Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The Treasury just declared the US insolvent. The media missed it The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in …
https://twitter.com/SilvioVassalli/status/1976274291399541058 Oops! 👇🏼 https://t.co/jvblybqt9n pic.twitter.com/1i3dLKnzQB — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) October 9, 2025 “The Debtors estimate that they have between $10 billion and $50 billion in liabilities.” — Chapter 11 Voluntary Petition, Southern District of Texas Bankruptcy Court https://restructuring.ra.kroll.com/firstbrands/Home-Index “While the official filing lists liabilities between $10 billion and $50 billion, several creditors now fear …
by MonetaryCommentary This particular offshore dollar liquidity gauge, calculated as the ratio of total liabilities of foreign-related institutions in the U.S. to U.S. deposits at foreign banks, remains mired in a secular upswing, suggesting that foreign banks are still boosting their dollar liabilities in U.S. markets at a faster pace than U.S. residents are placing dollars …
by confoundedinterest17 Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We did get fooled again! The problem with the national debt can’t be fixed with Mitch McConnell still in the Senate and too many Obama-era political hacks still in Washington DC. The Obama/Biden era began in 2009 and it still exists despite Trump winning …
by confoundedinterest17 I just watched Dennis Quaid in “Reagan”. Excellent film. But it reminded me of how Reagan sank the Soviet Union: by outspending the Soviet Union on the arms race. It worked! The Soviet Union, hamstrung by grossly inefficent central planning, couldn’t keep up and collapsed under President George H.W.Bush. Fast forward to today. …
by confoundedinterest17 Tennessee Ernie Ford sang it best. $36 tons of debt. Another day older and deeper in debt. Notice virually no political candidate will acknowledge or discuss. The federal government spent $1.8 trillion more than it collected in tax revenue in fiscal year 2024, according to figures released Friday by U.S. Treasury Department. Congress has run …
Calls to Embrace Reform But many economists and financial experts say that public policymakers need to embrace reform. “What we need is not just a smart Social Security fix, but we need to have a radical reform of our fiscal system,” Kotlikoff said. “It’s not doodling around the current system.” Indeed, he has proposed several …
by confoundedinterest17 Hey Big Spender! (Federal Government). The US government now pays out on average $3bn in interest expenses per day…If the Fed cuts interest rates by 1%-point and the entire yield curve declines by 1%-point, then daily interest expenses will decline from $3bn per day to $2.5bn per day. Even worse, unfunded Federal liabilities total …
by confoundedinterest17 Too much debt? Kamala Harris doesn’t think so. She is proposing economic policies costing $1. 7 trillion without sufficicent offsets. Harris is putting the US on the path to default, following numerous other badly managed nations, like Ukraine and Greece. And much of Latin America. The US is already at $35+ trillion with unfunded liabilties totalling …
by confoundedinterest17 This scene from the film “McCabe and Mrs. Miller” sums up our political plight quite nicley. Politicians spend like crazy to stay in power (Biden/Harris) are excellent examples). Politicians promises endless money, then shoot the economy. The US is broke and relies on printing money and boowed funds to stay afloat. Harris wants to …
by confoundedinterest17 Too much debt should be the theme song for the US! Both for consumers and the Feral government (not a typo!) Consumer credit increased by +$6.403 billion in April, much softer than consensus estimate of +$10 billion … more notable, however, was March data, given initial read of +$6.274 billion was revised down to …
"Victory on inflation" Core PCE accelerates as government continues to print currency. pic.twitter.com/hxtOp0XAYl — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 28, 2024 The acceleration of Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) coupled with ongoing currency printing paints a grim economic picture. As the government increases its monetary supply, inflationary pressures intensify, impacting everyday consumers and eroding purchasing power. …
by confoundedinterest17 Paul Krugman and others are cheering the defeat of inflation (odd since it is on the rise again). But how does our Federal government “grow” the economy and inflation? Borrow and spend, baby! The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released Q4’s GDP update. The good news? US GDP grew by $334 billion. The …
by confoundedinterest17 The great Will Rogers once said he never met a man he didn’t like. US President Joe Biden and Democrats have never met a spending opportunity they didn’t like (except for US border security, of course). Under “Deficit Joe” Biden, Federal budget deficits have soared! And deficits are projected to grow! Over the …
