Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward P/E of 16.03, is pricing continuity rather than acceleration. That continuity assumption matters because American …
There's no question the AI boom resembles the dotcom bubble but at what point in the cycle is $SPY? pic.twitter.com/hAYEKauxLy — Beardo (@BeardoTrader) April 25, 2026 I spy with my little 👁️something beginning with B 🫧 pic.twitter.com/Evdn3Ooj7W — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 24, 2026 Hedge Funds Brace For Reversal: Dump Tech Stocks At Fastest …
Interesting clip from a recent conversation featuring Matthew Piepenburg. He argues that rising debt levels are forcing governments into a corner where they prioritize protecting bond markets over preserving currency value… something we may be starting to see play out globally. Curious what people think about this perspective. h/t thetimeisgold
The most important cycle nobody talks about. The Global Liquidity Cycle has followed a near-perfect 65-month wave since 1965. Every peak → markets top → risk assets fall Every trough → markets bottom → everything rallies The chart just flashed a signal. Global liquidity has topped. The 65-month wave says what comes next. It has …
Trump says the U.S. will hit Iranian bridges that would take “15-20 years to rebuild.” Bridges are civilian infrastructure that millions of Iranians depend on daily. Destroying them doesn’t weaken the IRGC. It punishes ordinary people and makes postwar reconstruction exponentially harder. And if the pattern holds, Iran will retaliate by hitting bridges somewhere in …
BREAKING: DDR5 memory prices crash up to 30% after Google unveiled TurboQuant. Google TurboQuant cuts AI memory usage to 1/6, raising concerns about memory demand. Memory prices are up 106% since 2024 lows, but are now falling. 32GB DDR5 on Amazon fell from about $490 to $379.99, while 16GB DDR5 fell from about $260 to …
Lots of different sectors of the economy are at risk with Ai, but one sector benefits from everything that is happening. Silver mining. Most silver mining companies are struggling to just maintain their current level of production. Globally, silver mining output is in decline. So the key is to focus on the stocks that have …
A Google search for “Trauma Bond” yielded the following definition. A trauma bond is a powerful, unhealthy emotional attachment that develops between a victim and their abuser, often characterized by a cycle of intense abuse followed by periods of affection or kindness. Coined by Dr. Patrick Carnes, this bond is rooted in fear, dependency, and intermittent …
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance sheets cannot. By the time equities notice, the damage is already baked in. A HUGE …
@grok when will this be confirmed — the special one (@the_specialtwi) December 12, 2025 Grok factcheck: The Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on December 18-19, 2025, is expected to confirm a rate hike to 0.75% and signal further increases, potentially to 1.0% by September 2026, based on economist surveys and reports from Reuters and others. …
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
not sure about that? pic.twitter.com/R1DilijKUf — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) November 23, 2025 US TSY SEC BESSENT REMARKS: “Interest rate sensitive sectors are in recession, but I’m confident about 2026 growth.” “Inflation is being driven by services rather than imported goods.” “We should see an announcement this week regarding health care costs.” “Prices are starting …
https://twitter.com/spice1975503/status/1991520334458343476 Noticing a growing number of Fed officials voicing concerns about private credit lately. But this one is esp notable where one of them is openly highlighting risks among life insurers (its largest investor base). If the Fed is concerned about lifers, things are quite serious. pic.twitter.com/sC3uUFrdKq — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November 20, 2025 Everything’s …
“We’re sitting on the ultimate house of cards,” says real estate developer Mitch Wexler to Daniela Cambone. He details how a “$5.1 trillion school bond Ponzi scheme” using inflated home values is pushing the system to “terminal failure.” He warns of the outcome: “Can you imagine what will happen if a school district… shows up …
Most people are overcomplicating the idea that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can extend. It’s simple. If the business cycle extends, the crypto cycle extends. Bitcoin is a macro asset… pic.twitter.com/JrtWAqPJpT — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) September 20, 2025 Global freight shipments are literally as low as they were during the peak of the COVID pandemic …
By Egon von Greyerz Egon von Greyerz sits down with geopolitical strategist Simon Hunt (Founder at Simon Hunt Strategic Services) for a panoramic look at the risk minefields most politicians and financial planners continue to ignore. Hunt argues that the post-1945 US-centred order is giving way to a harder-edged, multilateral bloc led by Russia, China, and now …
