Rater hike estimates are falling fast as inflationary pressures ease.
Rater hike estimates are falling fast as inflationary pressures ease. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/TOoAoQzwej — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) July 6, 2026
Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Rater hike estimates are falling fast as inflationary pressures ease. via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/TOoAoQzwej — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) July 6, 2026
Hours after USA Today published an interview between one of its journalists and Cuban President Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the communist-run island experienced an island-wide power grid collapse. The electrical workers’ union said the entire power grid went offline and that officials were investigating the cause. Cuba’s energy ministry confirmed the blackout and …
Housing was already becoming impossible for many Americans. Then demand kept rising. A Federal Reserve related analysis looked at the housing surge from early 2021 to early 2024 and estimated that increased immigration contributed to a significant share of rising housing costs in many metro areas. WOAH 🚨 Real report released from the Federal Reserve …
ISM manufacturing prices paid index spiked to 84.6 points in April, a 4-year high. Over the last 3 months, prices paid have SKYROCKETED over 20 points, marking one of the biggest spikes in history. Meanwhile, the employment index dropped to 46.4 points, the lowest level in 2026. Employment has now been contracting for 15 months …
Treasury Secretary warns Hormuz blockade threatens global food security… US Presidency of G20 pivots to “well-functioning” fertilizer supply chains… Move aims to isolate Iran as “enemy of the global south” over trade disruptions… Diplomatic cables: US seeks to prevent a “starvation winter” in emerging markets… https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0464 Chair’s Statement of the United States G20 Presidency April …
NEW: The International Energy Agency chief is sounding the alarm that Europe is running out of fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade: "We have maybe 6 weeks or so of jet fuel left… I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from City A to City …
Saudi Fund to Back Away From LIV Golf Under Mounting Financial Pressures The Saudi league, established in 2022, attracted some of the sport’s biggest stars with huge contracts. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is on the verge of announcing it will withdraw financial support from LIV Golf, the upstart golf circuit it launched four years …
10-year Treasury yields hit 4.4% for the first time since July 2025. But war, exploding debt and soaring inflation will drive yields much higher. Without big rate cuts and massive QE (a mistake), stocks and real estate will crash, resulting in a financial crisis worse than 2008. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 20, 2026 🚨 …
Hundreds of Valero layoffs begin in California as company idles major refinery #MacroEdge — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) January 15, 2026 Are California’s regulations killing energy jobs faster than companies can adapt? Valero is idling its Benicia refinery due to high operational costs, strict California regulations, and ongoing environmental violations, including a recent $82M fine and lawsuit …
They finally figured out that they both have so much trouble at home, that neither can afford a trade/cold/hot war…. Why the sudden reversal on the trade war? Something doesn’t smell right. Weekend futures keep dropping. Tonight’s open will be interesting https://t.co/Ml9p0K76r1 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 2, 2025 Q: Do you agree that the …
Paramount Skydance is about to put Bari Weiss in charge of CBS News. This is not a small shuffle. Weiss has built a career on provocation and taking sides. She will report directly to Paramount CEO David Ellison, bypassing CBS leadership. That means she will have almost total control over what millions of Americans see …
So I’m supposed to believe the Fed is about to cut rates when credit spreads are sitting at multi-month tights? Cutting here = loosening financial conditions just as inflation pressures re-accelerate. That’s a policy mistake in the making and likely the only cut of 2025. The… pic.twitter.com/ubZOJscXpe — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) August 21, …
Trump just tore into Chuck Grassley not over policy, but over perceived weakness. On Truth Social, he mocked the Iowa senator for clinging to the Senate’s blue slip tradition, a rule that lets home-state senators block federal judge nominees. Trump posted, “Can someone please explain to this guy that the ‘Blue Slip’ is killing us?”truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114938820270436889 …
Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov, has made a stunning claim. According to him, the U.S. government pressures tech engineers to install backdoors in software—without informing their employers. This revelation, shared in an interview, has ignited concerns about privacy, surveillance, and the unseen forces shaping digital security. Durov explained that when he visited the U.S., cybersecurity agents …
