Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
👀 👀 This is what usually happens once the rate cuts start. pic.twitter.com/ocumfep07B — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 9, 2025 Wall Street has a new religion: the rate cut. But to receive its blessings — beefier market valuations, more robust lending activity, a stronger-ish economy — there must first be a sacrifice. It’ll have to …
911K Job Growth Revisions Color me not surprised. https://t.co/xWCzOX1Im4 pic.twitter.com/jCjWB3pON3 — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) September 9, 2025 Big 50bps cut at the next FOMC meeting is a lock: https://t.co/thO5HFLVos — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) September 9, 2025 The US BLS overstated the number of jobs added by ~76,000 PER MONTH. In June, the US …
Everyday costs are exploding. Gas is up 94 percent. Electricity is up 78 percent. Fuel is up 49 percent. Hotels are up 38 percent. Rent and food are up 25 percent. Average earnings have fallen 2.8 percent. Citizens are being squeezed from all sides and the economic strain is driving a subtle exodus. This is …
GB News star Miriam Cates sits down with data scientist and demographer Stephen J Shaw to examine why birth rates are falling, what the figures reveal about women having fewer children, and how shifting societal norms could influence the next generation’s views on family and parenthood.
1️⃣ Japan – 2.3% (July) 2️⃣ U.S. – 4.3% 3️⃣ U.K. – 4.7% (Q2) 4️⃣ Italy – 6.0% (July) 5️⃣ Germany – 6.3% 6️⃣ Canada – 7.1% 7️⃣ France – 7.5% (Q2) Read Maritime combined, 3/4 of the population aren’t working! •NFL: 10.7 % (10.5)•PEI: 8.1 % (8.8)•NS: 6.5 % (7.0)•NB: 7.7 % (7.5)•QC: 6.0 …
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), based on official BLS data: 2022: 3.5% 2023: 3.8% 2024: 4.1% June 2025: 4.1% July 2025: 4.2% August 2025: 4.3%
by confoundedinterest17 Not exactly the Guns Of August. More like a wet cap gun firing. The jobs report for August showed only 22k jobs added. U-3 unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U-6 unemployment and part-time rose to 8.1%. Total private jobs added was 38k while manufacturing jobs added was down -12k. Government jobs dropped -16k. …
Over 300,000 jobs vanished from the books in four months, the labor market was never strong. The Fed is late: Based on recent data, President Trump's calls for rate cuts beginning ~5 months ago were correct. And, it's even more evident that this is the case after over -300,000 jobs were revised out of 4 …
The system’s crumbling, gold’s at $3500, a dead canary in a coal mine. Central banks cut rates as inflation hits 3%, pure sabotage dressed up as policy. Yields at 30-year peaks shout panic, not control. They’re pumping a bubble to dodge the collapse. This isn’t economics, it’s a knife in your back. Your money’s burning …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning the focus is back on the Bank of England and we cam start with something which will match the new autumnal mood for the weather at least for the research student presenting the morning meeting. “August saw a slight softening in the rate of annual house price growth to 2.1%, from …
Truflation has been arguing that inflation is a non-problem and calling for the Fed to cut rates (below). But their latest readings are flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation. August 4th is labeled. It was 1.65%. Today it is 2.31%, a considerable increase of 0.66% in less than a month. And, as the …
Failure wears the mask of governance. Karoline Leavitt did not hold a press briefing. She delivered a postmortem. “Your leaders are lying to you — and they have been failing you for decades.” link Chicago murders explode in numbers that shock the conscience. “In 2024, Chicago’s murder rate per capita was three times higher than …
The fertility rate for England and Wales has fallen for the third year in a row to reach a record low, figures show. The total fertility rate across both countries, meaning the average number of live children women can expect to have across their child-bearing life, stood at 1.41 in 2024, down from 1.42 in …
How the HELL is Trump demanding rate cuts not a direct conflict of interest? -Trump empire tied to real estate -Entire fam heavily into crypto -Extended fam run PE/VC/investment firms -DTJ buys ~$100m worth of bonds This is absolutely absurd the more I think about it How the HELL is Trump demanding rate cuts not …
Too many babies are dying. Too many babies have already died. Too few are shouting that the collapse is not a coincidence. Mississippi is bleeding life before it even begins. Each number is a scream. Each statistic is a failure of a system that claims to protect the most vulnerable but leaves them to perish. …
https://twitter.com/AlessioTMAD/status/1959952991399596149 Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index has risen to highest since late February (near when S&P 500 peaked that month) pic.twitter.com/eDKvF0VSx9 — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 25, 2025 Bloomberg @economics’ Fed Sentiment NLP Model jumped by 0.49 points on Friday (one of largest single-day jumps this summer) … implies that Powell’s speech leaned more …
