The signs are clear, and they’re downright alarming. The new administration seems set on cutting 25-35% of the federal workforce, which could lead to as many as 800,000 job losses. That’s unthinkable. If this goes through, expect an additional 50 basis points added to the unemployment rate, and that’s before even factoring in the contractor and consultant cuts that will follow.
The federal government workforce ex post office is about 2.5mln workers or about 1.5% of total employment. Notably that share of the workforce as been stable for decades now outside of census periods. pic.twitter.com/QFq5918dQd
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) March 28, 2025
Workforce reductions of that size would go well beyond the roughly 10% of employees that have been in their role for less than a year that are considered probationary and much easier to cut. pic.twitter.com/Th6rVxXch3
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) March 28, 2025
These cuts could wipe away up to 6 months of employment growth for an economy with rapidly weakening demographics and near zero immigration at this point.https://t.co/zyKe94FyKw
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) March 28, 2025