Evergrande shares halted after Hong Kong court orders liquidation.https://t.co/M8UqNlTsY9 — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 29, 2024 🚨🇨🇳 China – Property Developer Evergrande ordered to liquidate Global Financial Collapse incoming…. pic.twitter.com/gPlil4uqt9 — Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) January 29, 2024 Once the world’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande is now to be liquidated. It has whopping $300 billion …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, the US is engulfed in a fiscal inferno! US government debt is now bigger than the US economy. This was unseen until 2012 when debt surpassed GDP for the first time. In addition to almost $34 trillion in debt from our crazy spending, out-of-control government, we are on the hook for almost $213 TRILLION …
by confoundedinterest17 It‘s Biden’s Fiscal Inferno! Insane open borders, insane green spending, wars in Ukraine, Gaza and growing restlessness around Taiwan. Inflation. And a demented 81-year old President in charge. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is drowing in debt, going down, down, down. US Federal debt just hit $33.71 TRILLION. And unfunded liabilities (promises from Uncle Spam) are now $211 TRILLION. That is 526% of the the current debt load. Which means either lots of additional debt, higher tax rates or cuts in entitlements. The cost …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden is the Buzz Lightyear of the economy … and not in a good way. Under Biden and the Congressional spending sprees, the US debt is going to infinity … and beyond! Twenty days. That’s how long it took the Biden administration to add another half-trillion dollars to the national debt. Bidenomics …
by confoundedinterest17 Well, it looks like Ukraine’s army is surrending in droves to Russian forces. Maybe this will end Biden’s obsession with doling billions of dollars to Ukraine. Nah, Biden will continue doling out billions to Ukraine, but this time it will be to rebuild Ukraine (while major US cities continue to rot). But in …
by Dismal-Jellyfish This table shows the aggregate assets and liabilities of hedge funds that file Form PF with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unlike table B.101.f in the regular Financial Accounts publication, which reports assets and liabilities of domestic hedge funds only, this table presents data on all hedge funds that file Form PF, both domestic and …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics is a train wreck. But unlike E. Palestine Ohio, the site of a train derailment and massive toxic spill (for which Biden has yet to visit), Bidenomics is a continuing train wreck. The first chart is the record decline in US net cash farm income. Now in negative growth! Second, US office …
by confoundedinterest17 Hellzapoppin under Bidenomics! And it isn’t a musical, but a tragedy. Between The Federal Reserve’s outrageous overreaction to Covid (printing like there was no tomorrow), and Biden’s massive spending spree (lots of moldy (green) spending, we have see horrid inflation. And The Fed trying (sort of) to combat inflation, we see that 30-year CONFORMING …
by Dismal-Jellyfish If half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, the losses due to CRE distress would result in up to 58 smaller regional banks becoming insolvent in addition to 186 banks that would become insolvent just due to higher rates. Wut Mean?: The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is about $2.2 trillion …
by confoundedinterest17 How badly has Bidenomics and generally Federal spending has crippled the US? An example. The interest on US Federal debt is approaching $1 TRILLION (and Biden/Democrats REFUSE to cut any spending, not that Republicans are much better). To show up how messed up this is, the EU’s defense budget (remember Ukraine?) is far …
by confoundedinterest17 Shot through the heart (of the economy), and they’re to blame. The Fed and Congress give government a bad name. When I see the faces of Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, all I think of is …. the Minsky Moment brigade! From Zero debt in 1776 to $21 trillion in …
by confoundedinterest17 Its the 4th of July, American Independence Day from England, but under Biden and The Federal Reserve, Americans are DEPENDENT on debt and Federal spending. In other words, Americans are addicted to gov. First, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index is up 150% under Biden. You can see the rapid rise in mortgage rates started …
by confoundedinterest17 Money makes DC go around. Particularly when there are no effective constraints on the Administration or Congress’s ravenous appetite for insane spending (like Biden bragging about the US funding a large solar energy in Angola while he leaves the southern border wide open). After all, Biden, Schumer and McConnell all believe our money (along …
by squishsplash Every 8 seconds a child is born. Every 8 seconds the us unfunded liabilities (debt) increases by $2,400,000. Every baby in the us is born with an additional 2.4 million in US debt. Those born in the US not only will each have to cover the 2.4 million in new debt but also …
