Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael A worst-case scenario could be just weeks away. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially paralyzed by the war with Iran, and there is a lot of speculation that the Houthis could soon bring commercial traffic through the Red Sea to a screeching halt. If such a scenario actually materializes, it …
Record outflows from US financial stock funds are flashing a warning few are paying attention to. In the week ending March 11, equity funds lost $7.77 BILLION, with global financial sector funds alone shedding $2.31 BILLION, according to a Twitter analyst @DefiWimar. Meanwhile, bond funds took in $5.72 BILLION and money market funds added $6.93 …
BREAKING: Don’t be like the UAE. Never help the Islamic regime of Iran survive, because they do not spare even their friends. An IRGC Aerospace Force Shahed-136 drone strike hit a building at the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) earlier today.#OperationEpicFury… pic.twitter.com/n9s1vV3dtR — Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) March 13, 2026 Explosions rocked …
Moody’s Ratings has projected a negative outlook for New York City’s finances, chalking it up to the city’s large and persistent projected budget gaps — and citing Mayor Mamdani’s plan to draw down from reserves in order to balance the budget this year. The negative outlook won’t have any immediate impact on the city’s borrowing …
THE WAR JUST MOVED INTO THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Iran just told everyone in the region to stay 1 kilometer away from US and Israeli banks and financial centers. This came after the US and Israel struck Iranian banks overnight. Iran’s response: US and Israeli banks “should wait for our painful response.” Think about what this …
by confoundedinterest17 Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED. You know what that means!
Jim Ferguson @JimFergusonUK 🚨 BREAKING: CRACKS APPEARING IN THE FINANCIAL GIANTS For the first time in its history, BlackRock’s $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund is facing major withdrawal pressure. Investors requested $1.2 billion in redemptions in a single quarter — more than 9% of the fund’s total assets. That’s nearly double the 5% threshold …
RECORD 401(k) WITHDRAWALS SIGNAL FINANCIAL STRAIN A record share of Americans are tapping retirement savings as financial pressure rises. In 2025, 6% of workers with plans run by Vanguard Group made hardship withdrawals—up from 4.8% in 2024 and about 2% pre-pandemic. The main… — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 4, 2026 COLUMBUS, Wis., March 04, 2026 …
Federal Reserve Financial Services (FedACH) is currently experiencing a partial outage, with confirmed issues affecting the FedACH service. StatusGator reports that other components of the Federal Reserve Financial Services are operational, but users relying on FedACH for electronic payments may face disruptions. Status: Partial outage — FedACH is down. Impact: Delays in processing ACH files, …
Nearly half of Americans in a new WalletHub survey said their household can’t manage more debt, while more than one-third said they expect to have higher balances by the end of 2026. Fifty-three percent of households said the struggle the most with credit card debt, followed by mortgages at 20% and student loans with 11%. …
Macro vulnerability increasing ahead of automation wave. The consumer most exposed to AI displacement already has no financial runway. Before a single layoff announcement, 401k hardship withdrawals are 365% above baseline. Emergency savings at a 15-year low. Credit card delinquency in the 40-59 cohort at 12.7%. The shock absorber… — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) February 22, …
via Nick Giambruno Warren Buffett once referred to derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction.” He wasn’t being dramatic—he was warning that if things went wrong, these complex financial instruments could cause massive, far-reaching damage to the global economy. What Buffett feared most was how a sudden, unexpected market shock could set off a dangerous …
This is insane The US economy is now reliant on older Americans more than ever before pic.twitter.com/PE0U2wf7sI — Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) February 20, 2026 US Consumer Sentiment collapses to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/kMt4jDRY50 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 20, 2026 Sam Altman just admitted AI will make most humans economically …
JUST IN: Donald Trump's 'World Liberty Financial' sells $5M worth of Bitcoin — Kalshi Traders (@KalshiTrade) February 5, 2026 ‘Never sell your Bitcoin,” says Trump during White House crypto summit h/t dr0id