My take is that 30yr mortgage is in a pause before heading higher. — Alistair (@kiwiangloameric) December 21, 2024 BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024 $500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024 Extremely …
Today's hotter-than-expected #inflation data, following similar news yesterday, is putting more downward pressure on #gold. But gold will soar when investors realize the Fed will keep cutting rates despite inflation, and return to QE, sending both inflation and gold much higher. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 13, 2024 Agricultural commodities have surged nearly 30% year-over-year, …
No major economy in the world today is pursuing such an aggressively expansionary fiscal policy while shouldering an unsustainable cost of debt service. pic.twitter.com/J7QOca997s — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 9, 2024 This trajectory, in our view, is untenable and will inevitably lead to policies of interest rate suppression and constrained government spending—signaling a pivotal …
Global investment bank UBS published a report Monday highlighting the enduring value of gold as a hedge, despite a recent pivot among speculators toward equities following the U.S. presidential election. While the market appears optimistic, UBS cautions that policy uncertainty under the new administration remains high. Noting that a downtrend in the U.S. dollar and …
Sell house now or hold and wait to see if market improves We bought our house 2 years ago and our monthly payment was 4,500 (3,600 mortgage 900 escrow) a year later our monthly payment is 5,200 (3,600 mortgage 1,600 escrow). We had no idea we would see that kind of increase so quickly. We …
Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, has indeed warned that the global economy is facing pressures reminiscent of the 1920s. She highlighted several factors contributing to this situation, including the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological advancements reshaping industries. These pressures are similar to those experienced in …
Three years ago, Eric Adams, then a rising Democratic star, would have been the main attraction at an event like this: a politically star-studded Democratic fund-raiser at the famed Junior’s Restaurant in Brooklyn, the borough where Mr. Adams made his mark in politics. But with his administration appearing to be in free fall, his stature …
The financial landscape is in turmoil: credit card interest rates have surged to an unprecedented 21.47%, while credit card debt has crossed the $1 trillion mark. Personal interest payments have climbed to over $500 billion, signaling a looming consumer crisis. With excess savings depleted, the consumer’s financial health is more vulnerable than ever. Inflation remains …
Copper prices surge to an unprecedented high of $5.08 per pound, marking a staggering 30% increase year-to-date and fueling concerns of rampant inflation. This new record surpasses the previous peak observed in March 2022, coinciding with the fastest inflation rate in 40 years. Over the past three months alone, copper prices have skyrocketed by 35%, …
This is not looking good at all … Core PPI, which excludes energy costs, spiked by 6.1% annualized in April from March, seasonally adjusted, the biggest increase since July, also driven by the spike in services and made worse by the downward revision of the prior month.… pic.twitter.com/R8q0D3BNAr — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) May 14, …
The US faces a fiscal dilemma as record spending, deficits, and debt levels clash with inflationary green energy policies, potentially sparking a conflict between the Federal Reserve and government. Key points: Record non-crisis spending, deficits, and debt levels pose fiscal challenges with no end in sight. Green energy policies, like those in Germany, have led …
Despite a seemingly positive uptick in retail sales, recent data unveils a troubling reality: inflation’s pervasive impact on essential goods like food and energy. While headline figures may suggest economic resilience, deeper analysis reveals concerning trends, with nondiscretionary goods experiencing significant month-over-month price increases. The disparity between sectors, with gas stations and groceries recording notable …
Market turbulence ensues as S&P 500 futures plummet nearly 100 points within minutes following March CPI inflation data. Rising inflation for the second consecutive month sparks concerns and fuels speculation about potential rate cuts. BREAKING: S&P 500 futures are now down nearly 100 points in less than 10 minutes after March CPI inflation. The 3.5% …
This is deeply concerning! New York Community Bank’s 40% stock drop, dividend cut, and unexpected loss signal potential trouble. Small banks remain vulnerable, especially with the looming Fed’s emergency loan program expiration. Many of these small banks hold tons of exposure to commercial real estate loans. 70% of all CRE loans in the US are …
More disturbing news from #Germany. German #Construction #PMI cratered to 36.2 in November, approaching #COVID lows. https://t.co/rwnjssSGh5 pic.twitter.com/Xr82qi8J7y — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) December 6, 2023 🇩🇪 The HCOB Germany Construction PMI 36.2 Lowest since April 2020!Excluding pandemic, lowest ever! Chart: https://t.co/ow763W0Jf1 #recession pic.twitter.com/8p3Nvnt1e9 — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) December 6, 2023