Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A financial tool that millions of Americans rely on, known as a credit score, could be hiding a sinister secret about your brain health, experts warn. A new study by the New York Federal Reserve and Georgetown University has uncovered a disturbing link between declining credit scores and the onset of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD). The research, …
What’s happening now is a troubling shift in the job market. Job openings are being filled as new entrants join the labor force and displaced workers find new positions. However, these job openings are not being replenished, leading to an uptick in the unemployment rate. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find work, and unless the …
In a bold move towards fiscal adaptation, California pioneers a controversial car tracking initiative to plug the budgetary holes left by waning gas tax revenues. As the state braces for an electric future, the debate over privacy versus necessity reaches a critical juncture. Key points: California pilots “road charge” to replace declining gas tax revenue. …
🇺🇸 US net interest and miscellaneous payments on assets by private enterprises $95.2 billion. 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗤𝟰 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟲! Locked in debt at cheap funding rates when the Fed had rates at zero and invested cash to earn higher interest income as the Fed raised rates. pic.twitter.com/Jo94wjhGTV — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 28, 2024 This means …
“Workers’ wages buy less and less. In fact, workers have lost purchasing power during the past half-century. Comparing prices to wages, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than six times from 1965 to 2011—while the minimum wage rose less than five times. Professionals also suffered. According to the Engineering Workforce Commission, a senior engineer’s …
Amidst plummeting real GDP and soaring inflation, Americans face a grim reality of diminishing purchasing power and rising debt burdens. As savings rates hit record lows and credit card delinquencies soar, the economic strain becomes increasingly palpable, sparking concerns over financial stability and future prospects. I don’t know who needs to hear this but real …
by betsharks0 The volatility (vol) of equities (stocks) is decreasing quickly compared to the volatility of interest rates. It’s measured by the ratio of the respective 1-month (1M) and 50-day (50D) volatility. This suggests that the relative volatility between stocks (equities) and interest rates is shifting. If equity volatility is declining rapidly compared to rate …
https://twitter.com/TheWakeninq/status/1775057862189850828?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Highest YoY Rise in Credit Card Delinquency Rates Below, you'll find a chart showing the year-over-year (YoY) change in credit card delinquency rates. As of Q3 2023, the YoY change stands at 43%. This rapid rise has never occurred. Credit card delinquency rates are currently… pic.twitter.com/FUWyLsmsvW — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) February 12, 2024 U.S. 🇺🇲 …
In the realm of economic indicators, recent trends in the US retail sector are sending warning signals. Real retail sales have declined by 1.6% year over year, a concerning downturn that historically precedes a recession. Moreover, the stagnation in retail sales is mirrored by a surge in unsold new-build inventory, indicative of weakening consumer demand. …
🇺🇸 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Expectations minus Present Situation -77.2 Leading indicator for #recession! Chart: @LizAnnSonders pic.twitter.com/nYsQcGlMBq — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) March 27, 2024 As economic indicators send warning signals, analysts are keeping a close eye on the pulse of the trucking industry. The latest data points to a downturn in the number of …
via Mike Shedlock: To entice buyers, home builders are building cheaper and cheaper houses. What are you getting for your money? New Home Sales Prices from the Commerce Department, chart by Mish. New Home Sales Key Points The average sales price peaked at $568,700 in December of 2022. The median sales price peaked at $498,800 …
Chief Economist Warns Of High Chances Of Recession Due To Rising Unemployment And Declining Consumer Spending The chances of the economy sliding into a recession are “extremely high,” as the United States is on the brink of experiencing a surge in unemployment and a significant decline in consumer spending. Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of …
One thing missing is high performance standards We used to hold ourselves to standards and feel bad if we undershot our potential or got out of shape or failed in relationships Now, everyone is told “it’s okay as long as you’re trying” Or, worse, “it’s someone else’s fault” — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) March 5, 2024
All he can do is read the teleprompter. It starts at 11 minutes. Biden won’t debate Trump And he won’t be the nominee. He took ONE question. ONE QUESTION. Then walked away. And that ONE QUESTION had the slowest most pathetic response I have ever seen. I watched it live and Holy Shit it was …
Bob Hoye is a trained geologist, successful resource investor and economic historian. Bob is the chief investment strategist for chartsandmarkets.com.
