Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The bond market is placing bets as to rates will be in two years. They're betting there's bad things ahead https://t.co/o9q9qo7821 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 26, 2024 Ya but just how bad is this? During the GFC the lowest of the low points AFTER a deep jobs recession was 168.9. Purchase demand is at …
by confoundedinterest17 That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns… …and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’… “The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals …
Risk appetite has fallen for a third successive month in August … down to a one-year low of -10% in August from -5% in July pic.twitter.com/s9jGWi2DOw — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2024 Investors increased allocation to bonds, cash, and healthcare … and reduced allocation to equities, Japan, Eurozone, and materials pic.twitter.com/z1TKlEbaF2 — Win …
by confoundedinterest17 The slowing US economy has a silver lining: Treasury and mortgage rates are declining. And the is spurring faster mortgage prepayments. Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, …
A quarter point rate hike from 0% to .25% caused a -27% decline in the Nikkei, wiped out all gains for the year and caused a global crash w/$6.4 trillion in stock losses. So far.https://t.co/VCez2pIbgq The global stock losses exceed the entire value of the Japanese stock market… pic.twitter.com/CKFGfuwxXw — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 6, 2024 …
A new poll from YouGov found that 92% of Americans believe Kamala Harris is to blame for covering up Joe Biden’s obvious mental decline. Despite the fact that 60% of voters were honest enough to agree that Joe Biden was mentally incapacitated, it took this year’s presidential debate with Donald Trump where Joe Biden really …
by Shock2k McDonald’s same-store sales fall for 1st time since 2020 | AP News https://apnews.com/article/mcdonalds-second-quarter-earnings-b4cf6976a8688796b75404f178c5798b The increase was due to a 40% Increase in paper, food, and “labor” (the robots McD’s workers got canceled) prices. Though the number of customers declined, the sales decreases weren’t as steep because of the higher prices. I’m not sure …
Job postings are down Double digits 12.4 % year over year to lowest level since April 2021 . Throw out the 50 % below comparison as that was largely states reopening from Pandemic lockdown . The 11.7 above pre pandemic is absolutely anemic job creation and even that is mostly government and struggling families forced …
China’s annual “618” mid-year e-commerce sales festival recently experienced a decline in sales for the first time in eight years. This event, which is China’s second-largest in terms of annual sales, serves as a barometer for household consumption. According to data from Syntun, the gross merchandise value (GMV) during this year’s 618 festival fell by 7% …
BREAKING 🚨: Japan Japanese Yen is in imminent danger of falling to the 160 level against the U.S. Dollar and is on track for an 8th consecutive daily decline against the USD! Absolute collapse here! pic.twitter.com/V2SE3W52zw — Barchart (@Barchart) June 24, 2024 USD/JPY pic.twitter.com/oL2Qdgsiob — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 24, 2024 Japan says it's …
US Supercore inflation increased 5.0% year-over-year in May, its highest level since April 2023. Supercore inflation is a key metric the Fed follows which includes core services inflation less shelter. Over the last 8 months, it has seen a significant increase from ~3.8% in October. This is despite core CPI inflation declining to 3.4% year-over-year …
The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 92.2 from 68.6, the sharpest decline since January. pic.twitter.com/VJCtYT1HDC — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 7, 2024 The NAAIM Exposure Index is a tool used to gauge the sentiment of active investment managers in the stock market towards US equities. Here’s a breakdown: Source: The National Association of Active Investment …
As we see in the chart below, in recent years the S&P 500 has made no new highs without Tech leadership. Which is unfortunate, because it appears that the Nvidia is having its Gamestop moment ahead of this impending stock split (tomorrow after the close).… pic.twitter.com/bU54jn9mKh — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 6, 2024 Bitcoin Update . …
Will Lewis, the Washington Post’s publisher and CEO, told whiplashed staff on Monday the paper needs to do something radical to make the company profitable because readership has drastically declined. The meeting was held after executive editor Sally Buzbee abruptly left the Washington Post after coming from the Associated Press in 2021. “We need world-class …
Target just issued a very concerning earnings report. Stating that their sales dropped and fewer customers are coming into the store. A concerning signal about the health of the US consumer in 2024. In particular – Target is warning that inflation-battered consumers across America are now starting to cutback on spending. A signal that the …
