Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
AI stocks have carried the market in a way that is hard to ignore. Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, they have driven roughly 75 percent of S&P 500 returns, 80 percent of earnings growth, and 90 percent of capital spending growth. That is enormous. It means almost all of the excitement, profit, and investment …
https://twitter.com/SoccerMomTrades/status/1939835719872106645
The surface numbers are holding. The real prices are not. In Q1 2025, the median list price for a newly built home in the United States was $448,393. That is down just 0.3% from the same time last year. On paper, the market looks flat. But the paper is lying. Builders are pulling every lever …
Kinda puts this into a different perspective now huh? Same thing with me talking about $UNF and $MAN. All kind of adds up. pic.twitter.com/PJuiYoEVOt — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) June 18, 2025 This chart is a clear warning shot to those still clinging to the idea of a “soft landing.” Every time the modeled Fed Funds …
🎈Saylor defends accusations that $MSTR is a Ponzi by comparing it to a REIT…this is the conman answer. Here’s why they’re not at all the same -> 1. REITs are operating cash flow positive from rental income, generating enough to cover interest & dividend payments. $MSTR is cash… pic.twitter.com/ZakvRDo7cs — Rho Rider (@RhoRider) June 4, …
Just like 2000, Saylor doesn't have a plan to strategically deploy capital. As soon as he gets money he blows it, regardless of price. This erratic, cocaine addict behavior is the reason he destroyed MicroStrategy 25 years ago. https://t.co/uLGVOgw2fv — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) April 8, 2025 Why MICROSTRATEGY is definitely a PONZI explained: We all have …
It looks like a bull flag has formed in CDX HY spread. If that's the case, the real fun is about to start. pic.twitter.com/RuFD8oObMP — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) March 26, 2025 So far, the “buy the dip” behavior from retail is very similar to Q1 2022. The $SPX didn’t bottom until Q4 2022. $SPY …
pic.twitter.com/BmgN8RzSM3 — Jack Krzewinski (@JackKrzewinski) January 2, 2025 "The relentless surge of the U.S. dollar is primed to cut a swath of carnage through Asia’s asset markets, leaving economic strain in its wake. The dollar wrecking ball similar wreaked havoc with Latam currencies in the 1980s… Historically, when the dollar flexes its muscle,… pic.twitter.com/y9Sc5afXM0 — …
In 2021 there were three spikes in Nasdaq Hindenburg Omens. The first two were followed by corrections -10%. The third one in November 2021 was followed by bear market. We see the same pattern in 2024. Two corrections (April, July) and a third spike in November: A Hindenburg… pic.twitter.com/VSngerA3Hl — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 13, 2024 …
2/7The FT continues: "Beijing has long fought against the “Japanification” of its economy, and has made huge investments in its high-tech, green and electric vehicle sectors with the goal of boosting long-term growth." What isn't said is that this was also Japan's strategy. — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) November 29, 2024 4/7At the time Japan dominated …
This market is close to breaking point. There is now so much leverage that futures-implied equity financing costs are at the same spread to SOFR as during the height of the GFC. And Japan is about to suck a couple hundred billion of levered balance sheet out of US money markets. And this is not …
The 1987 crash was largely influenced by the Fed’s rate hikes amid inflation concerns. It does feel like we’re seeing similar warning signs, rising inflation, interest rate hikes, and market volatility, though predicting an exact repeat is tricky. 1987 vs 2024 ✍️ Dow Jones: Let's analyze the lead-up to the 1987 crash vs. now. 12-month …
2/ In Nov 1928, Herbert Hoover won the US presidential election Amid one of the strongest stock market rallies ever seen The euphoria carried on for a few months post-election But eventually gave way to Black Tuesday and the Great Depression Leading to nearly a decade of… pic.twitter.com/INJJ0m5pcB — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 26, 2024 …
Oil has experienced a downtrend in Q3 2024, influenced by several factors: geopolitical tensions, EIA forecasts, OPEC+ production cuts, and slow growth in China. This pattern mirrors Q1 2023, where oil company profits subsequently declined. 2023 Q1 Chart 2024 Q3 Chart Here is a comparison of some oil companies earnings : 2023 2024 Disclaimer …
Statistical manipulations are at the heart of the Bidenomics success story, according to Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.us – but does that really matter? How would the economic landscape change during a second Trump presidency? From Brandon Smith There is a popular school of thought that believes most economic stability is purely psychological; that the health of …
HOLY SHIT… According to the Financial Times, back in April of 2023, Chinese President Xi told EU President Ursula Von Der Leyen, that the US tried to bait China into attacking Taiwan. Frankly, I believe Xi. This is the same playbook the US used for Ukraine. The Casus Belli. The US put military forces all …
Foreign investment into China dropped for a 4th consecutive month in April. Inbound investements into China are as low as during the onset of the Covid crisis as the country struggle to attract foreign funds. pic.twitter.com/k8Zvr8NPW5 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 27, 2024 China’s big housing rescue aims to build on smaller efforts that …
Back then, technology companies were the sole sector propping up the market from mid-1999 to March 2000. Today’s scenario bears a striking resemblance to those times. It’s remarkable how today’s lack of leadership in the stock market echoes the period preceding the tech bust. As shown in the chart below, technology companies were the only …
The recent “blockbuster” jobs report masks some concerning realities: nearly half of the new jobs are part-time or double-counted, and approximately 5 million Americans remain out of the job market, potentially pushing the real unemployment rate close to 7%. Turns out that “blockbuster” jobs report was hiding a lot. Almost half of new jobs are …