Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Reversing a 75-year trend of lower tariff rates, Team Trump’s tariffs are expected to take tariff rates to 8.4% this year, the highest since 1948 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
A projected $500 billion drop in tax revenue means the government will have to sell even more bonds, adding pressure to an already strained market. With the deficit already at $1.8 trillion, this increases bond issuance by roughly 27%, pushing supply up while demand remains uncertain. That could send long-term interest rates higher, especially if …
According to Fortune, Donald Trump cares more about lowering the yield on 10-year bonds than the stock market or interest rates. At first glance, that may seem surprising, but let’s break down why this is crucial for Trump’s economic strategy. 10-year bonds are essentially loans that citizens give to the government for a decade, and …
by Martin Armstrong President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day …
Skyrocketing rates make homeownership impossible for most Americans, with $124,150 needed to afford the median home—far above the $79,223 median household income. As of January, "qualified income" needed to afford median home in U.S. was $124,150, but U.S. median household income was $79,223 … makes for a $44,927 affordability gap per @AtlantaFed data@DataArbor pic.twitter.com/hLA3s23L1o — …
Credit card interest rates are too damn high, according to an unlikely combination of politicians who’ve recently drawn attention to the subject. Money experts agree credit card debt can be a major challenge for many card users. At 20.1 percent, the average credit card interest rate imposes a steep penalty in the form of interest …
by confoundedinterest17 Did Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve push markets too hard? Sales of existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops that closed in January dropped by 4.9% from December, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 4.08 million sales, according to the National Association of Realtors today. This rate of sales was up just 2.0% …
This is just the start of a downward spiral. The Bank of England’s decision to cut rates when inflation was already creeping up looks like a massive misstep, and people will be feeling the consequences for a while. https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1892149956833657199 Ouch‼️ UK #inflation jumped to 3.0% in January, from 2.5%, led by transport and food. The …
The UK’s finances are beyond broken, and yet, the stock market cheers. The illusion continues—for now. The Bank Of England cut rates while increasing their inflation expectations If you think they did this to support UK economic growth then remove your beer goggles: – BOE run out of gold leading in the market inventory it …
The Trump administration is more focused on keeping Treasury yields low rather than on what the Federal Reserve does, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. While in the past President Donald Trump has implored the Fed to cut its benchmark rate, Bessent said Wednesday that the current strategy is using the levers of fiscal policy to …
Two senior Federal Reserve officials said Monday that they are in no rush to cut interest rates further given the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and the White House’s new policies, including tariffs. “In my view … it’s really appropriate for policy to be patient, careful and there’s no urgency for making additional adjustments, …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 One reason that US home prices remain high (and unaffordable for many) is The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime). Former Fed Chair (and Biden’s Treasury Secretary is no Luciana Paluzzi, the Italian beauty from the James Bond film Thunderball. Yellen is just a far-left economic hack. Look at the Case-Shiller national home price index …
Birth rates trace the decline in relationship formation in many countries byu/IAmNotAnEconomist inFluentInFinance
by Martin Armstrong Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Donald Trump face off once again. The two have notoriously butted heads over interest rates, as Trump has accused the Fed of stifling economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing. Speaking at Davos, the president said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.” We …
Link from Investing.com, Published 01/22/2025, 10:27 PM Updated 01/22/2025, 10:30 PM. The BOJ’s regional branch managers said wage hikes are spreading to companies of all sizes and sectors, meeting a key prerequisite for raising interest rates. As such, the central bank is likely to raise rates to 0.5% on Friday. Has the Yen carry trade already …
by confoundedinterest17 The latest jobs report was like the Cornell Hurd song, “It’s just the whiskey talking.” Except that this time it’s just the Biden Administration talking … and their jobs reports have been corrected/revised repeatedly. The latest jobs report saw Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 256k and mortgage rates (conforming) rose above 7%. But what happens when …
Lots of Florida real estate businesses filing bankruptcy. More of this as rates remain elevated. https://t.co/4iV1AoKE9v — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 10, 2025 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.24%, highest since May 2024 #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/IsmfKsfbJr — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) January 10, 2025
1. As of today, $ALLY is exiting its mortgage origination business. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) January 9, 2025 3. Burdened by mortgages made to borrowers with shoddy credit, $Ally began reporting losses in 2007 that reached $10.3 billion in 2009. The U.S. engineered the bailout to ensure that money kept flowing to the auto industry and …
“Why do home buyers keep taking out 30-year fixed loans if they’re no longer a good deal? And arguably even a bad deal at this point. The 30-year fixed is now close to its 50-year average of ~7.75%. If folks don’t expect to keep these loans for more than a few years, why are we …
Central banks have just engineered the worst crisis we've ever seen and now it's ready to go. By pulling the liquidity rug away they've set the stage for another crisis, all that's needed is the trigger/narrative. https://t.co/2RhyVZhH5c pic.twitter.com/tas2TgrN22 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 6, 2025 There goes the 10 year yield, climbing its way into the …
Cutting rates was a colossal mistake. pic.twitter.com/Wd41S5B8Cp — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 3, 2025 $TLT is not the same as $ZB_F fwiw. 30-year bond futures are quite a ways away from all-time lows. The long-end is on the rise for reasons that include: – Upside economic surprises – Risks of inflation resuming – The …
1/ Mortgage Meltdown Incoming? The share of 🇨🇦 mortgages in arrears (90+ days overdue) has jumped 50% since hitting historic lows. The latest rate of 0.21% might seem small, but here’s why it’s a ticking time bomb for the housing market. pic.twitter.com/ZPhxPWHTQF — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) January 4, 2025 3/ For context, the number of mortgages …
by confoundedinterest17 We are all riders on the Biden housing storm. Existing-home sales have finally started to improve on a seasonally adjusted basis after a three-year decline. Cause? Raging home prices combined with higher than normal mortgage rates. Home prices are up 35.4% under Biden while conforming 30Y mortgage rates are up 148%.
62 000 people are now involved in criminal gangs in Sweden. We have almost 60 no-go zones. There was 149 bombings last year. We have one of the highest rates of r*pes in the world. Socialist policies destroyed my Sweden 🇸🇪 — PeterSweden (@PeterSweden7) December 28, 2024
FED reassures the market that inflation is over by cutting rates.Bond market reassures FED that inflation ain't over. Shaping up to rival 73' -75' repeat. God help us all. pic.twitter.com/ZiKJ4qazxB — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 27, 2024 Yields will now keep rising until the equity market collapses. The die is set. — Uncle Milty’s …
https://www.zillow.com/research/birth-rates-home-values-20165/ There is always a question of causality, but I think we can discern high housing costs does, in fact, lead to reduced fertility: “Children are expensive. The USDA estimates that the cost of raising a child is $233,000 as of 2017. But what may not be immediately obvious is that 1/3rd of this figure is …
BREAKING: #Bitcoin tumbles under 94K. pic.twitter.com/sn0IuI52Qv — Jacob King (@JacobKinge) December 27, 2024 They need liquidity 😈 — TrippyMike (@TrippyMike_TC) December 27, 2024 The market woke up and realized rates are high, liquidity is drying up and Powell is still serious about not cutting as much as what is desired. NASDAQ down over 2% S&P …
Was looking through 2024 capital gains taxes: Capital gains tax Capital Gains Rate Single Taxable Income 0% Up to $48,350 15% $48,351 to $533,400 20% Over $533,400 h/t WarmFormal9881
