Mortgage rates at its highest in 23 years
People complaining about rent too expensive, Solution: make a mortgage just as expensive Problem solved or something h/t dc4_checkdown
rates
High interest rates drive people to money market funds, reducing banks’ lending capacity and increasing caution
People are moving money from banks to money market funds due to high interest rates This means banks will have less money to lend and they will be more careful with who they lend to pic.twitter.com/jmdzNAqR56 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 4, 2023 Capital Economics predicts 40% decline in commercial real estate values. Commercial real …
Inflation Alert! Bank of England raises interest rates to highest level since the Great Financial Crisis.
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/august-2023 Highlights: The BoE decided to raise the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.25% with a 6-3 vote. New projections assume the Bank Rate will peak at just over 6% and average just under 5.5% over the next three years. Economic growth has been steady, but recent indicators show possible weakening. …
UK house prices drop by most since 2009 amid rising interest rates (Housing Bubble 2.0 is bursting)
The UK housing market sees weak activity caused by rising interest rates, pushing mortgage rates above 6 percent for home buyers and existing mortgagors looking to refinance. British house prices fell by the most since 2009 in the 12 months to July, according to mortgage lender Nationwide, as the drag from rising interest rates on …
US government plans to increase debt issue size by 60% by August, financing over $2 trillion in deficits and refinancing maturing debt at higher rates.
The US govt is dramatically increasing its planned amount of debt it issues in the next 12 months. 🚨 Monthly Auction Sizes +60% by August Next Year vs the previous year. The USA has to finance over $2 trillion in deficits, plus refinance all of the maturing debt at the new… pic.twitter.com/9HbpkN7USD — Wall …
Small lender delinquency rates reach 7.1%, surpassing peak in 2008 and 2020. US default risk higher in 2023 compared to peers.
Great chart from PPG Macro showing delinquency issues beyond the large lenders. It seems that small lenders are increasingly exposed to overly risky loans. Commercial real estate loans are yet another example. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2023 Throughout ‘23 US default risk …
Bidenomics! Mortgage Demand Decreases 3.0% From One Week Earlier, But Purchase Demand Down 26% From Last Year, Down -45% Under Biden While Mortgage Rates Are UP 134% (US Interest Expenses Surged By 50% In Past Year To Nearly $1 Trillion On Annualized Basis)
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation under Biden has been very painful for the US middle class and low wage workers. That inflation has resulted to surging mortgage rates thanks to The Fed’s counterattack. The result? Mortgage rates are up 134% under Bidenomics, while mortgage purchase demand is down -45% since Biden was selected. And mortgage refinancing demand …
US Q3 GDP is expected to be 3.9% while inflation is projected to be 3.8% by September. This brings nominal Gdp to be around 7.6% in Sept… Rates are going 6%
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP est will update on Aug 1 which will be 3.9% up from 3.5%. Caption: Cleveland Fed suggests August cpi in September to be 3.9% but generally, it comes a % down. What this means is rates are 100% going 6% and then it upto our Jamie Dimon if …
American average credit card balance is $7,300, median household savings $5,300, and delinquency rates rise 6 consecutive quarters. We are “fighting” inflation with credit cards.
For the first time in history, total credit card debt is about to cross $1 trillion. Since Q4 2020, total credit card debt is up over $200 billion. Americans currently hold a record $986 billion in credit card debt. 2/7 pic.twitter.com/L2cfwDWWEY — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 1, 2023 According to a survey conducted in …
Bidenomics? C&I Lending Growth Crashes Along With Bank Credit Growth (WTI Crude Oil UP 1% This Morning) 30-year Mortgage Rates At 7.27%
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics, aka the Federal government takeover of the US economy with Soviet-style economic central planning, is highly dependent on loose Federal Reserve monetary policy (Janet Yellen and Powell’s wild overreaction to the massively inappropriate Covid shutdowns), So, how is Bidenomics working out? On the bank lending front, commercial and industrial (C&I) lending growth …
CRE Fire! Office Valuations Plummet As Fed Raises Rates To Fight Inflation (US Gross Domestic Income YoY Fell To -0.8% In Q1, NOT A Good Sign!)
