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“Deutsche Bank’s forecast points to a sharp deterioration in S&P 500 earnings growth, with Q2 expected to turn negative and a deeper contraction anticipated later in 2025 if tariffs persist, marking a stark divergence from the more optimistic bottom-up consensus.” – @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/zRShvKWuSp — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 8, …
Household debt service ratio vs. disposable personal income growth byu/MonetaryCommentary inEconomyCharts Rising household debt service and fading disposable income growth are quietly throttling the U.S. expansion from the inside out. As households allocate more of their income toward debt obligations, they leave less room for discretionary spending. This is about …
And now, it is showing up in the hard data. Credit card transactions began falling in a highly unseasonal manner in the last week of April. Spending slows down, layoffs speed up. It’s just that simple. pic.twitter.com/I7zBVDie5u — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 5, 2025 Bonds are setting up the ultimate …
Revenue in Amazon’s online ad business rose 19% to $13.92 billion. Amazon has emerged as a force in digital advertising, trailing only Meta and Google in the U.S. Amazon reported a 19% increase in online ad revenue in the first quarter, beating analysts’ estimates. Ad sales climbed to $13.92 billion, …
Commercial and industrial loan growth has completely stalled over the past three years. The current level of interest rates is putting considerable pressure on both credit expansion and overall economic activity, in my view. The longer this restrictive rate environment… pic.twitter.com/8n6oHTQQnY — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) May 1, 2025 This …
On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/VLdYkdKqYr — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 29, 2025 "S&P500 still has plenty of room to fall if a recession is inevitable," per Bloomberg — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 29, 2025 Dallas Fed logistics …
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year. We better hope there’s no recession, because if there is, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates could be a real drag on the market, in my view. pic.twitter.com/gDXHwh4KDC — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 28, 2025 …
🇨🇳🇺🇸CHINA PREPS FOR “EXTERNAL SHOCKS” AS TRADE WAR ESCALATES Xi’s Politburo is scrambling emergency plans and new monetary tools as Trump’s 145% tariffs slam the world’s number 2 economy. Beijing says it's done talking until the U.S ditches all unilateral tariffs – and it's not… https://t.co/MhpDMuo9ne pic.twitter.com/LCJSitlqNI — Mario Nawfal …
On April 24, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.5%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/EHDZPwdxiP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 24, 2025 Feels like 2008 all over again, according to this price analogy. pic.twitter.com/28V5dOW5hL — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 24, 2025 2/ US government bonds have …
SMALL BIZ LOVES THE PAIN—TRUMP TARIFFS GET A THUMBS-UP FROM MAIN STREET A flash poll of 50,000 small business owners shows they’re not flinching. Nearly 70% believe Trump’s tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy, and 77% say business will grow in 2025—even as 29% admit costs are rising. ‘ That’s …
by confoundedinterest17 US home prices are slowing as Jerome Powell and The Fed slow down M2 Money printing. Notice the lag effect between M2 Money growth (green dashed line) and the Case-Shiller National home price index (solid blue line). Both have slowed. Should The Fed keep on printing money? We don’t …
*IMF CUTS GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.8% IN 2025, CITING CENTURY-HIGH U.S. TARIFFS — Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 22, 2025 US Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Apr: -42.7 (prev -32.5). 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/YwRqrzxYT4 — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 22, 2025 U.S. FACES “MANUFACTURED” RECESSION IN 2025, IIF WARNS The IIF expects a …
🇩🇪GERMANY SLASHES GROWTH FORECAST – STAGNATION NOW ON THE MENU Germany just tossed its 2025 growth forecast in the trash – now expecting zero growth instead of the already sad 0.3%. That’s 2 years of economic flatlining…and with Trump’s tariffs back in play, Berlin’s staring… https://t.co/hCh8K7x1Mm pic.twitter.com/HPvspVNnGl — Mario Nawfal …
“Natural resource assets have never been more undervalued, in my view. Most commodity prices are trading near historical lows when measured against gold. We’re at the early stage of recognizing that the monetary issues we face can’t be resolved unless nations begin to meaningfully accumulate gold. The next phase comes …
