Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
America hasn’t even felt the full hit from the US and Israel conflict with Iran yet. AMERICA HAS NOT YET FELT THE FULL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE U.S.–ISRAEL WAR WITH IRAN, BUT THE PAIN IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY SOON RISING OIL PRICES, SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, AND HIGHER INPUT COSTS ARE ALREADY BUILDING PRESSURE THAT COULD …
Bark @barkmeta Nobody wants to talk about what this headline ACTUALLY means… “Thousands of CEOs say AI had no impact.” They’re not saying it because it’s true. They’re saying it so you don’t quit before they’re done with you. Hiring is frozen at every major company. College graduate unemployment just hit a record. AI budgets …
by Michael There is no way to get around it. We are facing a major global economic disruption, and the longer this war goes on the worse it will get. As I have reminded my readers on numerous occasions, our entire way of life is predicated on cheap energy, and the Middle East is the …
😁😁 pic.twitter.com/THYaZynzXL — World Monitor (@MonitorWarnow) February 19, 2026
‘The Big Money Show’ panel discusses Vice President JD Vance’s warning about AI surveillance, political bias and the risks of moving too fast in the tech race with China.
“A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among 6,000 CEOs, chief financial officers, and other executives from firms who responded to various business outlook surveys in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia, the vast majority see little impact from AI on their operations.” Uh oh. 🫠 "A study …
by Michael A G4 geomagnetic storm watch has been issued, and we are being told that the Earth is going to be hit. But at this hour we do not know how bad it will be or how much damage will be done. We are being told that scientists won’t know the intensity of the …
Federal food aid will not go out starting Nov. 1 amid government shutdown, Trump administration says The U.S. Department of Agriculture has posted a notice on its website saying federal food aid will not go out on Nov. 1, raising the stakes for families nationwide as the government shutdown drags on. The new notice …
With a ceasefire in place, Palestinians have been returning to what remains of their homes and communities. Much of what were bustling streets have been made unrecognizable by the destruction of war, reduced to nothing more than twisted metal and concrete.
The Devastating Impact of a Government Shutdown in Democrats’ Own Words. 🎶 We’ll Be Here as Long as Democrats Prioritize Radical Left Policies Over Americans. https://t.co/unVyPZuBCP — The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 30, 2025
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Let’s discuss Trump’s tax hike on US consumers and businesses. Penn Wharton Analysis of Tariff Revenue Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues Please consider the Penn Wharton Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues projection as of September 10, 2025. Key Points New tariffs have raised $80.3 billion in revenue between January 2025 …
by Michael It was nice while it lasted. Nations all over the globe had until August 1st to agree to a trade deal with the Trump administration. Some of them made deals, but most of them did not. Those that did not will now be hit by a “wall of tariffs”, with individual rates being …
An 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula on July 30 2025. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center quickly issued widespread alerts across Hawaii, the U.S. West Coast and Pacific nations then downgraded Hawaii to an advisory once initial waves peaked around 1.7 m. Kamchatka Governor Vladimir Solodov remarked “Today’s earthquake was serious and the strongest …
https://x.com/TimcastNews/status/1940455932112392368 https://x.com/TimcastNews/status/1940455932112392368 https://www.newsweek.com/trump-big-beautiful-bill-threatens-professional-gambling-2093514
Remarkable chart. Spending on computer equipment just made its largest contribution to GDP on record in the most recent quarter. Unlike the steady buildup we saw in the 1990s, this time we’re seeing a sharp, sudden surge. I don't think the world is prepared for the surge in… pic.twitter.com/oe8pzP6CuB — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) May …
The bond market is going out of control worldwide, with long-term yields skyrocketing, and it’s not even blinking at the stock market’s recent dive. This is a big deal because it shows investors are seriously worried about debt and inflation, not just stock prices. Higher yields mean borrowing gets pricier for everyone, from governments to …
🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US-UK trade pact will leave the 10% US tariff in place – CNN. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) May 8, 2025 Trump's "big" trade deal is with the UK:– It's a framework not a deal– They're our 11th largest trading partner– They're only 3% of US trade (97% to go)– They *already* charge average …
Port update This is crazy. pic.twitter.com/BRyEEES67z — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 30, 2025 CHINA EXPORTS PLUNGE IMPENDING SHORTAGES WEST COAST PORTS BRACE
With tariffs sweeping the planet, global shipping being cut off and knowing that 40% of fruits and vegetables are imported into the USA its time to protect yourself. We do not know how long this will last or what else in the agribusiness sector will not be delivered for food production. Marjory and I discuss …
Historically no nation can survive with a debt to gdp > than 130%. We are at 125. The “free money” has led to the “everything bubble.” It’s not just the stock market he sees correcting (collapsing.).
Tariffs are the great equalizer for trade on the world stage. No more allowing the EU, China, and other countries that hate us get away with tariffing our goods while we sit around with our thumbs up our collective asses. Fuck that! Boomers and rich white liberals hate them because they only care about Wall …
via notayesmanseconomics Finally we have arrived at Liberation Day when we will find out in full what US President Donald Trump plans on the tariff front. The Financial Times is presenting it in relatively apocalyptic terms. Investors are on edge ahead of Donald Trump’s plan to hit imports to the US with new tariffs “immediately” …
TRUMP ON AUTO INTEREST PAYMENTS AS TAX DEDUCTIONS: "We're going to do something that has never been done in this country before — If you buy a car in the United States that's made in the United States — we're going to let you deduct the interest payment for income tax." looks… pic.twitter.com/nw7cqhnZKl — amit …
The signs are clear, and they’re downright alarming. The new administration seems set on cutting 25-35% of the federal workforce, which could lead to as many as 800,000 job losses. That’s unthinkable. If this goes through, expect an additional 50 basis points added to the unemployment rate, and that’s before even factoring in the contractor …
BOSTIC: FAMILIES AND FIRMS ARE TELLING THE FED THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW WHERE THE ECONOMY IS HEADING PROJECTION OF INFLATION FOR THIS YEAR IS NOW PRETTY MUCH SIDEWAYS; NO RETURN TO TARGET UNTIL 2027 NO JUST SEE ONE CUT THIS YEAR, EXPECTING INFLATION TO BE VERY BUMPY — PiQ (@PiQSuite) March 24, 2025 BOSTIC: BUSINESSES …
Preliminary results must have been so sky high that even the usual heavy cooking must have struggled to hide UK hyperinflation this time https://t.co/IFuE5UuAOo — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) March 21, 2025 The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics said Friday it paused publication of its index of producer prices, a new disappointment for the data agency …
Doge is starting to have a material impact We may get a shocker tomorrow pic.twitter.com/UWrSEqmulb — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) March 6, 2025 ⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. JOB CUTS TOTAL 172,017 IN FEBRUARY; PREV. 49,795 – CHALLENGER *HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2020 🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/wbQvtScyTY — Investing.com (@Investingcom) March 6, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 Time to take a break from the Gavin Newsom/Karen Bass LA fire fiasco. And refocus on the Biden/Harris employment fiasco. After a year of ‘robust’ job growth private payrolls were subsequently revised by nearly 1 MILLION for April 2023 – March 2024. The most recent data points to additional huge revisions in Q2 …