Liquidity can’t stop a business cycle that’s already turning. Weak growth is the warning shot before the crash. When the cycle breaks, stocks don’t get “saved.” They get crushed. "Liquidity cannot stand the turn of the Business Cycle" (no matter what liquiditist try to tell us). Recession is coming! And it will crush stocks. #BTC …
The system’s crumbling, gold’s at $3500, a dead canary in a coal mine. Central banks cut rates as inflation hits 3%, pure sabotage dressed up as policy. Yields at 30-year peaks shout panic, not control. They’re pumping a bubble to dodge the collapse. This isn’t economics, it’s a knife in your back. Your money’s burning …
PUTS are dirt cheap. Adding some protection here makes a lotta sense imo. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 28, 2025 Of course, I don't expect stagnation to last that long, but this is a reminder that anything can happen in the markets, and we should be prepared for different scenarios. At some point, the buy-the-dip …
Nearly half of millennials say the cost of living keeps them from buying a home. “Forty-five percent of people aged 23 to 38 say high living costs stop them from owning a house,” Bankrate said in a survey.https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/down-payment-survey-september-2019/ Only 38% of Gen X and 31% of Baby Boomers said the same. Bankrate also found that …
The global easing cycle continues pic.twitter.com/2umptKG11j — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) June 18, 2025 Gold is increasingly on the radar of Wall Street heavyweights and influential economists. Just in the last 2 months: Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine) calls gold a "Flight-to-quality asset". Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard) says "Gold is the new gold". David Einhorn (Greenlight) notes that… …
New home prices are fairing much worse when measured by Fed rate cycles than they were during the 2004-2009 Fed rate timeline. New Memo in comments. pic.twitter.com/Za3K6Q7dys — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) June 7, 2025 “Housing IS the business cycle” – Edward E. Leamer pic.twitter.com/ADAw5zYC5S — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 7, 2025
🎈Saylor defends accusations that $MSTR is a Ponzi by comparing it to a REIT…this is the conman answer. Here’s why they’re not at all the same -> 1. REITs are operating cash flow positive from rental income, generating enough to cover interest & dividend payments. $MSTR is cash… pic.twitter.com/ZakvRDo7cs — Rho Rider (@RhoRider) June 4, …
There’s a whole generation of investors who never lived through pain. They came of age in a world where risk meant reward and loss meant stimulus. Where the Fed was not a referee but a guardian angel. They watched markets recover in days, not years. And they believed it. All of it. They saw the …
Watch about 5 minutes is all you need. Basically he talks about these big tech companies going all in on ai and then automating their employees out. Employees laid off and they don’t buy that companies products. So company lays off more employees, and the circle continues. They’re eating their own… h/t John Dutton
They also aren't the only oneshttps://t.co/weBn1upsYc — Pledditor (@Pledditor) May 25, 2025 MicroStrategy $MSTR appears to be beginning wave (c) of what is likely a 5 wave drop. This is how toxic convertible bonds blow up, exactly what Saylor did in 2000. https://t.co/FHNLxPA8g1 pic.twitter.com/7FnX7b8jRi — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 25, 2025
🚨Container bookings from China to the US are COLLAPSING: Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US fell 45% Y/Y in mid-April, according to Vizion. Next will be a trucking demand DROP leading to empty shelves, lower sales, layoffs and a RECESSION. pic.twitter.com/4hJ4tg53fo — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 29, 2025 🚨Container …
Portland Oregon Homeless Industrial Complex scam EXPOSED – Large homeless encampments are given brand new tents by the city – The city then goes and post these legal notices a few days later at the areas – They remove the tents – They then hand out new tents “I’m about to explain to you the …
Pledditor remembers pic.twitter.com/wd78W5tUaf — Pledditor (@Pledditor) May 20, 2025 Funny you say that, because Metaplanet recently got Eric Trump to join on its board 🥴🥴https://t.co/6FXKWYQSwL — Pledditor (@Pledditor) May 21, 2025 Do you not see the problematic trends? Our mempools are empty. The class of 2025 isn't being onboarded to bitcoin, they are being onboarded …
Why this housing cycle is worse than 2008: 1. More speculation 2. More fraud 3. More unaffordable 4. MUCH worse demographics 5. Structural inflation Reason its delayed: 1. Government keeping MILLIONS of homes off the market using taxpayer dollars. — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 19, 2025 https://twitter.com/PhilipSoos/status/1913804783745683479 This is exactly how the 2008 Financial Crisis …