Google’s increasing reliance on AI-generated search results is transforming how we interact with the internet. While this shift offers convenience, it threatens the traditional web ecosystem. As AI provides direct answers to queries, web traffic to content creators decreases, potentially undermining the accuracy and richness of future AI data due to reduced human input. Key …
#recession … #GFC2 China #Consumer edition https://t.co/LFlIfgMRwb pic.twitter.com/NkpL5pBgUd — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) May 11, 2024 🇨🇳 #China Consumer #Inflation Rises, Factory Price Drop Continues – Bloomberghttps://t.co/V5KF35Tuil pic.twitter.com/7GT29WWWIZ — Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) May 11, 2024 China’s consumer inflation quickened in April, holding above zero for a third month, while industrial prices extended a long decline that …
The AI chip market faces a significant downturn with net sales plummeting by nearly 25% sequentially and over 40% compared to the previous year. Amidst inflationary pressures and concerns over misdirected investments, every chip company is being labeled as an AI play, raising doubts about the sustainability of the market. https://twitter.com/GregCrennan/status/1787580544479572371 Every chip company is …
In a quarter marked by challenges, Apple’s latest financial report unveils a surprising resilience, defying expectations and igniting investor enthusiasm. Despite a turbulent market and fierce competition, the tech giant showcases strength in key sectors, signaling enduring potential amidst adversity. Key points: Apple’s second-quarter results surpassed expectations, with sales declining less than anticipated and profits …
via Mike Shedlock The ISM manufacturing index is back in contraction after a one month reprieve, but prices expand sharply. It’s a bad mix. ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM® The April 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® looks dismal except for production. The U.S. manufacturing sector dropped back into …
The international community is scrambling to provide Ukraine with air defense batteries, but two key countries, Spain and Greece, have declined to donate their systems. Despite Ukraine’s urgent need for at least seven advanced air defense batteries to protect its cities and critical infrastructure from Russian attacks, Madrid and Athens are prioritizing their own security …
Beneath the surface of reported crime statistics lies a troubling reality: a decline in reported crimes masks a surge in unreported incidents, fueled by plummeting arrest rates and faltering law enforcement. As the narrative of decreasing crime faces scrutiny, revelations from the National Crime Victimization Survey unveil a stark contrast, painting a picture of escalating …
Texas Instruments faces a grim reality as first-quarter results reveal a stark 16% revenue drop, extending a troubling trend over six consecutive quarters. Despite high hopes pinned on the AI boom and economic growth, the company grapples with persistent declines, prompting skepticism and scrutiny from analysts. Amidst growing concerns, the narrative shifts to confront uncomfortable …
Tesla’s recent earnings stumble, coupled with its first year-over-year sales drop, casts a shadow over the electric vehicle giant. Despite bold initiatives like the Cybertruck launch and pricing adjustments, revenue plummeted by 9% in Q1, prompting investor alarm. Despite Tesla's efforts, including the launch of the Cybertruck and refreshing the Model 3 with lower prices …
from Kerry Lutz’s Financial Survival Network Kerry talks to Paul Oster about a range of financial topics, including declining credit scores, evolving pricing strategies of retail stores, student loan debt, housing market concerns, psychological and societal factors in financial decision-making, budgeting for groceries, and debt repayment and financial planning. Speakers emphasized the need for individuals to take control …
by confoundedinterest17 Come feel the noise! After steady growth in 1-unit housing starts under Trump, housing starts have been eratic under Biden despite the foreign invasion force of millions … of low wage workers. The roller-coaster ride in housing permits, starts, and completions in the last few months is set to continue today… and ‘surprise’ they …
The precipitous decline in the value of a prominent Class A office tower, 750 Lexington in NYC, sends shockwaves through the commercial real estate sector, with Morningstar reporting an alarming 83% decrease in valuation since 2015. The transfer of a $130M loan tied to the building into special servicing due to default further exacerbates concerns …
The outlook for small business sales is beginning to decline, historically signaling a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Small Business Optimism Index plummeted to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the third consecutive decline and the 50th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Small biz sales outlook starting to deteriorate… Historically …
