A hub for independent voices and hard truths
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward …
There's no question the AI boom resembles the dotcom bubble but at what point in the cycle is $SPY? pic.twitter.com/hAYEKauxLy— Beardo (@BeardoTrader) April 25, 2026 I spy with my little 👁️something beginning with B 🫧 pic.twitter.com/Evdn3Ooj7W— The Great Martis (@great_martis) …
Interesting clip from a recent conversation featuring Matthew Piepenburg. He argues that rising debt levels are forcing governments into a corner where they prioritize protecting bond markets over preserving currency value… something we may be starting to see play out …
The most important cycle nobody talks about. The Global Liquidity Cycle has followed a near-perfect 65-month wave since 1965. Every peak → markets top → risk assets fall Every trough → markets bottom → everything rallies The chart just flashed …
Trump says the U.S. will hit Iranian bridges that would take “15-20 years to rebuild.” Bridges are civilian infrastructure that millions of Iranians depend on daily. Destroying them doesn’t weaken the IRGC. It punishes ordinary people and makes postwar reconstruction …
BREAKING: DDR5 memory prices crash up to 30% after Google unveiled TurboQuant. Google TurboQuant cuts AI memory usage to 1/6, raising concerns about memory demand. Memory prices are up 106% since 2024 lows, but are now falling. 32GB DDR5 on …
Lots of different sectors of the economy are at risk with Ai, but one sector benefits from everything that is happening. Silver mining. Most silver mining companies are struggling to just maintain their current level of production. Globally, silver mining …
A Google search for “Trauma Bond” yielded the following definition. A trauma bond is a powerful, unhealthy emotional attachment that develops between a victim and their abuser, often characterized by a cycle of intense abuse followed by periods of affection or …
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance …
@grok when will this be confirmed — the special one (@the_specialtwi) December 12, 2025 Grok factcheck: The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on December 18-19, 2025, is expected to confirm a rate hike to 0.75% and signal further increases, potentially …
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully …
not sure about that? pic.twitter.com/R1DilijKUf — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) November 23, 2025 US TSY SEC BESSENT REMARKS: “Interest rate sensitive sectors are in recession, but I’m confident about 2026 growth.” “Inflation is being driven by services rather than imported …
https://twitter.com/spice1975503/status/1991520334458343476 Noticing a growing number of Fed officials voicing concerns about private credit lately. But this one is esp notable where one of them is openly highlighting risks among life insurers (its largest investor base). If the Fed is concerned …
“We’re sitting on the ultimate house of cards,” says real estate developer Mitch Wexler to Daniela Cambone. He details how a “$5.1 trillion school bond Ponzi scheme” using inflated home values is pushing the system to “terminal failure.” He warns …
Most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can extend. It’s simple. If the business cycle extends, the crypto cycle extends. Bitcoin is a macro asset… pic.twitter.com/JrtWAqPJpT — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 20, 2025 Global freight …
By Egon von Greyerz Egon von Greyerz sits down with geopolitical strategist Simon Hunt (Founder at Simon Hunt Strategic Services) for a panoramic look at the risk minefields most politicians and financial planners continue to ignore. Hunt argues that the post-1945 US-centred …
Liquidity can’t stop a business cycle that’s already turning. Weak growth is the warning shot before the crash. When the cycle breaks, stocks don’t get “saved.” They get crushed. "Liquidity cannot stand the turn of the Business Cycle" (no matter …
The system’s crumbling, gold’s at $3500, a dead canary in a coal mine. Central banks cut rates as inflation hits 3%, pure sabotage dressed up as policy. Yields at 30-year peaks shout panic, not control. They’re pumping a bubble to …
PUTS are dirt cheap. Adding some protection here makes a lotta sense imo. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 28, 2025 Of course, I don't expect stagnation to last that long, but this is a reminder that anything can happen in …
Nearly half of millennials say the cost of living keeps them from buying a home. “Forty-five percent of people aged 23 to 38 say high living costs stop them from owning a house,” Bankrate said in a survey.https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/down-payment-survey-september-2019/ Only 38% …
The global easing cycle continues pic.twitter.com/2umptKG11j — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) June 18, 2025 Gold is increasingly on the radar of Wall Street heavyweights and influential economists. Just in the last 2 months: Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine) calls gold a "Flight-to-quality …
New home prices are fairing much worse when measured by Fed rate cycles than they were during the 2004-2009 Fed rate timeline. New Memo in comments. pic.twitter.com/Za3K6Q7dys — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) June 7, 2025 “Housing IS the business cycle” – Edward …
🎈Saylor defends accusations that $MSTR is a Ponzi by comparing it to a REIT…this is the conman answer. Here’s why they’re not at all the same -> 1. REITs are operating cash flow positive from rental income, generating enough to …
There’s a whole generation of investors who never lived through pain. They came of age in a world where risk meant reward and loss meant stimulus. Where the Fed was not a referee but a guardian angel. They watched markets …
Watch about 5 minutes is all you need. Basically he talks about these big tech companies going all in on ai and then automating their employees out. Employees laid off and they don’t buy that companies products. So company lays …
They also aren't the only oneshttps://t.co/weBn1upsYc — Pledditor (@Pledditor) May 25, 2025 MicroStrategy $MSTR appears to be beginning wave (c) of what is likely a 5 wave drop. This is how toxic convertible bonds blow up, exactly what Saylor did …
🚨Container bookings from China to the US are COLLAPSING: Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US fell 45% Y/Y in mid-April, according to Vizion. Next will be a trucking demand DROP leading to empty shelves, lower …
Portland Oregon Homeless Industrial Complex scam EXPOSED – Large homeless encampments are given brand new tents by the city – The city then goes and post these legal notices a few days later at the areas – They remove the …
Pledditor remembers pic.twitter.com/wd78W5tUaf — Pledditor (@Pledditor) May 20, 2025 Funny you say that, because Metaplanet recently got Eric Trump to join on its board 🥴🥴https://t.co/6FXKWYQSwL — Pledditor (@Pledditor) May 21, 2025 Do you not see the problematic trends? Our mempools …
Why this housing cycle is worse than 2008: 1. More speculation 2. More fraud 3. More unaffordable 4. MUCH worse demographics 5. Structural inflation Reason its delayed: 1. Government keeping MILLIONS of homes off the market using taxpayer dollars. — …