Market climbs as implied ERP for S&P 500 hits 4.23%, lowest since 2008. S&P 500 pricey based on 19/20 metrics.

The paper is verbose (155 pages) and not riveting reading, but it does include everything I know about equity risk premiums and their estimation. My first update was written in 2009, during the financial crisis, and I have updated it annually since. https://t.co/wZcZy5Az5C pic.twitter.com/dFUA7sbVNr — Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) March 30, …

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Embrace the unpredictability and chaos of the foreign exchange market

FX market says we're really close, real close…Just follow the dollar down that rabbit hole Mr CNH and Misty Yen gonna show us the wayRemember…The hurrier I go, the behinder I get…Stay SlowStay amongst the mad peopleWe're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad. Stay MAD… https://t.co/HIDwBTz9GH pic.twitter.com/n2apDt5OB6 — Hugh …

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Potential reversal in RRP market poses challenges despite Fed interventions.

The Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) market primarily affects US Treasury securities but can also influence other short-term interest rates and financial markets. Inching toward RRP reversal. Watch out! Fed counter-injections did wonders in the past year, but face a major roadblock in the quarter ahead. pic.twitter.com/eYAxPuZuys — Steve Donzé (@steve_donze) …

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New Home Prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008

New Home Prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008. 🔥🔥🔥 Source Re:Venture Consulting pic.twitter.com/ZCSU0jgxVA — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 27, 2024 So far, the demand signals have only continued to decline Mortgage apps were down YoY …

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The job market is falling off a cliff.

The job market is falling off a cliff.Most my friends that got laid off can’t apply for unemployment until severance runs out. Biden admin mandated 2 months WARN nationwide. There is a lag in the employment data no one (except DDB at QI) talks about!!!! Recession is here folks — …

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Buffett warns of market resembling a casino; 0DTE options, NFTs soar post-Covid. Speculation frenzy evident. Why the gambling mentality?

Warren Buffett echoed Charlie Munger’s criticism in his annual letter, that the stock market has become increasingly “casino-like.” Buffett believes too many investors act as speculators rather than long-term investors focused on company fundamentals. The ease of online trading apps has made buying and selling stocks more akin to gambling, in Buffett’s view. He warned young investors … …

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Debt-service ratio drops, risks rise. Morgan Stanley warns of stock market rally ending; options markets remain optimistic, potentially overlooking risks.

The debt-service coverage ratio, a measure of financial health, has dropped significantly over the past year, indicating increased risk among leveraged loan companies. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer warns that if corporate profits disappoint, the stock market rally could end. Options markets show extreme optimism, suggesting investors may be overlooking …

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$27 Trillion Treasury market is only getting bigger.

The world’s largest, most-important financial market is growing by leaps and bounds. On Wall Street, that is making people nervous. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasurys has exploded, nearly doubling since the pandemic began. The government sold a record $23 trillion worth in 2023. And few think the spree is going …

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This is why the stock market and commodities are relentlessly going higher:

We have witnessed 55 global central bank cuts over the past 6 months. pic.twitter.com/OMmmknu96m — Piker Capital (@PikerCapital) March 25, 2024 https://twitter.com/TorbjornIwarson/status/1772043184283017567 After all looks like gold is going to test sub $2,145 level before turning back up higher. As gold continues to through out shenanigans, miners continues to get …

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Corporate bond market exceeds $10T; primary dealer inventory at $33B signals illiquidity. Rising defaults echo 2008.

Corporate bonds outstanding >$10T. Primary dealer inventory $33B -not a liquid market. When credit markets quiet & calm, it gives impression liquidity's fine, but if many want to sell, liquidity disappears. Even in quiet markets, finding a bond can take several days @apolloglobal pic.twitter.com/6tx1U6jNH6 — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March …

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The surge in USD/CHN, the crash of China EFund’s ETF, the largest outflow from US stocks, and the surge in the USD signal market turmoil.

Recent market movements have set off alarm bells across the financial landscape, prompting investors to scrutinize the underlying causes behind the sudden upheaval. One notable indicator of trouble brewing is the surge in the USD/CHN pair, surpassing the critical 7.25 mark, while the Chinese yuan faces significant downward pressure. This …

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UnitedHealth, CVS, and Cigna leveraging market power and political influence to push independent pharmacies out.

UnitedHealth, CVS, and Cigna are using their market share and pull in Washington to drive one of the key levers to manage health care costs—independent pharmacies—out of business. @matthewccook5 has more.https://t.co/jEADS2xOLI — David Dayen (@ddayen) March 21, 2024 Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) are the shadowy middlemen who decide what drugs …

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Big Tech, Fake Market, Bank Failures

Look at this map: https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec That tells you that almost the entire markets valuation is based off a few big tech companies. A lot of bankruptcies being filed for small and mid size businesses. I’ve been watching them being filled at an alarming rate via the court dockets. Evictions, crime, and …

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