eastern and Southern Central Banks substantially increase their gold holdings, Western Central Banks will most probably have little physical gold in their coffers. Total global gold reserves allegedly held by central banks (37,000 tonnes) are valued at $3.1 trillion at the current market price …
BREAKING: October PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, RISES to 2.3%, in-line with expectations of 2.3%. Core PCE inflation RISES, to 2.8%, in-line with expectations of 2.8%. Core CPI, PPI, and PCE are all back on the rise. What happened to the “Fed pivot?” BREAKING: October PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, RISES …
**Tether Alert** The idea that Wall Street is embracing Tether and Bitcoin is much clearer.The more Tethers are being bought, the higher Bitcoin goes. The higher Bitcoin goes the more Tethers are being bought. As Tether grows in size the more US Treasury debt is being… https://t.co/SwF1Ha6rQf — bob coleman (@profitsplusid) November 13, 2024 The …
“Credit card debt is exploding way beyond 2008 and 2020 levels. If history’s taught us anything, it’s that this kind of spike usually screams incoming economic crash. Time will tell.” Credit card debt is exploding way beyond 2008 and 2020 levels. If history’s taught us anything, it’s that this kind of spike usually screams incoming …
“They’re not long enough”@eliant_capital @marketplunger1 — AP Research (@AlphaPicks) September 30, 2024 1) Stepping in front of a runaway train is not a good idea2) A world full of universally high expectations can result in great disappointment.3) This trade is crowded https://t.co/hP5GIY9J4a — Scarlett & Carter's BaPa (@KASDad) September 30, 2024 GOLD – History in …
This is absolutely mind-boggling! The U.S. government has normalized running a $2 trillion deficit. They better hope there's never an economic downturn, or things could get catastrophic… Oh wait… pic.twitter.com/xZjW4JZkKm — The Cytadel (@thecytadel) September 12, 2024 Gold rising with rising US real rates conveys a simple message that has surprised many US investors but …
Layoffs accelerate and job growth slows, according to the #ADP and #Challenger job reports. This doesn't look good for #consumer spending or the economy. #Gold and #silver are both up. pic.twitter.com/KP9kqsQUnK — Rob Kientz | The Freedom Report (@freedom_rpt) September 5, 2024 Embryonic Capital Rotation Event Observations Clues to #gold, #silver and #Miners moving up …
No matter how hard they try, even the most skeptical analysts can’t help but talk up gold’s price. With the current gold bull run well under way, we turn our attention to silver. How is silver’s price so out of step? When silver does catch up, just how far and how fast will prices surge? …
Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings have seen an upward trend. In the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2024, personal and business bankruptcy filings in the United States rose 16.2 percent compared to the previous year. Annual bankruptcy filings totaled 486,613, up from 418,724 cases in the prior year. Business filings surged by 40.3 percent, reaching 22,060, while non-business filings increased by 15.3 percent to 464,553. BREAKING: The number of …
Credit card and auto loan debt delinquencies are stacking upThe only reason student loan delinquencies are at the lows, is because they are not reported until October 1, 2024As far as mortgages are concerned most are already locked into 3% rates. Let us see what this looks like… pic.twitter.com/pYy52fSK5J — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) …
The over-7% mortgage rates seem to have become a fixture in the housing market. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.07% in the latest week, and has now been above 7% since early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. During Rate-Cut-Mania, the average mortgage rate had dropped to 6.76% …
Rising government bond yields in Japan usually correlates with lower USD/JPY exchange rate. It should also put a selling pressure on long-term US government bonds as Japanese bonds become more attractive and Japan own $1.2 trillion US bonds. Source: Apollo pic.twitter.com/gpdwPLMowL — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 2, 2024 Spiking Interest Payments on the Ballooning …
Supercore inflation CPI jumped AGAIN in April to 4.9%, the highest in 12 months. Core services less housing inflation is a key metric followed by the Fed, also known as Supercore inflation. Last month's surge has been largely due to a 22.6% spike in auto insurance, contributing… pic.twitter.com/DYzVtPL3AD — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 18, …