Lawsuits do not mean guilt, but they do mean someone thinks the books were dressed up while risk was buried. If AI demand slows or financing tightens, this kind of leverage does not unwind politely. They will tell you, "We never saw it coming." pic.twitter.com/eoUhPP387V — The Great Martis (@great_martis) February 4, 2026 “When you …
UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults – Leveraged loans: 8% – High-yield bonds: 4% PC most exposed because that’s where 2021-2022 vintage software deals got funded when banks couldn’t syndicate. The concentration is now becoming the vulnerability. UBS worst-case AI disruption scenarios: – Private credit: 13% defaults– Leveraged loans: 8%– High-yield …
The UN is on the brink of “imminent financial collapse” due to US funding being slashed, according to Secretary-General Guterres. Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/12AhLKICzh — AF Post (@AFpost) January 30, 2026 United Nations chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warned that the world body is on the brink of financial collapse and could run out of cash …
by Michael When the economy and the financial system are both greatly shaken at the same time, the consequences can be extremely painful. Most of you still clearly remember what life was like in 2008 and 2009. It was such a dark chapter in American history. But there have been other times when we have …
Congress just made them a $6 billion giveaway for issuers. US Congress just legalized the largest wealth transfer in financial history. Nobody noticed. Section 11 of the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying yield to holders. Tether holds $135 billion in Treasuries earning 4.5%. That’s $6 billion annually. Passed to you: $0. Tether keeps everything. …
via Phoenix Capital Research Silver is becoming a systemic risk. For years, rumors have swirled that the CME and other futures exchanges were permitting too many silver contracts. Remember, a silver futures contract is supposed to be backed up by actual physical silver, meaning the investor has the option to “take delivery” of actual silver bullion if …
2026 just started and China already dropped a financial bomb 💣 Beijing quietly EXTENDED a policy letting banks roll over 3.8 TRILLION yuan of bad personal loans. Translation: the debts are so bad they can’t be cleaned up. Banks are dumping credit-card defaults at 10–20¢ on the dollar, hiding losses, and repackaging the trash into …
It's plausible deniability through pretend stupidity. There's no way someone that smart about money didn't know that the covid bank bailout was going to cause rampant inflation. pic.twitter.com/ObOqknbTns — Ilgephelfis 🐸🤡👽🎻🎶 (@ilgephelfis) January 12, 2026 That Powell is forced to defend himself and the Fed from Trumpian intervention in this way is why foreign institutions …
BANK of America has confirmed that it will close all of its branches for a 24-hour period, forcing customers to change their plans as the the day quickly approaches. Customers looking to make changes or seek assistance with their bank accounts at physical branch locations before the Martin Luther King holiday might be out of …
🚨 BREAKING. Scott Bessent just announced the Internal Revenue Service is launching MASSIVE AUDITS of financial institutions that facilitated the laundering of Minnesota funds. Read that again. Banks. MSBs. Financial middlemen.Anyone who helped move dirty money is about to get… pic.twitter.com/AOXOfIgua7 — Stand Up For Trump (@StandUpForTrmp) January 11, 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said …
Federal prosecutors have launched a new criminal investigation into New York Attorney General Letitia James, after a grand jury previously declined to indict her twice on unrelated criminal charges, two sources familiar with the matter told CBS News. The new probe, which is in its early stages, marks the latest effort by the Justice Department …
How long before $250 trillion of hidden risk explodes in the financial system? World ‘blind’ to risks in booming $250tn shadow bank market The world’s top financial regulators have admitted they are blind to dangers lurking in the shadow banking sector. On Tuesday, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), a network of global watchdogs, said “severe …
Everything is breaking records at the same time and that’s not strength, that’s stress. When stocks, gold, debt, and delinquencies all hit highs together, it means the system is being force fed cheap money. Cutting rates now doesn’t fix the problem, it pours gasoline on it. This rally isn’t confidence, it’s desperation dressed up as …
The wannabe real estate moguls going bust Mom-and-pop landlords built real estate empires using under-the-radar DSCR loans. Now it’s coming back to bite them. Applying for a home loan is a pain. You have to produce a heap of documents — bank statements, tax returns, employment records, tallies of investment accounts — to prove the …
