Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The signs are clear, and they’re downright alarming. The new administration seems set on cutting 25-35% of the federal workforce, which could lead to as many as 800,000 job losses. That’s unthinkable. If this goes through, expect an additional 50 basis points added to the unemployment rate, and that’s before even factoring in the contractor …
by Michael Have you ever not been able to sleep at night because you are stressed out about your finances? If so, you are certainly not alone. When there is simply not enough money coming in to pay all the bills, the pressure can be excruciating. The cost of food, housing and other essentials has been …
🇺🇸 GOLD CLIMBS AS STAGFLATION FEARS RETURN US consumer confidence just hit a four-year low, and markets are starting to panic. With inflation expectations rising and real yields falling, investors are rushing into gold—pushing it above $3,018. Fed officials admit goods… https://t.co/B4ffcDfY7p pic.twitter.com/TJR1XlmXAj — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 26, 2025
TLDR: Trump ends federal funding for Planned Parenthood, marking a pro-life victory. Taxpayers no longer forced to subsidize an abortion-driven organization. Planned Parenthood’s misleading “healthcare” narrative exposed as a cover for abortion. Biden-Harris funneled funds into Planned Parenthood; Trump dismantles that system. States can still fund it, but federal dollars won’t bankroll abortion advocacy. A …
The European Union has just made a major move in trade policy that could reshape the auto industry in the U.S. They’ve slashed the tax on American-made cars from 12.5% to a mere 2.5%, effectively matching the U.S. tariff on European-made vehicles. This is a game changer, especially for automakers like Honda, who will now …
Zillow just revised down their 2025 housing market forecast to 0.6% price growth on a national basis, down from 2.9% earlier this year. The result is that Zillow is now forecasting home price declines in 250 cities across America, a clear sign of a slowing housing market. The areas in the U.S. where home prices …
Elon Musk wants to cut 80% of the federal government according to Howard Lutnick. — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) March 23, 2025 This is huge, I has to ask Grok for more details: *Reports indicate that FBI Director Kash Patel, who is also serving as the acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives …
4/ Trump even stated he wouldn’t rule out a recession in 2025 That added fuel to the sell-off as investors reassess US economic growth Especially under a president who is less focused on short-term economic prosperity pic.twitter.com/M3lDTxZm1Y — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 22, 2025 6/ Google Trends data shows searches for "recession" have spiked to …
via Mike Shedlock Let’s investigate Fed Fund Futures and rate cut expectations. The above chart is adapted from May and June CME Fedwatch Futures. The next Fed meeting is on May 7. As of March 23, the market thinks there is only a 22.1 percent chance of a single quarter-point cut. But if we further out …
When staff at a tax office in Ogden, Utah, arrived at work a few weeks ago to find dozens of their colleagues had been dismissed by Elon Musk’s cost-cutting task force, they swiftly appealed to their Republican congressman. They hoped that Blake Moore, whose district office is in the same building as the Internal Revenue …
Job cuts remain elevated this month, even accounting for temporary re-hiring imposed by judges, >112K cuts this month#MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/4thThM2DnC — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) March 19, 2025
Model me this: Dario expects full reciprocal tariffs to bump CPI to estimated +1.3% pts – about the same negative hit to GDP. Stagflation on top of bear market. So now tell me: Why are markets a buy here? https://t.co/2pRSGdxYRH — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 19, 2025 Breaking CNBC: Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan …
Agents from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency are accused of breaking into the nonprofit US Institute of Peace on Monday night as it continues to take a chainsaw to waste, fraud and abuse in Washington. The organization’s CEO, George Moose, said, ‘DOGE has broken into our building’ after having been turned away on Friday. …
RATE CUTS can (often do) send stock markets plunging. The biggest stock market plunge in recent times was associated with rate cuts. BITCOIN & CRYPTO track stock markets… pic.twitter.com/ZMrWdDXGge — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) March 17, 2025 When stocks crash in response to rate cuts, expect Bitcoin to follow. The truth is, rate cuts might seem like …
Pentagon to unveil cuts alongside fiscal 2026 budget request Congress will have to wait to learn more about Defense Department’s efficiency efforts Pentagon leaders plan to roll out their recommended cuts to military spending alongside their budget request for fiscal 2026, the Defense Department indicated in a newly released letter to Congress. The letter, addressed …
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/video/la-housing-authority-stops-accepting-section-8-applications/ Enough of this financial welfare. Section 8 shouldn’t be subsidizing $2500+ rents in LA. We need a serious reset—force relocation to more affordable areas and pull the plug on the government-fueled rent and asset bubbles. The modern monetary theorists have bankrupted the system by encouraging financial irresponsibility.