A startling revelation emerges as conflicting job reports unveil a stark contrast in employment data. Despite official claims of a robust job market with a 640,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, the quarterly census of employment and wages paints a different picture, indicating a shocking loss of 192,000 private sector jobs during the same period. As …
by confoundedinterest17 President Obama selected Slow Joe Biden as his Vice President because 1) he was white and 2) an alleged foreign policy wizard in The Senate. Between Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and every other foreign policy disaster under his leadership, I am beginning to doubt Biden’s foreign policy acumen. For example … For the 9th …
With credit spreads on the rise and the 10-year TIP trading at 2.2%, financial conditions are tightening, sparking concerns among investors. While systematic funds tread cautiously amid thinning market depth, the next fortnight looms as a critical period. Contrary to expectations, inflationary fears drive Treasury yields up, leading to a plunge in stocks and a …
Geopolitical Turmoil Prompts Goldman Sachs to Upgrade Gold Even as It Skyrockets
When gold production is strong, it suggests confidence in gold’s value and the stability of the monetary system. The company, Fortuna, reported strong gold production in the first quarter of 2024. If the production numbers remain high and the price of gold continues to rise (approaching $2,500 per ounce), Fortuna could make over $150 million …
Governments around the world are diving into debt to keep their economies going. That makes things seem fine at first, but it leads to massive inflation. Buckle up, because more is coming. https://t.co/4B8E6z9BCW — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 5, 2024 The @NDR_Research Daily Commodity Sentiment Model is at its highest (most optimistic) since March …
The debt-service coverage ratio, a measure of financial health, has dropped significantly over the past year, indicating increased risk among leveraged loan companies. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer warns that if corporate profits disappoint, the stock market rally could end. Options markets show extreme optimism, suggesting investors may be overlooking potential risks. Something about swimming …
China's Real Estate Collapse At the heart of the decline in family wealth is China's real estate meltdown, which is having a pervasive effect on a society where 70% of family assets are tied up in property. Towards the end of last year, 34 of the top 50 Chinese property… pic.twitter.com/owUbTR8RjW — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) …
About 10 years ago my mother had a dream that millions of homeless people in America would be placed in homes by the government. I think squatting will become widespread throughout the nation.
BIDEN'S TREASURY SEC. YELLEN: "Americans are seeing the costs of some goods that are important to them, like rent, having increased…" pic.twitter.com/rGxk7bFxw7 — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 13, 2024 US Treasury Secretary Yellen: it seems unlikely that interest rates will return to levels as low as before the covid-19 pandemic. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 13, 2024 …
Okay, can we talk about MSNBC for a sec? So, they decide to censor Trump’s victory speech, and get this – it’s apparently ‘for our own good.’ Like, seriously? And then there’s Rachel Maddow going on about the ‘rise of Trump fascism.’ I can’t even. It just feels like they’re playing with narratives instead of …
What should you do when you are worried about your finances and the economy? Gee, how about spending even more money? Yep, that’s what many in the U.S. seem to be doing these days, with about 96% of surveyed Americans being concerned about the current state of the economy. Indeed, 27% of respondents to a recent …
Escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon unfold as reports indicate an Israeli drone airstrike near Maroun al-Ras, accompanied by over seven airstrikes in Naqoura. Israeli forces, which withdrew from Gaza, may rotate to the northern Lebanon border, signaling a potential shift in regional dynamics. According to an Israeli official, the situation in Lebanon won’t be …
Credit card spending has taken a nosedive, officially entering contraction territory, despite a reported 35% surge in retail sales above pre-pandemic levels. The discrepancy between retail sales growth and the significant decline in credit card transactions reveals a stark contrast in consumer behavior. Amidst a backdrop of soaring prices, with a 20% increase since before …