Markets cheered, but the message was hawkish. Powell didn’t promise cuts. He didn’t hint at September. He made the Fed’s caution sound like reassurance. That’s not dovish. That’s tight policy, carefully cloaked. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. Stocks …
Trump is not playing coy. On Wednesday he blasted Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook with a blunt demand: “Resign, now!!!” The trigger? A Bloomberg report of a possible mortgage fraud probe, amplified by his allies. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-fed-governor-cook-131136021.html BREAKING: The US Department of Justice says it has received a criminal investigation referral related to Fed Governor Cook …
DC crime since the announcement of federal control versus the 7 days prior: Robbery ⬇️46%ADW ⬇️6%Carjacking ⬇️83%Car Theft ⬇️21%Violent Crime ⬇️22%Property Crime ⬇️6%All Crimes⬇️8% While federal assistance gives us a boost, we must repeal the misguided Comprehensive… — DC Police Union (@DCPoliceUnion) August 18, 2025 Trump has D.C. so locked down that even Bret Baier …
$UNH has filed for 26% increase in ACA rates for the next year. Even $OSCR filed for 21% increase. Healthcare companies are set to see a V-shaped margin recovery next year. It’s currently the cheapest S&P 500 sector at 16 times earnings.$UNH $ELV $OSCR $CNC $CI pic.twitter.com/TNVe6EpqqU — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) August 13, 2025 https://twitter.com/longoption/status/1955331322852876338 …
Socialism’s track record: 100% failure rate. Mamdani’s confidence level: Still 100%. Math was never their strong suit. — so what, now what? (@_sowhatnowwhat) August 13, 2025 Sun Fresh Market at Linwood and Prospect closed this week Taxpayer investment: nearly $29 million https://www.kmbc.com/article/sun-fresh-market-linwood-prospect-closes-taxpayer-funding/65669833 Store struggled for months to keep shelves stocked Security costs surged Sign now …
“Payroll employment growth slowed sharply to only 35,000 jobs per month over the three months ending in July. This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/08/09/federal-reserve-rate-bowman/1681754774717/ The Fed’s dual mandate is breaking down. Inflation’s near target. Jobs are slipping. Tariffs are …
The Fed is about to cut rates while everything else hits all-time highs. Stocks, homes, rents, bitcoin, gold, household wealth — all at records. Unemployment sits at 4.2%. Inflation stays high. J.P. Morgan expects four rate cuts to bring the policy rate to 3.5%. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-08-08/j-p-morgan-sees-fed-cutting-rates-at-each-of-its-next-four-meetings But Americans are struggling. Fast food sales dropped hard last …
“83% of S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates in Q2 2025” https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight But the real driver? A 15% USD slide from 109 to 96. That FX tailwind inflated overseas earnings, padded margins, and made weak quarters look strong. Consensus EPS jumped from $62.49 to $65.67, a 5.1% gain https://roancp.com/sp-500-q2-2025-earnings-report-performance-and-expectations/ Strip out the currency boost, and …
What you’re not told about these Americans crying due to their student loans She paid $36,000 over 2 years. Her loan payoff is over $90,000 after all these payments, which is more than what she borrowed They’re paying their loans but can NEVER escape “Like, what the f*ck am I supposed to do? I’m gonna …
May’s jobs gain was revised down by 125,000, from 144,000 to 19,000. June’s jobs gain was revised down by 133,000, from 147,000 to 14,000. Together, that cuts 258,000 jobs from official data in two months. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm July added 73,000 jobs, below expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Markets now see a 95% …
Stock futures opened sharply lower. Dow futures shed about 0.8%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1%. Earnings weakness added pressure, but Trump’s tariff shock dominated headlines. “The average tariff rate roughly on reciprocal is going from about 2.5% to 15%,” said Vasu Menon, managing director at OCBC. https://www.reuters.com/business/view-investors-react-trumps-new-reciprocal-tariffs-announcement-2025-08-01/ President Trump’s …
Housing is more broken than most admit. Cutting rates won’t fix it. Prices remain too high and wages too low to afford a home. Inventory shortages in key regions make matters worse. First-time buyers are pushing 40 years old on average. That shows how the market locks out younger generations. Albert Edwards, known for predicting …
Trump released a statement slamming Jerome Powell after the Fed held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time. The former president called Powell “too late, too angry, too stup*d, and too political.” No further context. Just that. Markets barely reacted. Bond yields stayed elevated. The Fed’s statement cited “uncertain conditions” and stuck to the “higher …