DOGE chief Elon Musk said that he is running his businesses “with great difficulty,” as shares of his automotive firm Tesla suffered their worst drop in a half-decade. Musk also said during an interview on Fox Business that he expected to remain in the Trump administration for another year. Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency is …
Donald Trump and Elon Musk are dramatically reshaping the federal government while the GOP-led Congress has passed a budget resolution to dramatically cut spending while also cutting taxes. What will the impact of these significant moves be on the economy, and will they help forestall an economic collapse driven by the rampant borrowing and money …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought news which suggests that the claimed pivot from some ECB policymakers would be sensible. Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 3.6% in January 2025 from 3.4% in December (revised from 3.5%). In fact 3.6% is the latest level overall. averaging 3.6% in the three months up to …
HOMAN: “Let me start out by saying this. If I offend anybody today, I don't give a sh*t … I'm sure I'll be reading a lot of hit pieces on me tomorrow. I don't give a sh*t what you think about me … because we got a job to do.” 🔥 pic.twitter.com/D7Kj4wOiGA — Chief Nerd …
Pete Hegseth orders defense leadership to draw up plans for huge budget cuts as DOGE enters the Pentagon: report Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly asked Pentagon officials Tuesday to draw up plans to slash defense spending for each of the next five years — as the department became the latest target of the Elon Musk-led …
O’Leary is right—there’s no more time to waste. With our national debt at $36.22 trillion, we are past the point of careful trimming. The system is bloated, broken, and dragging us down. Half-measures won’t fix this. We need deep, relentless cuts—every wasted dollar, every useless program, every ounce of government excess must go. Mistakes? Sure, …
Mass layoffs by the Trump administration have left Colorado federal workers, as well as Coloradans who rely on federal programs, in limbo.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further. “I would like to gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the …
WASHINGTON—In a bid to get ahead of what could be drastic cuts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, some parts of the military are preparing lists of weapons they have long wanted to cancel but couldn’t get past lawmakers seeking to protect spending in their districts. DOGE members are expected at the Defense Department …
The Trump administration’s decision to slash overhead costs linked to federally funded research has sparked an immense backlash. But some doctors are praising the move, suggesting it will help “optimize” how taxpayer dollars are used when it comes to scientific research. A new rule from the Trump administration that went into effect Monday, capped facilities …
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) says he “won’t vote for” a reconciliation package that is not fully paid for with real spending cuts, he told Axios. Why it matters: A “no” from Paul would be an early reminder that even the Senate’s safer bet for a quick win isn’t a sure thing. The House is mired in debate over …
Tax cuts are great! Everybody loves them, and pretty much nobody votes for a candidate who promises higher taxes. But tax cuts aren’t free – the government still needs to replace the revenue lost when taxes fall. Today, we realistically assess whether the nation can afford the Trump Tax Cuts… By Peter Reagan There are two …
It includes: 1. No tax on tips. 2. No tax on senior’s Social Security. 3. No tax on overtime pay. 4. Renewing Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. 5. Adjusting state and local tax (SALT) cap. 6. Eliminating special tax breaks for “billionaire sports team owners.” 7. Closing the carried interest loophole. 8. Tax cuts for “Made …
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to reduce #BankRate to 4.5%. Find out more in our #MonetaryPolicyReport https://t.co/alETrQ281L pic.twitter.com/Vuo5G6m1H8 — Bank of England (@bankofengland) February 6, 2025