Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
I think this is where a lot of people get the economy wrong. They’re judging today’s Federal Reserve with a 1990s playbook. Back then the Fed was mostly known for one thing. Raise rates when inflation got too hot. Cut rates when the economy slowed. That was pretty much the conversation. Look at today’s Fed. …
The regional banking crisis is much worse than they make it out to be. Since Aug, banks have tapped the Fed for $863 million, and from May to June, $555 million. As shown by the facility, it is progressively getting worse. Contagion is beginning to look like a reality. The regional banking crisis is much …
Trump did not just push the boundaries of power. He forced the courts to decide if the Federal Reserve’s independence now means protecting one of its own when fraud allegations surface. The statute says a governor can only be removed “for cause.” But it never defined the term. That hole in the law is now …
Is Donald Trump going to fire Jerome Powell? And what will the impact be on the housing market? It seems likely that the Fed will cut interest rates over the next year, which could re-stimulate the housing market. And potentially push home prices up. But will that actually happen? Home prices are dropping in many …
by confoundedinterest17 The April Jobs report blew away the tariff crash hysteria. 177k jobs were added, far better than the doomsayers predicted. Even better, more jobs went to native-born workers than foreign-born workers. Even better still, Federal jobs decreased (thanks to Doge). The US labor market under the Biden administration “grew” almost entirely on the back of …
You can just feel the disinflation…..🙄🙄🙄 pic.twitter.com/dGKW6MrNOm — Reggie Hammond (@markymark740338) May 2, 2025
The American economy is suffocating under a mountain of debt so vast that traditional monetary tools no longer work the way they used to. Interest rate hikes? They barely move the needle now. We’ve entered a stage where the sheer size of the national balance sheet has paralyzed policymakers. The old playbook is useless. We …
by confoundedinterest17 Did Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve push markets too hard? Sales of existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops that closed in January dropped by 4.9% from December, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 4.08 million sales, according to the National Association of Realtors today. This rate of sales was up just 2.0% …
DOGE takes aim at the Mother of Slush Funds: The Federal Reserve. With Ron Paul to head the team. Americans would probably love to know who got the Fed's $7 trillion. pic.twitter.com/GI7TGl68nM — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) February 21, 2025 FBI DIRECTOR KASH PATEL: “The Federal Reserve is not a public government entity, it’s …
Fed Minutes (January 2025) Fed can maintain policy at restrictive level if economy strong Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution Two participants believe risks to achieving inflation mandate outweigh risks to employment mandate Most participants judged risks to dual mandate objectives were roughly in balance Fed wants further …
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January jumped by +.4%, exceeding the forecasted +.3%. This unexpected rise highlights ongoing inflation pressures, which could have significant effects on both consumers and businesses. The PPI gauges the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. When the PPI is higher …
The Trump administration is more focused on keeping Treasury yields low rather than on what the Federal Reserve does, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. While in the past President Donald Trump has implored the Fed to cut its benchmark rate, Bessent said Wednesday that the current strategy is using the levers of fiscal policy to …
Two senior Federal Reserve officials said Monday that they are in no rush to cut interest rates further given the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and the White House’s new policies, including tariffs. “In my view … it’s really appropriate for policy to be patient, careful and there’s no urgency for making additional adjustments, …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 One reason that US home prices remain high (and unaffordable for many) is The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime). Former Fed Chair (and Biden’s Treasury Secretary is no Luciana Paluzzi, the Italian beauty from the James Bond film Thunderball. Yellen is just a far-left economic hack. Look at the Case-Shiller national home price index …
Stock futures were down sharply on Monday on concern about an artificial intelligence stock bubble popping because of the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek that possibly made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the cost. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 430 points, or 1%, while S&P futures shed 2.3%. …
Investors should brace for possible shifts as the tightening continues, with bigger moves on the horizon. RRP nearly drained pic.twitter.com/wIFR4J106L — Max Anderson (@MaxAnderson) January 23, 2025 DXY ripping (drives down global liquidity) pic.twitter.com/ZK32fgsPeW — Max Anderson (@MaxAnderson) January 23, 2025
by ReDDisko We are now approaching the point where a new commitment may no longer be possible. As a result of the recession and the ensuing financial crisis, the Fed will no longer be able to target inflation and will be forced to lower interest rates and start buying assets from the market. More precisely, the …
Its never been more obvious the markets are setting up for an epic downside crash. I know you have been spoiled on the “up-only” markets, but the FED cannot save you without causing massive inflation. They have to let equity markets fall. Its coming, its obvious. Its never been more obvious the markets are setting …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even larger than the drop seen in 2008, 2nd largest behind 2020. What is happening here? …
This scenario isn’t just about market dynamics; it’s a warning sign. With the Fed seemingly powerless over the bond market, and with investments in everything from digital art to unprofitable tech ventures defying gravity, we might be in for a rude awakening, much like the one that followed the 1920s. Im just going to call …
Central banks have just engineered the worst crisis we've ever seen and now it's ready to go. By pulling the liquidity rug away they've set the stage for another crisis, all that's needed is the trigger/narrative. https://t.co/2RhyVZhH5c pic.twitter.com/tas2TgrN22 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 6, 2025 There goes the 10 year yield, climbing its way into the …
From my perspective, the main takeaway is that Fed liquidity has been locked into a “stair-stepping downwards” pattern since April 2024. Starting from a new lower base at the beginning of every quarter. The “stealth QE” that occurred during 2023 is now being wiped away. From now on, Fed liquidity will likely continue to generally …
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate moves lower, real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.3 percent to -0.7 percent, while the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent. #math pic.twitter.com/3xqmr0b3YB — Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) January 2, 2025 Interesting We’ve almost given back the whole bounce since Trump was …
FED to inject additional overnight liquidity for the next 4 days… ⬇️ https://t.co/yevigWhCa5 pic.twitter.com/gffxUFgmXE — Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) December 30, 2024 A key risk for the market is that if repo rates again surge unexpectedly, and dealers aren’t in a position to step in, hedge funds may not have properly factored in that risk, triggering …
“They want your retirement money. They want it back so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street, and you know something? They’ll get it. They’ll get it all from you, sooner or later, ’cause they own this fucking place. It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.” ~George Carlin The …
