Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Inventory jumped 23.4% from a year ago to 1.32 million units at the end of June, coming off record lows but still just a 4.1-month supply. A 6-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller. These inventory levels are the highest supply since May 2020, boosted by homes sitting on the market longer. Even …
The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is indeed approaching levels seen during World War II. The highest debt-to-GDP ratio in U.S. history was around 120% at the end of World War II. As of recent data, the debt-to-GDP ratio for the U.S. is approximately 115.7%, which is very close to that historical peak.
The Fed could slash rates by 200 points over 8 straight meetings as the economy heads for a sharper downtrend, Citi, $C, has said. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 15, 2024 FED'S GOOLSBEE: INTEREST-RATE CUTS ARE SOON WARRANTED – WSJ. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) July 15, 2024 NY Fed: manufacturing remains in contraction yet again for July …
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday that a weakening labor market is just as much a risk to the economy as high inflation. Why it matters: In recent months, Fed officials have said they want to see more economic data that confirms inflation is receding before lowering interest rates. But Powell acknowledges that waiting too long to …
We are in the vicinity of peak crack high. pic.twitter.com/UyHtIKtAIa — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 8, 2024 Millennials and Gen Z are ~90% invested in stocks in their 401ks pic.twitter.com/bndxRPm7Eg — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 7, 2024 https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1809947687145406812 When adjusted for gold, US equity market’s overvaluation echoes the 1929 peak. Before you criticize …
Russia Regains “High Income” status Despite Western Sanctions The World Bank says Russia is a High-Income country once again. This comes despite thousands of sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia since 2014. Moscow has decided to look to the Global South for its economic needs, and this strategy seems to have borne fruit. Between …
In the second quarter of this year, the office sector set a record vacancy rate at 20.1%, breaking the 20% barrier for the first time in history. This trend reflects the lasting impact of the pandemic on work habits, as remote work and other shifts persist beyond the initial wave of COVID-19. The slow decline in demand …
Travelers heading out for the July 4 holiday can expect plenty of company this year. Nearly 71 million people will be on the move over July 4th week, according to AAA — a new record that exceeds pre-pandemic totals. “With summer vacations in full swing and the flexibility of remote work, more Americans are taking …
In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray … hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024 Continuing claims a new cycle high Approaching 1.9mm #MacroEdge https://t.co/sDxirI4NOC pic.twitter.com/Rod0M3P2mT — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 3, 2024 Nice little pop in job openings in …
This week brings us gold price forecasts you could call outrageous, ranging from $3,000 to $40,000 per ounce. Outrageous, that is, until we remember that there’s no actual limit on gold’s price… By Peter Reagan, for Birch Gold Group | Reading time: 8 minutes Key Takeaways Gold prices could realistically reach $7,000 to $40,000, according to experts …
French Bond Yield Premium soars to highest level in 7 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/8ZmLy0ZPz1 — Barchart (@Barchart) June 14, 2024 🇫🇷 #France #Stocks | Since June 6 (close), French small and mid caps are down >7% while big caps (CAC 40) are down ~5% – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/60BUoofU9W — Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) June 14, 2024
.@Polymarket – Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? (May 20) 🟥 Trump: 52% (+10)🟦 Biden: 42%🟨 RFK Jr: 2%——Trump's odds of winning Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona are at an all-time high. GEORGIA 🟥 Trump: 65%(+30)🟦 Biden: 35%.NEVADA 🟥 Trump: 62% (+24)🟦… pic.twitter.com/OIxc1sNWjD — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024 Trump opens 6 pt lead …
Maybe inflation has something to do with housing supply. But what do I know? A recent report highlighted the ongoing debate surrounding the minimum wage in California. The state recently introduced a $20 minimum wage. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/california-s-workers-now-want-30-minimum-wage/ss-BB1mrTtM Sice 2019, U.S. rents have grown 30.4%, while wages have grown 20.2%. Rents have outpaced wages in 44 of …
Copper prices surge to an unprecedented high of $5.08 per pound, marking a staggering 30% increase year-to-date and fueling concerns of rampant inflation. This new record surpasses the previous peak observed in March 2022, coinciding with the fastest inflation rate in 40 years. Over the past three months alone, copper prices have skyrocketed by 35%, …
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite popped to record highs Wednesday and added to their strong 2024 performances. The major averages were boosted by a lighter-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation report. The broad market index gained 1.17%, breaking above 5,300 for the first time, to end at 5,308.15. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.40%, to close …
Brace yourselves for the economic storm! The heartland of America is trembling as the median mortgage payment skyrockets to an unprecedented $2,894 per month, shattering all previous records. But the nightmare doesn’t end there. In the wake of Bidenomics, renters and prospective homeowners are being mercilessly squeezed, with only those fortunate enough to have secured …
Is the Fed heading towards another monetary policy mistake? "Perhaps, the Fed has no idea what is going on and their past policy mistakes can be taken as proof. If they indeed have no clue, how can anyone trust them?" 👇https://t.co/5SUCjKpcmZ — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 4, 2024
The Fed’s planned balance sheet taper starting in June poses risks reminiscent of the 2019 Repo crisis. Crash risk is high. pic.twitter.com/oKDgxkJyaq — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 1, 2024 To the bulls who are now saying that the Fed's planned balance sheet taper starting in June is "bullish", I would point out that it was QT …
via oilprice: Crude oil exports from Iran hit the highest level in six years during the first quarter of the year, data from Vortexa cited by the Financial Times has shown. The daily average over the period stood at 1.56 million barrels, almost all of which was sent to China, earning Tehran some $35 billion. …
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to a record in February, its fifth straight monthly rise, Treasury Department data released on Wednesday showed. Holdings totaled $7.965 trillion, up from a revised $7.945 trillion in January. Treasuries owned by foreigners rose 8.7% from a year earlier. Holdings of Treasuries grew the most …
pic.twitter.com/UuOgLAgagH — Simonwins (@simonwins28) April 8, 2024
58% of people surveyed by Fannie Mae think it would be difficult to get a mortgage these days, 4% higher than in February. It is near the record of 60% share of respondents in October. US Housing affordability is near the historic low. pic.twitter.com/V7l3822s3m — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 9, 2024 Visualizing the U.S. …
28,577 job cuts this month so far, our highest week since we began tracking data in September #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/qWRmCEoscN — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) April 5, 2024 Although the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report issued Friday showed that the unemployment rate “changed little” last month, a separate report found that layoffs reached a …
Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data, this is critical knowledge to have. The Household Survey, which produces the unemployment rate and has been appreciably weaker than the Establishment Survey, which generates nonfarm payrolls, because it’s PROCYLICAL, it’s picking up the cycle’s end. https://t.co/kE2FRuOw8p — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) April 4, 2024 ⚠️ Initial claims for state …
“The rally in US equities since last October’s near-death experience has been unmistakably broad, even though the Mag 7 have captured most of headlines. And last week this broadening was confirmed when the S&P 500 equal-weighted index made an all-time high for the first time in 26 months. Both the charts show the percentage of …
JUST IN: #Bitcoin surpasses silver to become the 8th largest asset in the world. — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) March 11, 2024 Hedge Fund equity long exposure is at 5-year highs according to Goldman Sachs 👀 pic.twitter.com/4DG9YVzjMq — Barchart (@Barchart) March 11, 2024
(Bloomberg) — There’s a subtext to this year’s blistering rally in US risk assets: When it comes to the dollar, there is no alternative. The greenback is just shy of the record it reached during the pandemic and on pace for its best year since 2020. As measured against the currencies of America’s largest trading …
