Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
It’s really a question of whether a recession is coming or not. When the Fed cuts rates, it is often to prevent the economy from going into recession or trying to get us out of one. The 50 point cut has some believing that the Fed knows the economy is weaker than we think and …
https://twitter.com/NeilMispelaar/status/1838357686825443390
(Sept 24): Gold prices surged to a record high on Tuesday as a cocktail of factors, from hopes of further US rate cuts and China stimulus measures to elevated Middle East tensions, lifted demand. Spot gold steadied at US$2,628.63 per ounce as of 0903 GMT after hitting a record high of US$2,639.95 earlier in the …
"The Trump administration sharply reduced funding to some UN agencies, but President Biden has largely reversed those cuts."👇https://t.co/Swwu78EISi https://t.co/O4gjKFhaKx — DoctorRay (@DrNoMask) August 29, 2024
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls US Treasury yields fell by up to 5 basis points to 3.807% as investors anticipated larger Fed rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut inte… More here: https://t.co/AdIot28g1y pic.twitter.com/rGam65VO7z — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) August 23, 2024 Powell: "the time has come" for the central bank …
These small changes are statistical noise. Price trend is still up and that will accelerate after the September cut. — The Greatest Degeneration (@1Aerosavant) August 15, 2024
It's Going to Be Different This Time (Really) Markets expect fed funds cuts, but they'll stop above 3% pic.twitter.com/uDx3LbGTuP — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2024
Spot on. Many companies are banking on Fed cuts to ease their debt burdens, but higher credit spreads could still pose a significant risk — Blue&White (@LiorBershtling) July 11, 2024 Don’t panic, that’s the Private Equity arm of $GS not the bank 🙅🏻♂️ Narrator: mmmmmm…. Great catch @kshaughnessy2 👏🏻 https://t.co/nb2Qudpz7X pic.twitter.com/1DZCQZ8Ifv — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) …
Australia and Canada cut rates, now inflation is re-accelerating in both those countries. Europe cut rates, now stocks are imploding. China cut rates, now they're in recession. All U.S. investors want to know is why can't we cut rates too? pic.twitter.com/MNS8k7kIso — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 27, 2024 Ho lee fuk Emergency rate rises needed. It's …
Yesterday: ECB "we expect 7 rate cuts in 2024". Meanwhile…. pic.twitter.com/Skp04MpN7n — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 31, 2024
Development and production have been sluggish since the strikes, leaving desperate workers in the lurch: “All of a sudden the faucet just turned off.” Veteran unscripted producer Wendy Miller was attending a gathering for women over 40 in unscripted television who are unemployed when she had the idea. Though the get-together could easily have turned …
Families will today be urged to stockpile three days’ worth of food and water to help build national ‘resilience’. Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will advise people to make contingency plans for dealing with potential emergencies such as prolonged power cuts, cyber attacks and floods. Last year, Mr Dowden said people should stock up on …
by confoundedinterest17 I doubt if Biden really understands what he is saying. He simply reads (badly) off a teleprompter. Biden has repeatedly claimed that no new taxes on anyone making less than $400,000. Remember, he has repeatedly said “You have my word as a Biden.” Which is worthless, by the way. There are TWO taxes that …
Economists from Bank of America just warned that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates until March 2025. With other news outlets speculating that the next Fed move might actually be a rate hike.
In the realm of economic indicators, recent trends in the US retail sector are sending warning signals. Real retail sales have declined by 1.6% year over year, a concerning downturn that historically precedes a recession. Moreover, the stagnation in retail sales is mirrored by a surge in unsold new-build inventory, indicative of weakening consumer demand. …
London catching up to Shanghai. Gold trading at $2,222 there today. — Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek (@goldseek) March 27, 2024 In the world of commodities, gold has always held a special allure, and today, its shine is only growing brighter. As London bids up gold prices, the market buzz is palpable, with prices …
In what universe does this bode well? I'm predicting that New York City is in for a very difficult time. There are simply not enough LEOs available to keep the streets safe. If the article from @PoliceOne is any indication, that safety is going to decline further. Recruitment is down, and with the cancelling of …
Welcome to the market rollercoaster, where optimism is the name of the game. Investors are reveling in the highs – 75% are singing praises, 20% are keeping a level head, and 5% are eyeing the potential pitfalls. Now, here’s the plot twist: experts are buzzing about not one, not two, but five rate cuts on …
via Mike Shedlock On January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets. Here’s the result in pictures. Tax data from the BEA, chart by Mish The Tax Foundation noted State Tax Changes Taking Effect January 1, 2023 On January 1, 2023, thirty-eight states have noteworthy …
by confoundedinterest17 The Fed had better think twice about expected rate cuts. The market just isn’t feeling it. Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield touching almost 4.10% as investors focused on stronger-than-expected December retail sales and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve members. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was recently up 4 basis points at …
Getting inflation to 2% has proven to be much harder than getting inflation from 9% to 4%. Supply chain issues and rising commodity prices have a lot to do with it. The Fed and ECB's job is still far from over. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter …
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1739419853943923071 This infuriating year, marred by relentless inflation, epitomizes the struggle of everyday Americans. Families, like Kyle Connolly’s, grapple with layoffs, escalating living costs, and diminished luxuries. The glaring disconnect between positive economic indicators and the grim reality faced by communities like Florida’s panhandle underscores the systemic issue. While the Federal Reserve boasts about curbing …
Chinese banks accelerate bad loan sales amid rising consumer defaults in the post-COVID economic recovery. Record issuance of non-performing loan-backed securities, up 40%. Real estate meltdown hits middle-class wealth, with 30% pay cuts, stock and property losses. Households reassess money priorities, facing the impact of a 5% decline in home prices wiping out trillions in …
This comes exactly 2 months after Argentina's central bank raised rates to a record 133%. Argentina has averaged a 40% inflation rate per year over the last 10 years. Is this last ditch effort going to work? Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 12, 2023 …
As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …
In a bold move for Argentina, President Javier Milei has taken office with a commitment to slashing the budget and rejecting leftist ideologies. A breath of fresh air for the country, Milei is steering away from woke ideology and socialism, signaling a significant shift in Argentina’s political landscape. Stay tuned for the impact of these …
Speaker Mike Johnson pitches Republicans on plan to avert government shutdown There are already a handful of Republicans who are skeptical of Johnson’s proposal to keep the government funded. At least two say they will vote against it. Reps. Chip Roy and Marjorie Taylor Greene said they’re a no. But would Democrats support it? “It’s …
by confoundedinterest17 So much for Biden’s “miracle economy.” Challenger jobs cuts report is out for May and job cuts soared 286.7% year-over-year (YoY). As M2 Money growth crashes.