by confoundedinterest17 Commercial real estate (CRE), particularly office space, reminds me of the Arthur Brown tune “Fire!” except that Jerome Powell of The Federal Reserve is the God of Hellfire! While fighting inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending (aka, Bidenomics). Call this the Over, Under, Sideways Down economy. The top 1% are doing quite …
Bidenomics At Work! US Pending Home Sales Crash -14.8% YoY As Fed Pushes Rates Up, Negative Growth For 24 Of Last 25 Months (Is Fed Chair Powell Actually Mr. Freeze?)
by confoundedinterest17 The Biden Administration is gushing about Q2’s Real GDP report of 2.4% QoQ. Wow, after trillions of dollars of stimulus spending and The Fed going wild with monetary stimulus, all we got was 2.4% growth?? But let’s turn the cameras on the housing market. Pending home sales crashed -14.8% YoY in June. Is …
European Central Bank raises rates for 9th time, a 23-year high. Business credit conditions in the EU at 2008 levels
The European Central Bank just raised rates for the 9th consecutive time Inflation in Europe is still 5.5% Rates are now at a 23-year high in Europe: pic.twitter.com/YSpUeBSw1H — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) July 27, 2023 Business credit conditions in the EU at 2008 levels ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/uH6x9eiT1E — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 27, 2023 Home …
KJP “Hurts So Good” Presser: Prices UP 16.6% And Real Wages Down -3% Since Biden Took Office (Food UP 56%, Gasoline UP 52%, Mortgage Rates UP 153%) Hurt So Good???
by confoundedinterest17 Biden Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “The American people are beginning to feel Bidenomics” Prices are up 16.6% and real wages are down 3% since Biden took office. Well, at least Jean-Pierre didn’t claim like her boss Joe Biden claimed that he “ended cancer as we know it.” But getting back to Jean-Pierre’s claim that …
Biden’s Mortgage Market! Mortgage Demand Falls 1.8 Since Last Week, Purchase Mortgage Demand Down -49% Since April 2021, Refi Mortgage Demand Down -87% As Mortgage Rates Up 115% (Hurts So Bad?)
by confoundedinterest17 Biden loves to brag about Bidenomics, or should I say selective stats like the labor market. But the mortgage market hurts so bad. Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 21, 2023. The Market …
Economic and social terrorism by elite and Federal Reserve rewards speculators; Financial conditions are loosening at a fairly steady clip, even as the Fed prepares to hike rates to the highest level since 2001.
