Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
There are around 772,000 homeless Americans (nearly 230 for ever 100,000 Americans), according to the last time a point-in-count assessment was done in 2024. In this visualization, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, take a look at the highest homelessness rates by state, measured per 100,000 residents. Hawaii tops the ranking with 805 people experiencing homelessness for …
December rate cut odds are ticking lower after Fed member warns of stagflation #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/QHlkPIADLo — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2025 Fed’s Logan: WE FIND IT DIFFICULT TO CUT RATES AGAIN IN DECEMBER INFLATION IS TOO HIGH INFLATION TAKING TOO LONG TO RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET We are being primed for no rate cut …
Soon they will start approving 40-50yr mortgages to pretend its affordable because “the monthly payment is only 60% of your income, totally affordable!” I’ve been saying this for years. It’s the high prices not the rate. It’s time for the housing market to come to terms with this. pic.twitter.com/QlTT7uBDVR — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 27, …
Discover the global ranking of divorce rates across 109 countries. From nations with the lowest divorce rates to those with the highest, this video shows how marriage stability differs around the world. AC
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Only the wealthy will benefit from ZIRP, and the benefits of “the wealth effect” and “trickle down” have not just diminished–they’re now negative. Welcome to the era of ZAP. Correspondent Scott suggested I consider the possibility that the powers that be will respond to a weakening of the economy by pushing …
China's G1 humanoid robot is mastering combat skills at a terrifying rate pic.twitter.com/CTv5W1QXZj — Interesting AF (@interesting_aIl) October 22, 2025 https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-g1
by Michael Why would scientists purposely try to make the flu more deadly? During the flu pandemic of 1918, it is estimated that somewhere between 50 and 100 million people died globally. But apparently that is not good enough, and so they have come up with a far deadlier version, and they have published their …
Key Takeaways America’s median home price-to-income ratio has risen from 3.5 in 1985 to 5.0 in 2025. In 2025, the median price for an American home is $416,900, up from $82,800 in 1985. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have reduced from 12.4% to 6.8% between 1985 and 2025. Buying a home in America isn’t for the faint-hearted, …
Continuing trend pic.twitter.com/O0k2lv0xTM — JuiceBoxHero 🌖 (@JuiceBoxHero775) October 8, 2025 At this rate gold will hit $5000 in about two weeks — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 8, 2025 Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was almost entirely …
Commercial delienquent obligations in a parapbolic uptrend pic.twitter.com/BdsleKWmKu — Ari.Is.Investing (@InFoTheLongTerm) October 5, 2025 The office and multifamily sectors of commercial real estate loans got further bludgeoned in August, despite large-scale extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals executed in the hopes for better times and lower interest rates and more demand so that lenders don’t end up …
We are watching power bend in real time. Trump is signing executive orders at a pace no modern president has ever attempted, and the claim now is that he is doing it faster than every one of his predecessors combined. That kind of statement sounds like hype, but even if the numbers are inflated, the …
Must be time for another crisis. Job openings held steady in August but real-time measures don’t look so good for September. pic.twitter.com/RCNiOOKKvn — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 30, 2025 6 Month Change in Private Employment 👇🏼 “Ruh Roh” pic.twitter.com/me2QNy0YZy — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) September 30, 2025 🚨BREAKING: The US labor market is CONTRACTING. US …
Trump tells Pfizer CEO to his face that he is “surprised” he is agreeing to massive price cuts to his company’s drugs. Albert Bourla smiled and stood silently as Trump announced devastating news for his company. Pfizer will now be selling prescription drugs to Medicaid at the “most favored nation’s prices.” This means that the …
PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2% PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% But the trend is one – inflation goes UP pic.twitter.com/TmrXCFoc3C — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 26, 2025 The Fed has to keep cutting rates. The cost of borrowing is far too high …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Is the market right or the Fed? I created the above chart from CME Fedwatch projections on September 20. The Fed and the market project roughly the same path through December of 2025. However, the Fed “dot plot” of economic projections has the Fed Funds rate for December of 2026 at …
by confoundedinterest17 In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets. Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates? Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The saga of the bifurcated economy continues. Gen Z getting hammered. Credit Scores Plunge Trump says the economy is booming. But FICO notes credit scores are down for the second year. . CNN comments Credit scores drop at fastest pace since the Great Recession The national average FICO score dropped …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
You can’t cut rates when you have inflation. David Tepper says Fed could cut a few more times, but easing too much risks entering ‘danger territory’ Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said the Federal Reserve could cut rates a bit more, but then risks more inflation and other dangers to the economy and markets if …
by confoundedinterest17 Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow. But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor. Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has …
People are fully long into the FOMC and rate cuts. Sentiment is at extremes. Careful out there. pic.twitter.com/wyrI3OccUq — THE SHORT BEAR (@TheShortBear) September 13, 2025 SERIOUS CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES CLIMB TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 14 YEARS https://t.co/VjVIFGTOZk — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) September 13, 2025 And on top of this, Nets are still way …
by confoundedinterest17 US housing is simply unaffordable! Mortgage rates remain elevated since the Biden Administration took control in 2021. Although under Trump, the rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has slowed. But the 30-year mortgage rate is up 126% since the beginning of 2021 and the “Joe The Boss” Biden administration. Mortgage originations at large banks …
“Wknd thought: Very Long Thread on System Liquidity Some see a raging bull market. I see a system exhausting every last bit of available liquidity for one final dance. Those who argue bullishness on solvency (pointing to high aggregate household wealth or strong asset-to-margin-debt coverage) miss the point. Credit Suisse had a CET1 ratio of …
Employers only lay off as a last resort after trying everything else. Rehiring happens slowly, if at all, when jobs are gone, it's hard to come back.with 25 or 50bps cuts, employers will not hire back these people they just let go simply because laying off people usually is the last option they do after …
Sellers in some US metros are growing so frustrated with the state of the housing market they are de-listing their homes at an alarming rate. Beyond slowing sales and flat prices, de-listings have become a defining feature of this summer’s housing market. Nationally, de-listings rose 57 percent in July compared to the same time last …
Friendly reminder: the 129-year-old Dow Theory flipped bearish back on March 14, 2025. The "things that make shit index" $DJI is pushing higher, but the "things that move shit index" $DJT is not confirming. Without confirmation, the "oldest market signal" is still flashing a… pic.twitter.com/4nMsCYel6O — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) September 10, 2025 https://twitter.com/TommyThornton/status/1965790936849633290 …
The Fed would be foolish to hike 0.5, it would signal they’ve been wrong all along. A 0.25 hike now and another 0.25 next month is the smarter approach. .50 Fed rate cut imminent? Those numbers were ice cold. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 10, 2025 PPI ICE COLD: The Producer Price Index for final …
Gold is piercing a level that has held for 45 years. Moves of this size never happen in calm markets. Confidence in the current monetary system is fraying. The rally is powered by record central bank buying, ballooning U.S. debt, Fed credibility under question, and geopolitical fractures. The mainstream media has no idea why gold …
Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, former Lehman Brothers trader and senior executive, author and Founder of the Bear Traps Report https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ paid newsletter, Larry McDonald
