Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Earlier this month, a Beijing-based franchise of a well-known gold brand was sued for fraud in a scheme that had allegedly cheated more than 70 investors out of over 60kg (132 pounds) of gold, the National Business Daily reported late last month. The case is ongoing. Some victims claimed they had invested in gold bars …
The paper is verbose (155 pages) and not riveting reading, but it does include everything I know about equity risk premiums and their estimation. My first update was written in 2009, during the financial crisis, and I have updated it annually since. https://t.co/wZcZy5Az5C pic.twitter.com/dFUA7sbVNr — Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) March 30, 2024 The standard approach to …
Now it’s official. Gold just had a quarterly close at record levels, likely marking the beginning of a secular bull market. This is indeed one of the most exciting times to be a precious metals and commodity investor that I can recall. Game on. pic.twitter.com/Cbr5V0TUgj — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 29, 2024 Japan has …
Publisher DROPS Biden Book Due To Lack Of Market Interest We all know Biden is having a book published about him. It was a central component of his mishandled documents case, where he was deemed too feeble to be tried. But according to a recent report, “was having a book published” may be a more …
Stock valuations mirror the extremes of 1929 and the market is at risk of a steep crash, investor John Hussman has said per BI. "Investors are presently enjoying the double-top of the most extreme speculative bubble in US financial history," Hussman wrote. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 28, 2024 Stocks look like they’re in the most …
FX market says we're really close, real close…Just follow the dollar down that rabbit hole Mr CNH and Misty Yen gonna show us the wayRemember…The hurrier I go, the behinder I get…Stay SlowStay amongst the mad peopleWe're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad. Stay MAD… https://t.co/HIDwBTz9GH pic.twitter.com/n2apDt5OB6 — Hugh Hendry Acid Capitalist TV (@hendry_hugh) …
The Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) market primarily affects US Treasury securities but can also influence other short-term interest rates and financial markets. Inching toward RRP reversal. Watch out! Fed counter-injections did wonders in the past year, but face a major roadblock in the quarter ahead. pic.twitter.com/eYAxPuZuys — Steve Donzé (@steve_donze) March 29, 2024 NYC Bancorp …
New Home Prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008. 🔥🔥🔥 Source Re:Venture Consulting pic.twitter.com/ZCSU0jgxVA — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 27, 2024 So far, the demand signals have only continued to decline Mortgage apps were down YoY throughout all of 2023 and …
The job market is falling off a cliff.Most my friends that got laid off can’t apply for unemployment until severance runs out. Biden admin mandated 2 months WARN nationwide. There is a lag in the employment data no one (except DDB at QI) talks about!!!! Recession is here folks — Richard Nixon (@TheGoldWindow) March 27, …
Warren Buffett echoed Charlie Munger’s criticism in his annual letter, that the stock market has become increasingly “casino-like.” Buffett believes too many investors act as speculators rather than long-term investors focused on company fundamentals. The ease of online trading apps has made buying and selling stocks more akin to gambling, in Buffett’s view. He warned young investors … https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/warren-buffett-joins-charlie-munger-s-criticism-in-annual-letter-criticizing-the-stock-market-as-becoming-casino-like/vi-BB1j0fsf Financial Nihilism Making sense …
🚨🚨SWIFT planning launch of new central bank digital currency platform in 12-24 months Global bank messaging network SWIFT is planning a new platform in the next one to two years to connect the wave of central bank digital currencies now in development to the existing finance… — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) March 27, 2024
The weight of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 is ~33%, the largest ever (yellow line). The market cap of the largest stocks relative to the 75th percentile is more than 700x and also at records which are only comparable to the early 1930s' Source: Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/oUe3pe9tMH — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) March …
Chart showing historical reaction after the last Fed hike: 1) No recession = prolonged S&P 500 rally of more than 20% in 6 months on average2) Recession = short-term rally and then a drop of more than 20% in 6 months on averagehttps://t.co/pDI4e1UgAG pic.twitter.com/A7AfFBiKmE — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) March 25, 2024 'Peter Thiel, Jeff …
The debt-service coverage ratio, a measure of financial health, has dropped significantly over the past year, indicating increased risk among leveraged loan companies. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Investment Officer warns that if corporate profits disappoint, the stock market rally could end. Options markets show extreme optimism, suggesting investors may be overlooking potential risks. Something about swimming …