Darth Powell knows: This is the result of economic and social terrorism caused by the elite/donor class and Federal Reserve. Rewarding the most worthless, least productive members of society (asset price speculators) over actual production/innovation. https://t.co/UhRkGnrXJL — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 25, 2023 How long can the Fed & its PE accomplices delay the inevitable? …
Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Slows To -0.46% YoY As Fed Withdraws Covid Stimulus SLOWLY (Mortgage Rates UP 151% Under Bidenomics, Taylor Rule Suggests Fed Rate Of 10.42%)
by confoundedinterest17 The Case-Shiller home price numbers are out for May. The national home price index is down -0.46% YoY as The Fed slows M2 Money growth into negative growth territory. No doubt Biden (and Karine Jean-Pierre) will take credit for slowing home price growth, although The Federal Reserve slowing monetary stimulus is mostly responsible. …
CRE Storm: Over $800 Billion In Office Space In Nine Cities Could Become Obsolete By 2030 (Office Vacancy Rates Soar As Fed Went Crazy With Stimulus)
by confoundedinterest17 Thanks to The Federal Reserve, office property values have gone crazy despite rising vacancy rates. US office space vacancies (white line) have soared since 2008 as The Fed’s massive monetary expansion (blue and green line) has not helped. But Fed monetary expansion DID help drive office prices! At least until 2022, when office space …
Corporate net interest payments stay low due to fixed debt, higher interest rates slow to drive a recession
This chart is FASCINATING! Corporates have seen NET INTEREST payments fall bc they fixed debt when rates were low (2020/21) and now are benefitting from higher rates on their cash. A reason why higher interest rates slow to drive a #recession. Thoughts @KeithMcCullough? pic.twitter.com/Ulm9RK2ch7 — Enrique Abeyta (@enriqueabeyta) July 22, 2023
High interest rates drive inflows to money market funds, pressure banks; Falling inflation impacts earnings
High interest rates continue to cause rapid inflows to money market funds from bank deposits This should put pressure on banks causing them to maintain tight lending standards pic.twitter.com/wzZaFSQKjW — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 19, 2023 Beware: Falling inflation is a major headwind to earnings, since the latter is calculated on a nominal basis pic.twitter.com/6pfHKixGLd …
Home price-to-income ratio surpasses 2008 housing bubble. US median home price rises 38% since 2020, mortgage rates is up from 2.7% to 7.1%. They will kill houses?
https://t.co/HalIfhU6gE — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 19, 2023 The median home price in the U.S. is up ~38% since 2020. The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is up from 2.7% to 7.1% in ~2.5 years. The average mortgage payment on a 30-year mortgage is now $2,900. Could you afford to buy your …
Car insurance rates hit highest levels in 30 years due to more accidents, higher repair costs, bigger medical bills and increased litigation
via naturalnews: Rates of car insurance have hit highest levels in the past 30 years as cost of claims soared since the pandemic, due to more accidents, higher repair costs, bigger medical bills and increased litigation. The Wall Street Journal reported that many insurers have experienced significant losses over the last few years, which only means that premiums will continue to rise. …
Americans face increased credit rejection rates, reaching 21.8% in 12 months through June. The rejection rate for auto loans exceeded the application rate.
Americans are having a much harder time accessing credit. The rejection rate for loan applicants jumped to 21.8% in the 12 months through June, the highest level in 5 years: Fed data. The rejection rate for auto loans exceeded the application rate. https://t.co/Ag5BnmDKlP pic.twitter.com/w6iSrPAqoj — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 17, 2023 https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/ Wut mean? …
Used Electric Vehicle Prices Crashing As Fed Pushes Auto Loan Rates Above 7% (60M Auto Loan Rates Up 74.4% Under Bidenomics)
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, one of the cornerstones of Bidenomics is the massive expansion of (impractical) electric vehicles (or EVs). You know, those mondo expensive cars that run out of power after a couple of hundred miles requiring a lengthy recharge (kind of makes long distance trips the domain of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars. But …
California home owners will see a 35%-50% increase in home owners insurance rates
You will own NOTHING and you’ll be happy! Since REINSURANCE companies are global (not based in the US), they aren’t subject to US laws/regulations. Guess which group of international GLOBALISTS own the REINSURANCE companies? Many insurance companies are deciding to pull out of the California market altogether, leaving home owners with no options. This in …
Why Slower Inflation Won’t Prompt the Fed to Lower Rates
by bitkogan Sure, 3% is better than 9%. But given the new record highs in stock indices, it’s still not better enough to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates anytime soon. Firstly, 3% is still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Secondly, the low (relatively speaking) figures for the general consumer price index …
Interest rates reach Financial Crisis levels, causing tight monetary policy headwind in H2 2023.
Interest rates are at levels comparable to that seen during the Financial Crisis Tight monetary policy is going to be a major headwind for the economy in H2 2023 pic.twitter.com/i7eXcI5Lxf — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 12, 2023 This is the first S&P 500 new (52 week) high that is not confirmed by mega cap Tech. …