China’s economic woes deepen as the Hang Seng Index plunges 4% in response to another round of disappointing macro data. The persistent question arises: how long until China resorts to injecting substantial liquidity despite its rapidly escalating debt? Concerns grow over the limited list of quality Chinese stocks, given the government’s authority to cease businesses …
by DesmondMilesDant So basically when global CB’s raises rates to fight inflation the yields on bonds started going up. Now if the money was moving from stock market to bond market to chase higher yields then why didn’t the market crashed coz the vol must have gone up. Reason being banks create SP’s that dampens …
Consumers are opting for BNPL services despite potential financial risks. This is how you delay a banking collapse by continually extending credit. Yes, and these BNPL offerings are also happening as the personal savings rate has been in a downtrend since May.https://t.co/iytYsrl5X1 — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) December 20, 2023
Are people moving? Died suddenly? In Akron the student population went from 37,000 in 2004 to under 20,000 in 2023 The population in this city has been declining since 1800’s There were more people here back then. Any thoughts? https://fox8.com/news/declining-enrollment-means-big-changes-for-akron-schools/ AC
by Naive-Historian-2110 In 2008 only 9% of mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure. it doesn’t matter if half of homeowners have a 2% mortgage. it only takes a seemingly small amount of defaults and delinquencies to send waves. It’s definitely going to be the mother of all crashes. It’s like if the GFC f**ked the …
by Chris Black Recent IPSOS polling (https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/11/26/one-in-four-europeans-say-their-financial-condition-is-precarious) found several concerning trends among the populations of Europe 30% of Europeans can no longer afford a “surprise expense” 47% of Europeans have had to turn down the heat in their homes and go cold, due to energy prices 37% of Europeans have had problems affording health treatment …
The current VIX level of 13 reflects a hesitancy among investors to take a bearish stance on the prominent Big 7 stocks. Global corporate buybacks, on a downward trajectory since 2019 despite heightened volatility in inflation and interest rates, may indicate a erosion of savings. As downgrades to U.S. earnings estimates persist for nine consecutive …
https://t.co/KraPDgOOQm — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 16, 2023 More Chinese cities record falling home prices in October BEIJING, Nov. 16 (Xinhua) — More Chinese cities reported falling home prices in October, official data showed Thursday. The National Bureau of Statistics said 56 of 70 large and medium-sized cities saw month-on-month drops in new home …
by confoundedinterest17 “Two-job Joe” should be Biden’s new nickname for his economy wrecking ball known as Bidenomics. The economic disaster known as Bidenomics (code for wealth transfers to the donor class) can be seen in the following chart. Non-elite households are struggling to cope with higher gasoline, food and house prices (rent) under Bidenomics. As …
https://t.co/uiWqkdCywT — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 6, 2023 Uh 🤔 pic.twitter.com/sYScyDhelh — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 6, 2023 Report Finds Chapter 11 Filings by Businesses Soar 61% So Far This Year U.S. businesses faced significant challenges in 2023, with commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies rising by 61% to 4,553. Small business filings increased by …
All major buckets of jobs are showing declining growth. The labor market slowdown has been extremely slow, particularly through the cyclical sectors that have experienced labor hoarding issues. Interestingly, service sector jobs growth has cooled sharply in recent months. pic.twitter.com/ffcIIbzpUm — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) October 4, 2023 How many name changes will they go through …
US housing market affordability is, by far, at its lowest point in history. Even in the worst part of the 2008 financial crisis, affordability was ~15% BETTER than its current levels. With the recent move higher in treasury yields, we should see 8%+ mortgages within a week or… pic.twitter.com/fhfRwmMcSf — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September …
via geofinancialnews: Declining credit quality metrics in Commercial real estate lending pushed several banks to reduce their exposures to the sector by offloading loans related to the asset class, particularly office loans, in the second quarter. US banks’ commercial real estate loan portfolios showed signs of increasing stress During the second quarter, the net charge-off …