The world’s largest, most-important financial market is growing by leaps and bounds. On Wall Street, that is making people nervous. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasurys has exploded, nearly doubling since the pandemic began. The government sold a record $23 trillion worth in 2023. And few think the spree is going to slow soon, given the …
We have witnessed 55 global central bank cuts over the past 6 months. pic.twitter.com/OMmmknu96m — Piker Capital (@PikerCapital) March 25, 2024 https://twitter.com/TorbjornIwarson/status/1772043184283017567 After all looks like gold is going to test sub $2,145 level before turning back up higher. As gold continues to through out shenanigans, miners continues to get more and more confused. But …
2) Of course – prices are still high compared to pre-pandemic levels. With another 18% drop in builder sale prices needed to match the 2019 value level of $336,000 for a new house. Will we eventually get there? pic.twitter.com/xzUvh2Y7dk — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 25, 2024 5) As you can see, these tactics of reducing …
Corporate bonds outstanding >$10T. Primary dealer inventory $33B -not a liquid market. When credit markets quiet & calm, it gives impression liquidity's fine, but if many want to sell, liquidity disappears. Even in quiet markets, finding a bond can take several days @apolloglobal pic.twitter.com/6tx1U6jNH6 — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 24, 2024 Up and to …
Exciting news is brewing in the financial world, particularly for India’s stock market. With a staggering 78% of equity options traded worldwide last year occurring in India, the stage is set for a potential explosion in the Indian stock market. This surge could mark a significant shift in the global investment landscape and present lucrative …
Recent market movements have set off alarm bells across the financial landscape, prompting investors to scrutinize the underlying causes behind the sudden upheaval. One notable indicator of trouble brewing is the surge in the USD/CHN pair, surpassing the critical 7.25 mark, while the Chinese yuan faces significant downward pressure. This abrupt shift in currency dynamics …
UnitedHealth, CVS, and Cigna are using their market share and pull in Washington to drive one of the key levers to manage health care costs—independent pharmacies—out of business. @matthewccook5 has more.https://t.co/jEADS2xOLI — David Dayen (@ddayen) March 21, 2024 Pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) are the shadowy middlemen who decide what drugs you can buy, where you …
Personal credit card debt hits $1 trillion; student loan repayments resume; rent and wages stagnate; emergency funds lacking. Ye, its bad! This is gonna have to stop at some point and that’s when the fun begins. Wages haven’t kept up with inflation for like the last half century. Four months ago Delinquencies rise on mortgages, …
A serious danger is looming in the financial scene, and it’s poised to create chaos in the markets. According to a serious warning from one of the world’s largest banks, a massive sell-off of tech stocks is on the brink, and the resulting disruption could ripple through the financial world in just three days. At …
The parabolic surge in Nvidia shares began when the group stunned Wall Street with a revenue forecast that exceeded analysts’ forecasts by as much as 75%. But it is now starting to show cracks in its exterior. Nvidia shares are the third-most-shorted stock on the market, according to recent data from S3 Partners, with some …
Look at this map: https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec That tells you that almost the entire markets valuation is based off a few big tech companies. A lot of bankruptcies being filed for small and mid size businesses. I’ve been watching them being filled at an alarming rate via the court dockets. Evictions, crime, and state failures are happening/rising fast. …
The Federal Reserve has significantly reduced its balance sheet. Some analysts predict a market downturn due to the decrease in liquidity, which has been exacerbated by 11 interest rate hikes that typically take 18 months for the market to digest. h/t theSilverVigilante
Arizona’s attorney general claims owners of apartment complexes in Phoenix have colluded with a software company to inflate rental prices.
A recent study by Georgia State University researchers found that three corporations own more than 19,000 homes in Atlanta’s five metro counties.
In the last year, the U.S. bid farewell to a staggering 284,000 full-time jobs, only to welcome an army of 921,000 part-time positions. The rhythm of the job market seems to be changing, and not everyone might be dancing to the same tune. February witnessed a record-breaking surge of 1.2 million foreign-born jobs. Is this …
Economists and analysts have raised concerns about the current state of financial markets. Just a month ago, experts started noticing similarities between today’s market and the periods before the dot-com crash in 2000 and the economic downturn in 2008. They pointed out that the stock market was soaring to new highs, much like it did …