Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Amid ongoing debates, the unfolding of the current economic cycle appears to align more with the 1970s than the World War II era, based on available data. Despite the ongoing debates, the current economic cycle has unfolded much more like the 1970s period than the World War II era up to this point. To put …
It’s hard to envision international support for Israel enduring, given apparent IDF disregard for the rules of war It’s not unreasonable to expect a ceasefire within a month or two. The chances are that IDF will not have achieved even some of their objectives by then, leaving everyone to question what it was all about …
T-bills are paying 5.5% risk free, meanwhile, stocks are yielding 1.5% with end of cycle risk. Let's draw a picture to help bulls understand: pic.twitter.com/aqDLJiOEl2 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 4, 2023 Yield Curve flattening – after inversions – is textbook #recession behavior. Today seems no exception! pic.twitter.com/NRGLvqBgWr — jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) October 5, 2023
The Prime Rate is now 8.5%, the highest since it hit 9% in 2001. Prime hasn't exceeded 10% since the 1980s. Many loans are set at prime plus a premium. From 2008 to 2022 Prime was mostly 3.5%. The record high was 19.5% in 1981. I believe that the high this cycle will exceed 20%. …
by confoundedinterest17 Thanks to Bidenomics, code for massive Federal spending on green energy initiatives and payoffs fo large donors, we have agonizing inflation and consumers are borrowing more and more to cope with inflation. And with the increased use of debt comes …. drumroll … delinquenices! Let’s start with mortgage loans, the overall delinquency rate …
A default cycle has started, but market doesn’t see it yet. https://t.co/fI4VTaArqo — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) August 28, 2023 The last pump before the coordinated rug pull. https://t.co/WQKCi7fW3U — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 28, 2023 China’s Debt Problm Could Trigger a Financial Crisis, Analyst Says China’s Worsening Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Across the Globe Policymakers are …
De-dollarization will be a vicious cycle as hyperinflation leads to higher rates that will further erode the greenback’s power, think tank says The use of the US dollar as a reserve currency is under threat — and the greenback is headed for a vicious cycle that will further erode its dominance, according to the Australian …
The real estate sector has been deteriorating amidst an unprecedented rate hike cycle Yearly change in home prices has been sharply dropping from its highs, similar to the 1979, 1990 and 2006 pic.twitter.com/HgQNr18wzk — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 27, 2023 We may be in for protracted home price retracement Rather than a sudden crash like …
The economic news is getting really bad but markets are still rising. The brief final stage of the market cycle.pic.twitter.com/55ZY4MGgPy https://t.co/rX8hxr3YI3 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 25, 2023 The overwhelming temptation of every financial pundit is to lure sheeple into a market powered by five stocks:https://t.co/vCedAfNQWd And then after the crash tell everyone no one saw …
Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 has a 100% hit rate in leading to recessions since the 1970s We’ve already hit levels as deep as -31.3 this cycle pic.twitter.com/b0oZkiqicM — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 BREAKING: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes in below expectations Expected = -10.1 Actual = -13.5 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
Buckle up. https://t.co/chFvOntM28 pic.twitter.com/vpe6MGyW04 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 5, 2023 https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1676942029039837185
Gold looks to be getting ready to blaze through this historic resistance and move substantially higher. A surge in the metal price will likely mark the beginning of a new gold cycle that should be accompanied by a much-awaited influx of capital into the mining industry. pic.twitter.com/iKgOX71NZv — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 17, 2023 …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1668241972883062785 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1668243598272241667 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1668238110264643586
Hedge funds are continuing to bet against short-dated Treasuries, extending their record selling streak as wagers mount that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is far from over. https://t.co/98PnJfM6c7 pic.twitter.com/fFQVUQb7Hp — Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) June 12, 2023 🚩 Deutsche Bank expects an imminent default wave, with a peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. It forecasts …