CHINA’S 2025 GLOW-UP? CANCELLED. UBS SLASHES GROWTH FORECAST AS TARIFFS BITE UBS—the fancy Swiss bank that stares at charts for a living—just said “nah” to China’s 2025 economy. They downgraded the growth forecast from 4% to a gloomy 3.4%. Why? Because the U.S. slapped on those spicy new tariffs, and …
Interesting perspective, it somehow makes sense. South Korea and China are already in a demographic collapse which will be difficult to reverse. Isn’t it cute though how Paris sticks out? The French have always been so romantic. pic.twitter.com/qbW0XKl1jU — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) April 15, 2025
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: "While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth." pic.twitter.com/BiybBbBTAh — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 13, 2025
Bank of America recommends to sell the rip 🍀 — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 11, 2025 BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK SAYS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MUCH GREATER EMBEDDED INFLATION IN THIS COUNTRY – CNBC — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 11, 2025 Inflation expectations remain well anchored… lol pic.twitter.com/P5obSDFctd — Michael …
A lot of talk about inflation driving gold higher, but the copper / gold ratio which is a proxy for global growth, is signaling deflationary depression. pic.twitter.com/u2hpZvZ1of — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 11, 2025 People still have no idea the decoupling is happening. Ships are no longer sending goods from China …
BREAKING: US stock market futures extend declines with the S&P 500 now down -100 points. pic.twitter.com/eG01CX8SY0 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 10, 2025 Bloomberg comes out bearish on the Trump walk back. Average effective tariff rates are now 24% from 27% this morning. Still massively anti growth, pro inflation, …
TRUMP JUST NOW: – Stocks were up 88% in my first term, they will be up more now that I get to do what I want with tariffs – Countries are calling me and “kissing my ass” – Congress wants to take away my power to negotiate on tariffs but …
"For all of 2025, [analysts] see profits rising 9.4%, compared with a projection of 12.5% at the beginning of the year."@NKniazhevich pic.twitter.com/bArD2ic1wC — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) April 9, 2025 DELTA CEO: GROWTH HAS ‘LARGELY STALLED’ WITH TRADE UNCERTAINTY || TAKING ACTION TO PROTECT MARGINS, CASH FLOW || TO REDUCE PLANNED …
Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman on Trump’s policy and the markets: “You can’t fix 30 years of economic mismanagement overnight. He’s taking the right steps, but he’s moving too fast.” He also added: The bottom for the stock market isn’t in yet—sell into strength. The long… pic.twitter.com/CONDSUCR3U — Wall St Engine …
President Trump just accused Fed Chair Powell of always being "late" to cut rates. Despite markets pricing-in more rate cuts, Powell is saying he is willing to wait. US stocks are extending losses. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 4, …
Latest estimate: -3.7 percent — April 01, 2025 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of …
Capex growth is slowing from here:$MSFT : “Capex in 3Q and 4Q should be similar to 2Q.”$TSLA: “Capex will be flat.”$META: “It’s possible that we’ll learn otherwise at some point, but I think it’s way too early to make that call." pic.twitter.com/06YMK2ZHKg — JaguarAnalytics (@JaguarAnalytics) January 29, 2025
Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists. The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year. The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and …
via WSB: Coreweave is set to launch its IPO tomorrow at $40 per share. Its NVDIA backing sounds promising, but balance sheet constraints and shady collateral backing for massive loans can’t be brushed off. Coreweave managed to skyrocket into the headlines over the past couple of years after solidifying its …
Why Europe is mired in slow growth: "The European tax take from workers' wages in Germany, France, and Italy is over 50%. That means the state owns more of European workers' income than they do." EU WORKERS = SLAVES OF THE STATE. pic.twitter.com/gvbMr4EdEH — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) March 22, 2025
4/ Trump even stated he wouldn’t rule out a recession in 2025 That added fuel to the sell-off as investors reassess US economic growth Especially under a president who is less focused on short-term economic prosperity pic.twitter.com/M3lDTxZm1Y — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 22, 2025 6/ Google Trends data shows searches …